Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 011753
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
153 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WE/LL SEE A
DECREASING PRECIPITATION TREND TODAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S. MILD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TODAY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IL/IN MOVING EAST. MUCH
OF THE PCPN NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA.
WE/VE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE DAY BUT ADDED THE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AS BUFKIT OMEGA PROFILES SHOWED SOME LIFT IN
THE CLOUD LAYER.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AND WE/LL SEE SHOWERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-96. THIS SHORT WAVE IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM AND WILL BE
GONE BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PROVIDE FOR QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE.

TODAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... WITH THE BULK OF
SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND -3C AIR AT H8 POURING IN ON THE HEELS OF
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN
THE 50S WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPR LOW
AFTER THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVE
EAST.

THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING
ALOFT. SOME POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR... CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL WHICH WILL BE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY TURN THE CORNER TOWARD WARMER WEATHER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMING ALOFT SPREAD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST... LEADING TO TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS 70-
75 NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINED UNDER IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ITS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR DEVELOP...WHILE
SOME SITES MAY REMAIN IFR.

LATER THIS EVENING ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD LARGELY AFFECT THE I-94 AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE I-94 TAF SITES IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE I-96 SHOULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE IFR. FOR NOW HAVE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
TAFS MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THIS IS A CLOSE CALL.

AS WE WORK THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING HOURS WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY MOVE IN. EXPECT THE I-94 IFR TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING OR TOWARD NOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES
TODAY...HIGHEST OUT TOWARD THE 5 MILE POINT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04


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