Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 141152
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
652 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST TODAY WILL MAKE WAY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND MONDAY ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST ANOTHER ONE MOVES IN AND LIGHT SNOW IS
AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MUCH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY DEAL WITH SNOW POTENTIAL LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS IOWA/ILLINOIS/INDIANA LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. QPF IS LIGHT AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE LIGHT IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM NO HEADLINES WERE
ISSUED. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH
IOWA/ILLINOIS/INDIANA. LIGHT SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE BUT LESS
CERTAIN. THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS OR ECMWF SO CHC POPS SEEM THE WAY TO GO TUESDAY.

AFTER ANOTHER COLD DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL FEEL BALMY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT AND PROVIDES QUIET
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM
OFF THE PACIFIC TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN RELATED TO ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SFC TEMPS
WARM QUICKLY ABOVE FREEZING EARLY FRIDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS... BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GRTLKS REGION.
IT SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY... BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR WILL BE THE RULE TODAY BEFORE LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA
THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL TREND
DOWN TO MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR CATEGORY TONIGHT AS THE LIGHT SNOW
MOVES IN. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

WIND AND WAVE WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

RIVER GAUGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE FORMATION. A CONFIRMED ICE JAM WAS
REPORTED ALONG THE GRAND RIVER NEAR COMSTOCK PARK...CAUSING THE
RIVER TO RISE THERE. THE ICE IS JAMMING AT NORTH PARK BRIDGE.
RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WELL AS
THICKNESS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER ICE JAMS OCCUR. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RIVER LEVEL TRENDS CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ON MONDAY... WHICH
SHOULD HALT ICE FORMATION.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04


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