Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 190723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
323 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Dry conditions are expected through Saturday. High temperatures
will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday with
highs in the lower 70s. Sunday into early next week will be
unsettled with frequent rain showers and highs only reaching the
50s by mid week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

No impact weather expected and no changes made to the inherited
forecast. Confidence is high that dry conditions will prevail
with temperatures possibly making it into the mid to upper 70s
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

The mild weather will come to a screeching halt early next week as
the ridge over the southeast U.S. moves east and a deep upper trough
moves in from Canada.

We`ll have several opportunities for rain, the first of which is
Sunday. A cold front will move through Sunday afternoon. There`s not
much instability with the system and so we didn`t add thunder to the
grids. But this front has been well advertised by the models for
several days and so confidence is high that we`ll see rain from it.

The ecmwf stalls the front out over southeast Lower MI and develops
a wave on the frontal boundary that rides north through Lower MI
Monday night and Tuesday. We could see quite a bit of rain with this
if the ecmwf is correct. The gfs shows a little bit of this but
develops the wave farther southeast and pretty much misses Lower MI.
A deep upper trough will move over the state Tuesday into Wednesday.
Much colder air will flow into the cwa during this time and highs
will fall into the 50s for the latter portion of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Latest ir loop shows quite a bit of cirrus streaming in from
Wisconsin which won`t be a factor in air ops. VFR expected through
the period.


Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Based on buoy and coastal observations have downgraded the gale
warning north of Whitehall to a small craft advisory in line with
the advisory in effect for the rest of the nearshore zones.
Extended the small craft advisory areawide to expire this
afternoon. This is when WW3 guidance forecasts the 4-6 foot waves
we`re currently seeing at the buoys to subside to 1 to 3 feet as
winds veer to the west-northwest and weaken.


Issued at 1050 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

We continue to see river levels slowly recede for the most part
after the heavy rain event last weekend. The trend down will
continue through Saturday with dry weather expected through then.

The next rain event for the area beginning as early as Saturday
night and more likely Sunday will bring measurable rain, however it
appears that rain amounts will be limited to a quarter of an inch or
less. This will not cause any appreciable rises on the rivers and
streams. Additional light rainfall is also expected for the first
half of next week.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849.



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