314
FXUS63 KGRR 070557
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
157 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms ahead and along a cold front through
  tonight with a low chance of severe weather into this evening

- Next chance for rain is Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms ahead and along a cold front through
  tonight with a low chance of severe weather into this evening

Instability and shear remain marginal this afternoon and storms
have not shown much in terms of organization yet, but continued
sfc heating across the SE zones will increase chances for some
heftier updrafts there through the early evening. Main threat
will be strong downdrafts associated with descending precip cores
in pulse storms, although these will be isolated if they occur.

Severe threat diminishes after sunset with some showers persisting
along the slow moving front overnight into Monday morning across
the southeast forecast area.

- Next chance for rain is Wednesday

Sfc high builds in for Tuesday into early Wednesday then weak
moisture return sets up ahead of a shortwave trough and cold front
with another chance for scattered convection Wednesday, primarily
from late morning through afternoon. Once again, deep layer shear
and instability are marginal, but isolated pulse storm downbursts
are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Ceilings IFR variable to MVFR and drops in vis below 5SM with mist
and light rain will persist until gradual improvement occurs
between 12 and 18Z. After that, VFR is likely, though scattered
cumulus with bases above 3,000 feet may persist through the
afternoon. Winds will be generally be from the north at less than
10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Cold front moving down the coast this afternoon with north winds
gusting around 20 knots at Ludington. Waves appear to be mainly in
the 2 to 3 foot range and winds are below 20 knots this afternoon
but we will keep the Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft
advisory going since there is still the possibility of 4 foot
waves and gusts to 25 knots this evening.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...Ostuno