Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 011137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
737 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016


Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Low pressure will slowly spin across Lower Michigan bringing
occasional rain showers through the weekend. Fair weather will
arrive early next week as the low finally moves away.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Current radar loop looks remarkably similar to the past two
nights, with rain showers still streaming in from the southeast
into the SE forecast area as the upper cutoff low spins across
the Ohio Valley. It is slowly moving back north into Lower
Michigan before finally getting kicked east as longwave trough
moves into the western CONUS early next week.

Expect rain showers to continue into tonight and Sunday before
tapering off Sunday night as the occluded low moves out of the
forecast area. Marginally steep lapse rates this afternoon makes
diurnal enhancement of thunderstorms possible. We are seeing
cellular convection forming on radar south of the Ohio and Indiana
border already and expect this to move north today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Sfc/upper level ridging will bring fair and mild weather Monday night
through Wednesday. Temperatures will undergo a gradual moderating
trend early to mid next week as flow becomes southerly and the upper
level ridge builds in. High temperatures will reach the lower 70s
by Tuesday and will reach well into the 70s by Wednesday.

The next chance for showers will come Wednesday night through late
in the week as a sfc and upper level low pressure system moves slowly
northeast across the upper midwest. This system will pull a
stronger cold front through our area very late next week with
potential for a significantly cooler airmass to move in for next


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 737 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

IFR ceilings and visbys will be widespresend today as showers and
a few thunderstormsa are expected. The rain will continue into


Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory conditions
through Sunday night although low pressure will continue to bring
rain showers and possible a thunderstorm.


Issued at 1109 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

The Sycamore Creek is nearing its crest over a foot above
bankfull, and will begin its slow recession which may modulated
by any additional rainfall Friday into Saturday. Other rivers
approaching bankfull the next few days include the Red Cedar above
Williamston, the Looking Glass near Eagle, and the Grand at Ionia.
The current forecasts are dependent on roughly another 0.75 inches
falling in those basins through Saturday morning. Will hold off
on flood advisories for those rivers until confidence is higher.


.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Laurens
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