Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 182341
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
741 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quick Hitting Light Snow Tonight

- Potential for Lake Effect Snow Tuesday Night

- Chance of Snow/Mix Late Thursday/Friday

- Better Chance for Precipitation Next Weekend/Early Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

- Quick Hitting Light Snow Tonight

As the upper level trough continues to shift east, we`ll remain in
northwest flow for the next few days. Within this flow there will
be a series of shortwaves that will bring chances for light snow.
As warmer temperatures advect into the area lake effect snow
tapers off by the early evening. The 850 mb to 700 mb warm air
advection will bring another round of lift and paired with a quick
moving round of 500 mb positive vorticity advection should be
enough to produce light snow mainly for areas along and north of
I-96. Snow amounts under a half inch are expected and with lows in
the 20s could cause some slick spots for the Tuesday morning
commute. We lose our moisture during the day Tuesday resulting in
dry conditions with highs in the low to mid 40s.

- Potential for Lake Effect Snow Tuesday Night

Northwest winds and colder air move into the area Tuesday evening
bringing with chances for lake effect snow. 850 mb temperatures
are expected to be around -12C and with lake surface temperatures
5C it should be an overall good set up for at least some light
lake effect with the west northwest flow.

- Chance of Snow/Mix Late Thursday/Friday

Dry conditions return Wednesday as high pressure moves over the
region. Breaks in cloud cover will be possible Wednesday with more
sunshine expected for Thursday. Chances for precipitation increase
overnight Thursday into Friday as an upper low moves east into the
Great Lakes Region. An area of snow will track from the northwest
along a cold front bringing a light accumulation of snow. Ensembles
are narrowing in on the possibility for a few inches of snow
possible across the area.

- Better Chance for Precipitation Next Weekend/Early Next Week

A more impressive system appears to be on the horizon with the
potential to produce a rain/snow mix late in the weekend. A southern
stream system with deeper gulf moisture advection ahead of the low
will place lower Michigan in the warm sector. A mix of precipitation
is possible, including snow and/or freezing rain then rain.
Thunderstorms will also be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

IR loop shows the back edge of the stratocu moving east across the
lake. Concurrently, mid/high clouds were noted streaming southward
from Ontario. Snow showers were also diminishing. We are likely
to see the lower clouds decrease overnight leaving VFR conditions
at the terminals that are currently MVFR.

The next wave of low pressure will move southeast through the
state Tuesday. Gusty southwest winds to nearly 30kts are expected
from late tonight through mid afternoon. Winds will shift to the
northwest late Tuesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Winds briefly subside and turn to the southwest this evening
before building once more. Gusts up to 30 knots are expected but
could approach gales Tuesday morning. A front moves through during
the day Tuesday with northwest winds Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Winds and waves again are expected to hit Small Craft Advisory
levels with the potential for isolated gales during the day.

Winds and waves finally subside for Thursday and remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels through the weekend.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thielke/RAH
AVIATION...04
MARINE...RAH


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