Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 261145
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
745 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ITS GOING TO CONTINUE TO FEEL LIKE SUMMER ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. WARM AND DRY WILL BE THE STORY INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL. MID WEEK
LOOKS TO BE A BIT UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO NORMAL
READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WITH A DRY SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST FOCUS WAS
SQUARELY ON HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 3 DAYS. IT WILL BE WARM TO
BORDERLINE HOT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO PUSH TO AROUND 90 THE NEXT 3
DAYS. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 83 DEGREES SO ROUGHLY AROUND 7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS THE NEXT 3 DAYS...ARE RIGHT AROUND 100...AND
WE WILL NOT MAKE IT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THAT.

THINKING TODAY MOST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 86 TO 88 DEGREE RANGE
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +17C. MONDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
THREE...AS 850MB TEMPS PUSH TO +18-19C. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
AROUND 90. TUESDAY COULD BE EVEN WARMER...AS THE 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BE NOSING IN. 850MB TEMPS REACH +20C. THIS WOULD EQUATE
TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. WENT AROUND 90 AT THIS POINT THOUGH AS
I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WE WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE PLAINS. 700MB-300MB
LAYER WINDS ARE ALMOST DUE WESTERLY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE ADVECTING
IN. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY HAS ME
HESITANT TO GO ALL IN ON LOWER 90S. BOTTOM LINE...ITS GOING TO BE
WARM.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE KEPT AT BAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.
HEAT INDICIES DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND AS THE MOISTURE
RETURN IS MORE CENTERED WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HIGHER DEW POINT
AIR REALLY DOES NOT MAKE INROADS INTO THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL BRING DECENT CHCS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED. WE WILL SEE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PICK
UP TUE NIGHT AS A LLJ AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAN IN OVERNIGHT TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. THE LLJ WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING
AND WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG TO START. ANY STORMS TUE NIGHT LOOK TO
BE OF THE ELEVATED NATURE.

THE CHCS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON WED...AND WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
THAT SEVERE WX CHCS WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE STORMS. A DAY TIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE USUALLY HELPS THE CAUSE FOR SEVERE WX...HOWEVER
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT LOOK TO LIMIT THE HEATING
POTENTIAL/DESTABILIZATION ON WED. IN ADDITION...A LACK OF STRONG MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY TO 25 KNOTS OR
LESS.

LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE AREA BY
WED NIGHT. THIS WOULD CLEAR OUT THE PCPN CHCS WED AFTERNOON. WE THEN
COOL OFF A LITTLE AND EXPECT TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRI. THIS OCCURS AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SETS UP JUST EAST OF
THE AREA. WE WILL BE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE BROAD RIDGE TO OUR
WEST...HELPING TO CAP PCPN CHCS. THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL COOL US OFF
SOME...BUT A LACK OF REALLY COLD AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
AROUND 80 EACH DAY.

THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN AFTER THE TUE NIGHT/WED SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME IN
ON SAT. WE WILL SEE SOME DECENT MOISTURE RETURN START MOVING INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z THIS MORNING
TO 12Z MONDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY WITH BASES
AROUND 5000FT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED-BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 12000FT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY UNDER 7 KNOTS. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AT KMKG WITH A WEST WIND OF AROUND 7 KNOTS SHIFTING
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MID SUMMER CONDITIONS ON THE BIG LAKE AS LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL DOMINATE...AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. WAVES WILL BE 1 FOOT OR
LESS FOR THE MOST PART TODAY...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SIDING WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE SLACK
GRADIENT OF THE GFS.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH IF THE
GRADIENT COMES IN A BIT TIGHTER AND PRODUCES STRONGER WINDS. WATER
TEMPS HAVE FINALLY WARMED UP. COULD BE THE FIRST HIGHER END BEACH
HAZARD DAY IF IT CAME TOGETHER CORRECTLY. MEANING...WE WOULD FINALLY
HAVE A SOLID BEACH POPULATION WITH CONDITIONS THAT WILL BUT A LOT OF
PEOPLE IN THE WATER...WARMER LAKE TEMPS AND WARM AIR. THINKING RIGHT
NOW THOUGH IS WE WILL BE BELOW BEACH HAZARDS CRITERIA...PROBABLY
MORE 1-3 OR MAYBE 2-4 FOOTERS UP NORTH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NO FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE EXPECTED RAINFALL HAS RESULTED
IN FALLING RIVER LEVELS. A FEW SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE
BRIEF WITH THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD MOISTURE.

ALL RIVERS ARE WELL WITHIN BANKS AND THE STEADY OR FALLING TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. A MID WEEK COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...BUT EVEN THESE TOTALS
SHOULD WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IN REGARDS TO ANY HIGHLIGHTING AND
HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE


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