Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 261639
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1139 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR
TO EAST OF US-131 THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT BUT LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL SEE ONE TO AS MUCH AS
THREE INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 30S. DRY
WX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BRINGS LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING VERY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR TO EAST OF US-131. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY WEST OF
US-131 IN AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 1000-850
MB CONVERGENCE. HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THAT 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE THURSDAY ARE MOST PROBABLE NEAR TO NW OF A LINE FROM
KMKG TO KRQB... THOUGH MOST AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP IN THE 1-2 RATHER
THAN 1-3 INCH RANGE EVEN NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR
FRIDAY AND BRING SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW. SOME LARGE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES ARISE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM SHOWING
VIRTUALLY ALL ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA.
HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA.

THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY THAT IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH FEATURES
LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL
BE FINE TUNED ACCORDINGLY AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW FAST
MOVING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH SOME GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL AFTER THAT.

A BURST OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD EITHER END OR CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN BY SATURDAY. A SFC LOW
TRACKS WELL NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR NO POPS SEEMS
THE WAY TO GO. SINCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST
THEY WERE LEFT THERE. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE LIQUID FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
BE LIGHT WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE AND SFC RIDGING ARE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

EXPECT CEILINGS AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FEET AGL WITH TOPS AROUND 4000
FEET TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME SNOW WILL MOVE IN LATE
TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

RATHER MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE THURSDAY
LEADING TO INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS THAT WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN AN SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FIRST AND FOREMOST...RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN TIME.
THE ADVISORIES THAT REMAIN SHOULD ONLY REACH LOW END CRITERIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT ANY REAL PROBLEMS.

THE SECOND ITEM TO NOTE IS THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. EACH EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THESE EVENTS
COME LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
TO CHANGE SOME OF THE LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR LUDINGTON...BALDWIN AND REED
CITY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOTHING OF ANY MAJOR CONCERN. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN
BANK RISES NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...LAURENS





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