Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 181737 AAB
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Gusty west winds will continue through the afternoon. There is a
small chance for a brief shower this afternoon. Scattered to
broken mid level clouds expected this evening and tonight. There
may be some scattered 1000-2000ft cloud bases for a time Monday
morning, becoming 3000-4500ft scattered to broken during the day.
There is a small chance for some showers and thunderstorms Monday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 928 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017)

UPDATE...
Surface low pressure will lift north east from the western UP to
Canada today. West winds will gust 20-30 knots today with the
highest gusts near Fond du Lac and Sheboygan, closer to the low.
Still a small chance for a brief shower and maybe a thunderstorm,
with the cyclonic flow and cooler air aloft. Most areas will be
dry.

MARINE...
Small craft advisory now in effect through the afternoon. West
winds are gusting 20 to 25 knots. They will diminish this
evening. Waves will be 1-2 feet.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 703 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
Sct-bkn010-030 stratocumulus will occur over portions of south
central and se WI this AM but rise to 3.5-5.0 kft for the late
morning and afternoon over all of srn WI. Isold showers for the
afternoon, possibly a tstorm. Partly cloudy skies for tnt.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 353 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

Showers north of Madison will continue newd and exit east central WI
by 11z. The strong shortwave trough over sw WI will track newd to
Ontario, Canada by this evening. Cyclonic flow today and cooler air
aloft will result in isolated showers and possibly a tstorm for the
afternoon. Cold advection on breezy wly winds will keep temps in the
70s today with more comfortable humidity as the dewpoints fall into
the 50s. Weak cold advection will continue tonight with low temps
ranging from 55-60F.

LONG TERM...

Monday and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

A broad trough will remain in the area early this week. Weak waves
are expected to move through both Monday and Tuesday, bringing
precip chances. The showers will likely be mostly diurnally driven
each day, so best chance will be from late morning into early
evening. Better moisture and instability will be on Monday, so
have higher precip chances and mention of thunder. Highs will be a
few degrees below normal for early in the week.

Wednesday through Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium:

The flow will turn more zonal mid-week, allowing a return of
deeper moisture and warmer temps. Shower/storm chances will also
increase during this time as moisture/instability and forcing
increase with low pressure moving into the region.

Models are in pretty good agreement that the first focus of
storms will be with temperature and moisture advection on
Wednesday, with storms likely Wednesday night as the main wave and
low move through.

Precip should wind down early Thursday, with mainly dry weather
for the rest of the day. Models aren`t in great agreement beyond
this. They agree that there will be more waves and resultant
shower/storm chances late in the week, but struggle with timing
and placement of the systems.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Showers and mid level clouds will exit srn WI
by 11-12z. However sct-bkn010-030 stratocumulus will occur over
south central WI this AM but rise to 3.5-5.0 kft for the late
morning and afternoon over all of srn WI. Isold showers for the
afternoon, possibly a tstorm. Partly cloudy skies for tnt.

MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 11 am until 7
pm for breezy wly winds in response to cyclogenesis from the
northern Great Lakes into Ontario, Canada.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Marquardt
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Monday THROUGH Saturday...DDV



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