Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 230847
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
247 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH
10 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
TODAY WHILE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND
MOVES ACROSS THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP ACROSS WISCONSIN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. DUE
TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS
TODAY WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 10 ABOVE...THEN DROP SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNRISE BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN DECENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLUMN
REMAINS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THE WARM ADVECTION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE AFTER
12Z TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND RENEWED ARCTIC FRONT COMBINE TO GENERATE AT
LEAST SCT SHSN ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MAINTAINING THE DRY LOOK
WHILE THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT QPF. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONG VORT BEING DISPLACED MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE PRIOR TRACKS SO THERE APPEARS TO BETTER SUPPORT FOR DCVA
INDUCED FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. SO WILL CERTAINLY RETAIN THE GOING POPS AND CONSIDER
BOOSTING A SMIDGE AS WELL. THE BETTER VORT FORCING AND MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL FORCING
MAINTAINING AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EVEN
AFTER PRIMARY VORT SHIFTS EAST. STILL SEEING THE STRONG WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET CORE OF AROUND 60 KNOTS PUNCHING INTO WI WITHIN
WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL INVERSION EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT
NONETHELESS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN THE RENEWED COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME
THOUGH STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. 925 TEMPS DROP OFF TO
AROUND -15C TO -19C.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ARCTIC THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE. 1036 MILLIBAR HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH RIDGING SOUTHEAST INTO WI. ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IOWA SHORTWAVE AND NE FRINGE
OF BAROCLINIC ZONE SNOWS...KEEPING THIS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. GEM IS
THE OUTLIER SOLUTION BRINGING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSENSUS OF ECMWF/GFS AND NAM. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY BUT
COLD. 925 TEMPS INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS...SO HIGHS IN THE
TEENS FAHRENHEIT SEEM REASONABLE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAXES NOTED. THOUGH MUCH OF THE
VORTICITY IS OF THE SHEARED/ELONGATED VARIETY AND RH IS RATHER
SCANT. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THE FAR SE CORNER FOR POTENTIAL
LAKE EFFECT. MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT THIS. ICE MASK WILL HAVE A
SAY ON THIS POTENTIAL BUT WITH 850 TEMPS PROGGD TO BE -20 TO
-22C...ANY ICE FREE AREAS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE DELTA T. MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE COLD WITH SUPERBLEND SHOWING SOME SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS WITH LOWER TEENS AT BEST. GFS THE COLDEST SOLUTION THOUGH
925 TEMPS AVERAGING -16C TO -20C.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATES THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST WIND
REGIME AROUND THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME WAA KICKING IN
FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE WARMER 925 TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF WOULD ONLY
RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING NEAR 20. GFS IS COLDER AND SUPERBLEND
TAKES THAT INTO ACCOUNT...SO STILL LOOKING AT MOST HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WRN US WITH 500 MILLIBAR FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
850 MILLIBAR REGIME SETS UP WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE DEPARTED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
TO KEEP THE BETTER FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER WILL RETAIN
THE SUPERBLEND POP FOR THE SOUTHWEST CWA WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE
QUICKER ON BRINGING PRECIP TOWARDS SW WI.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE STRONG SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW EJECTING
A SYSTEM TOWARDS WI. WHILE DIFFERENCES ON THE DETAILS THERE IS
CONSENSUS FOR SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SOME FAIRLY GENEROUS
AMOUNTS PROGGD BY THE ECMWF THOUGH THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT.
STILL A LONG WAYS OFF THOUGH THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS 850 TEMPS
SUGGEST PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW THOUGH ECMWF LIFTS A LITTLE STRONGER850
LOW FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS WI/IL BORDER AND THIS BRINGS SOME OF THE
MILDER 850 TEMPS A BIT MORE NORTHWARD. GOING HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FROM THE SUPERBLEND LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF WISCONSIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING
TONIGHT. ALSO LOOK FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH 2KFT WINDS BLOWING
45-50KTS. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LEADING WARM ADVECTION
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR


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