Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 031557
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR THIS PERIOD. LLVL RH PROGS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY WRAPPING SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX. THIS
WOULD KEEP THE SRN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD NORTH OF TAF SITES.
WITH INFLUX OF DRIER SURFACE TDS THE CU RULE IS NOT LOOKING
FAVORABLE FOR SRN WI THOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC H5 FLOW ALOFT AND
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST KEEPING AN EYE ON SRN EXTENT OF THE CU
FIELD AS IT TRANSLATES SEWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL WI THIS
AFTN...THOUGH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VRY DRY COLUMN TO HOLD SWAY
VCNTY TAF SITES.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DRIER...MUCH MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS MRNG.  SOME PATCHY MID-CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET SHOULD THIN
AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MRNG AS WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
PUSH DIMINISHES AND BECOMES NEUTRAL.  BROADSCALE TROFFING WL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT WITH AXIS OF UPPER JET OVER
SRN WI.  LIKELY TO BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER
AIR SURGE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MORE THAN FEW-SCT CU.  SECOND WEAK
FRONT/DENSITY DISCONTINUITY MOVES ACROSS NRN WI TODAY AND ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS EVE.  MAY BE ENOUGH OF A COOL AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS SECOND
FRONT TO BRING A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST CWA BEFORE RH
THINS OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...MUCH QUIETER FOR THESE PERIODS WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES BOTH DAYS...EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A
SLOWER EXIT OF THE HIGH...SO THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY. KEPT
SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW. HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THEN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH. NOT GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF WAVES...SO POPS
STILL ON THE LOWER END AND SPREAD OUT THROUGH THESE LAST 3 DAYS OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. COOLER TEMPS MORE LIKELY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...AS ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST MOST DAYS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD LIES AHEAD.  FEW-SCT CU LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER AIR SETTLING INTO SOUTHERN WI
SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF CU AND QUICKLY RAISE THE CLOUD BASE TO VFR
LEVELS.  NORTHWEST BREEZES TO PICK UP THIS MRNG BUT GUSTS WL REMAIN
MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KTS.

MARINE...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO CAUSE A FEW GUSTS TO REACH 20-22 KTS.  WL HOLD OFF ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO MOST GUSTS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. HIGHER ELEVATION OF SGNW3 WIND EQUIPMENT MAY REACH 25KTS
A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV


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