Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 201517 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1017 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.UPDATE...

No change to the forecast for today.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period under high
pressure. Low pressure passing well south of the state is the cause
of some mid-high level clouds over the southern half of the forecast
area. Will see diurnal cumulus develop as well late this morning and
afternoon, especially north of the edge of the higher clouds, that
will dissipate late this afternoon into the early evening. Light
east to southeast winds during the day will turn northeast this
evening, and then north overnight, behind the low passing to the
south.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will keep winds light and wave heights low through the
weekend, with winds and waves increasing Monday ahead of an
approaching trough of low pressure.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

Short wave trough over eastern Kansas on IR satellite imagery is
expected to track across central Illinois this afternoon/evening
..with a second short wave near the ne North Dakota/nw Minnesota
border area ready to drop south in the wake of the first trough
tonight.

The first trough will spread some mid-high level clouds across at
least the southern third to half of the forecast area today. Not
much change in 925mb temperatures so highs similar to yesterday
though will keep trend from previous forecast of slightly cooler
high temperatures in the south due to the increased cloud cover.
Still cooler by Lake Michigan with light easterly winds.

Cloud cover diminishes tonight as trough moves away to the east.
Second short wave passing west of state through Minnesota overnight
into Iowa by 12Z Saturday with little moisture. Light winds and
clearing skies will bring lows down into the mid 40s.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY - Confidence...High
00z models not showing any surprises. Very quiet wx regime
continues with surface/850 high dominating with dry air/subsidence.
An onshore flow is expected each day due to either diurnally induced
lake breeze formation or overall synoptic scale flow favoring the
wind off the lake. A mid level wave is still proggd to ride sse
from srn MN into the mid miss vly region on Saturday. This is
tracking even further west of the area than prior runs. Highly
amplified mid level ridging works in for Sunday. The mid level
ridge axis shifts to our east and the area will see an increasingly
southwest flow at 500 millibars. In addition the low level anticyclone
shifts east and allows for a southerly 925/850 flow from all the
models to lead to further warming across srn WI into Monday. 00Z
runs show precip staying west of cwa through 00z tue. Superblend
did show some slights in our far west durg the aftn so will leave
those as is for now.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium
Surface boundary is proggd to be a focus for shra/tsra along with
increasing mid level dynamics from shortwave activity and
favorable upper jet streak circulations. Expecting an uptick in
dew points. Also seeing some higher CWASP values coming into play
esp for Wednesday. The 00z ECMWF shows a stronger wave moving into
nw WI by the end of the day so perhaps some better dynamics
arriving. So for now the superblend pops are reasonable showing
the increasing pops due to an expected more active pattern setting
up for much of the upcoming week. Differences appear heading into
Thursday with the ECMWF taking one low to our northeast and drying
things out while the GFS shows another low taking shape and
bringing more convection back to srn WI

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR conditions will persist through the
forecast period under high pressure. Low pressure passing well
south of the state will spread some mid-high level clouds up
across the southern third to half of the forecast area. Will see
diurnal cumulus develop as well late this morning and afternoon,
especially north of the edge of the higher clouds, that will
dissipate late this afternoon into the early evening. Light east
to southeast winds during the day will turn northeast this
evening, and then north overnight, behind the low passing to the
south.

MARINE...High pressure will keep winds light and wave heights
low through the weekend, with winds and waves increasing Monday
ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Collar



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