Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 220845
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

THE DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING WITH THE LOW STRATUS
DECK NOT DISSIPATING UNTIL POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS DROPPED
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED BUT NO RAIN AS THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER WI
TODAY INTO TNT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ LIFTING NEWD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TNT. LGT ELY FLOW AND VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG TNT.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS TRY TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD HELP WARM FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD AND THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME QPF IS SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

GOOD SHOT OF FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN FOCUSES ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA REMAINING MAINLY WEST
OF THE AREA.

BEST POPS KEPT FOR SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...CLOSEST TO THE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOW POPS IN THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY FORECAST SUNDAY...AS AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIR MASS BECOMING CAPPED WITH VERY WARM AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. BROUGHT BACK LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT MEAN LAYER CAPES
SATURDAY...WITH GOOD ELEVATED CAPES THEREAFTER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE VERY HIGH
SATURDAY...AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN ARE IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH
RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...THOUGH ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. 925
MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN COOLER. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 96 TO 104 DEGREE
RANGE. THUS...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY IN LATER
FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING WITH TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BOTH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES. GFS SEEMS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. IT STILL LOOKS WARM AND HUMID
THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG STORMS WITH THE FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14-15Z THIS
AM. IT WILL THEN TAKE A FEW HOURS TO BURN OFF THE LOW STRATUS.
HAZY CONDITIONS WITH 3-5SM MAY PREVAIL NEAR LAKE MI INCLUDING KMKE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM DURING THE MID TO
LATE EVENING OVER ALL OF SRN WI WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF DENSE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS VERY LOW VSBYS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN FOR TNT.

&&

.MARINE...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z. THE FOG WILL
TRANSITION TO HAZE BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH VSBYS OF
3-5SM. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM TNT BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER THE FOG WILL MAINLY BE NEAR THE SHORELINE OR
EXTEND MORESO OVER THE LAKE. NEVERTHELESS...BOATERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD



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