Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 260315
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
915 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...CLOUDS MAY PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...OR BRIEFLY CLEAR BUT RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MRNG. /SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION/ OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
FALL RAPIDLY IN THE WEST RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
CIRRUS SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD HELP LEVEL OFF TEMPS IN THE WEST. LOWERED
TEMPS OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST.

NOT IMPOSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET GENERATED ALONG THE
LAKESHORE ON WED DUE TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...RECENT DESCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE
SHOWS CLOUDS FAIRLY THIN...AROUND 500FT THICK. HOWEVER STRONG
INVERSION ABOVE CLOUDS AROUND 2K FEET. SOME ST REDEVELOPMENT NOTED
ON 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY AROUND KBUU LAST HOUR AS WELL. WITH LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
VICINITY...CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON WIDESPREAD...PROLONGED CLEARING
IN ERN TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN LIGHT
ONSHORE LATE TNGT INTO WED MRNG WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRATUS
RETURNING OR REDEVELOPING OVER LAKESHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST DECREASING
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...HAVE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW PACK SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPS TO DROP TONIGHT.
WATCHING CLOUDS UPSTREAM AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT MAY DISRUPT
SOME OF THE COOLING. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS.

MODELS SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS EVEN MORE. LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
AFTERNOON TO AREAS WEST OF MADISON. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WITH THE
SNOW ON GROUND SHOULD HOLD TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS MILD AS
AIRMASS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST GIVEN BARE GROUND AND SOME SUNSHINE.
LOWERED HIGHS A TOUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM MN INTO WI WED
NT AND EXIT THE STATE THU AM. THERE IS WEAK BUT ORGANIZED LIFT
WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SHORT TIME OF SATURATION. WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD THAT VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. NWLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO WEAKEN BY THU AFTERNOON
AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. THE HIGH AND
INITIALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE FOR COLD TEMPS
THU EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A STRONG WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING.

THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM FRI THROUGH
SAT NT. STRONG MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO SATURATE
SOUNDINGS FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE THU NT WITH CHANCES OF LGT SNOW
OVER THE NW CWA. THE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING WILL INCREASE
FRI AM AND BELIEVE SATURATION AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE. UP TO ONE
INCH OF SNOW IS FORECAST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SAT WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE PASSING LOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND SRN CANADA WILL ARRIVE LATE SAT NT WITH NWLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR SUN. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN PREVAIL ON MON
BEFORE ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR TUE AND BEYOND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST DECREASING MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. WATCHING MAINLY VFR CIGS UPSTREAM AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS. EITHER
WAY...DOES LOOK LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON SNOW CHANCES DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
DUSTING OR SO POSSIBLE THEN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS GO BACK DOWN AS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH...WITH VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



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