000
FXUS63 KMKX 190231
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
931 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler pattern through the weekend may result in frost and
  freeze concerns Fri nt and again Sat nt especially in the
  Wisconsin River Valley.

- Dry pattern through this weekend, but a chance for rain
  Monday evening through Tuesday morning.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 930 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The rain has ended over se WI while the clearing line is moving
across south central WI with a cold front over wrn WI. The cold
front which extends from low pressure over nrn Ontario will move
into ern WI by the early morning hours, as the low pressure
area over IN moves toward the lower Great Lakes. The wly winds
and cold advection may be able to lower temps into the lower 30s
nw of Madison by morning, but any period of freezing temps
should be very short if reached at all. Breezy wly winds are
then expected the remainder of Fri as the Ontario low pressure
area deepens as it moves into srn Hudson Bay. Low level instability
will lead to scattered to broken high based cumulus during the
afternoon. High temps in the lower to middle 50s still looks
good.


Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 307 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Tonight through Friday night:

Southern WI will be sandwiched between two surface lows this
evening bring additional shower chances. As the southern low
currently located over MO to lifts across central IL/IN through
this evening, expect some of the rainfall activity to pick up
along the WI/IL border with totals nearing a quarter of an inch,
but could see a pocket or two of locally higher. However,
rainfall elsewhere looks to remain light with amounts around a
few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an inch.

The southern low is progged to push east later tonight and
drier air moves into the region and rain chances diminish later
this evening. However, thinking the cloud cover may linger a bit
longer, but should gradually clear by daybreak Friday. Given
the clearing may see temps dip into the mid to upper 30s and
result in some patchy frost, but given the narrow wind between
the clouds clearing and temps dropping along with winds looking
to remain high enough, not confident on seeing widespread frost
development.

Northwesterly winds begin to pick up overnight into Friday as
the pressure gradient remains tight over southern WI as the
northern, stronger surface low meanders over central Ontario
while high pressure builds across the Plains. This will result
in breezy to gust northwesterly winds through Friday afternoon
with gusts 25-35 mph.

Otherwise, Friday should remain mostly dry with the building
surface high to the west. However cannot rule out a few light
showers across our central WI counties on the backside of the
northern low paired with the lingering upper-level trough, but
potential remains low (<15%). Friday should remain fairly clear
and sunny and despite the CAA/northwesterly winds, expecting to
see temps rise into the lower 50s by the afternoon. Winds will
gradually ease, but still remain breezy as the Ontario low
slides further east and influence from thew high spreads further
east into the start of the weekend.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 307 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Saturday through Thursday:

High pressure and zonal upper-level flow will persist through
much of the weekend. This will keep temps relatively cooler with
daily highs around or just below normal and overnight temps in
the 30s. Could see nightly frost potential Saturday and Sunday
nights given the near freezing temps and light winds. High
pressure will begin to slide further south-southeast ahead of an
upper-level trough early next week. Meanwhile southerly flow
will increase and looking to have a brief warm up toward the
start of next week. Then a more active pattern is expected for
Tuesday as long range models bring a surface low across the
region along with increased rain chances.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 930 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas of MVFR Cigs late this evening over ern WI will clear by
early morning Friday. VFR conditions will then prevail through
Fri into Fri nt. Westerly wind gusts of 25-35 kts for late
Fri AM through the afternoon.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 307 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Lake Michigan will be sandwiched between two areas of low
pressure. Expect lighter winds to continue through the evening
as the southern low pressure centered over MO this afternoon
lifts across central IL/IN. Meanwhile the northern low across
Ontario is progged to meander into the Hudson Bay region and
deepen through Friday. Expect a stronger pressure gradient
develop over the region for Friday with high pressure building
across the Plains resulting in 25-30 knot northwesterly winds
for Friday. High pressure is expected to gradually work its way
south-southeast through the weekend with lighter winds over Lake
Michigan. Then southerly winds return by the start of next week
ahead of a developing low over the Plains.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM
     Friday to 7 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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