Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 200155
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
855 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE SPREAD ALL THE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
FCST AREA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/CDFNT DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THIS FARTHER SOUTH TRAJECTORY.
IT/S PRETTY MINOR STUFF AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MEASURE...MAINLY
EXPECT TRACE AMOUNTS. DRY AIR IS PLENTIFUL JUST UPSTREAM...SO
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LOWER CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP
SOUTH AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY.
THE GOING FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED PRETTY WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING
ON MONDAY...THEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BY ABOUT MID DAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. THESE
SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE MVFR THRESHOLD...BUT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WE COULD SEE A FEW MVFR CIGS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SEEMS OVERLY PESSIMISTIC...SO WILL
KEEP IT VFR FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...NO AIRPORT OPERATIONAL CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE SOME STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT AREN/T SHOWING UP VERY WELL AT THE LAND
OBSERVATIONS RIGHT NOW...BUT ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE SKIES MAY CLEAR BEHIND THE
WAVE...THOUGH A COUPLE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME LOW STRATUS
LATER IN THE NIGHT. KEPT SOME CLOUD COVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY.

COULD SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS BRUSH THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID OR LATE MORNING...WITH THE CLOUDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. A NNELY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN WI FROM MON NT INTO TUE AND STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. A NELY FLOW FROM LAKE
MI AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES OF 11-13C WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO THE STRATUS LINGERING AT LEAST THROUGH TUE AM OVER FAR ERN WI.

A MERIDIONAL SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES FOR TUE NT THROUGH WED NT. FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOL ON TUE BUT WARMING INTO WED.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON THU. A SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER WAVE WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE MS RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST OVER THE FAR WRN CWA DUE TO THESE
FEATURES. A WSWLY FLOW WILL THEN BRING MILD TEMPS FOR FRI AND THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT
ON SAT BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK IF IT DOES OCCUR.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LOWER STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PRETTY GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SKIES WILL
TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING MVFR.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE TOWARD OPEN
WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING


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