032
FXUS63 KMKX 290310
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1010 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers this evening, with another round
  possible around daybreak on Monday. Severe storms and any
  flooding is very unlikely.

- Another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder
  Tuesday evening/night. A stronger system with additional
  showers / thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday,
  possibly continuing into Friday.

- Above normal temps likely Monday through Thursday, cooling off
  towards normal this weekend.

- Dense fog is likely over our nearshore waters during the
  overnight hours. Some dense fog may occur inland in lakeshore
  adjacent counties overnight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 953 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Forecast details largely remain on track. Some fog has occurred
on a more on and off basis along the lakeshore from Kenosha
through Sheboygan as marine fog has been advected inland on
northeast to southeast winds. Winds right now are at a relative
minimum with a warm front stalled over the area. Currently vis
has generally improved from Milwaukee southward, with fog now
more prevalent over Sheboygan, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties.

CAM soundings show fog generally continuing through the
overnight hours along the lakeshore north of Milwaukee with
conditions improving around daybreak tomorrow. We`ll monitor
visibilities for more widespread visibility drops, rather than
confined pockets. This`ll lend more confidence regarding the
issuance of a dense fog advisory.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Tonight through Monday night:

Fog has redeveloped from MKE to ENW and should spread nwd along
the lake as the stalled front moves nwd as a warm front. The fog
will be dense nearest to the lake cannot rule out a Dense Fog
Advisory. Otherwise occasional lgt showers and drizzle should
continue via 925-700 mb warm, moist advection and frontogenesis.
Moist adiabatic lapse rates and very minimal elevated CAPE will
greatly limit the thunderstorm threat into the early evening.

For tnt the low over ern NE will move toward se MN while it
occludes, which may prevent the warm front from lifting entirely
into central WI. A n-s band of showers and storms is expected
to develop ahead of the upper wave and large dry slot rotating
around the upper low. This band of showers and storms should
move newd into srn WI from 02-08Z, but lapse rates remain very
poor with very minimal MUCAPE. The SVR storm threat is very
marginal and near the IL border.

The cold front or occluded front will then pass Mon AM into the
early afternoon, while the low pressure area tracks from se MN
to wrn Lake Superior. Mild temps are still expected with the
stronger cold advection holding off until the evening. a few
lingering showers are possible especially along the front. Temps
will drop into the lower to middle 40s by sunrise Tue.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Tuesday through Sunday:

Dry and clear conditions expected Tuesday, with temperatures
climbing to near 70 degrees. Light winds may shift onshore from
Lake Michigan during the afternoon hours, keeping temperatures
cooler in those regions. Southerly winds increase Tuesday evening
ahead of a trough swinging through the region Tuesday night,
bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. Generally
expecting elevated instability to be the main driver of lightning
potential.

After the main trough propagates northeastward Wednesday morning,
a developing system in the lee of the Colorado Rockies allows for warm
frontogenesis across Iowa into southern Wisconsin late Wednesday,
bringing additional rounds of showers. A few elevated
thunderstorms are again possible as the warm front lifts northward
into central Wisconsin overnight. Continuous WAA will keep
temperatures above normal into Thursday.

Thursday, low pressure propagates into the Upper Midwest, bringing
best chances for thunderstorms as southern Wisconsin remains
firmly in the warm sector with strong southerly winds bringing in
continued warm temperatures. Modeling diverges in solutions for
Friday into Saturday, with faster models indicating cold frontal
passage Friday morning and therefore clearing conditions into
Saturday. Slower modeling solutions, specifically the GFS,
indicate continuing overrunning precipitation through Saturday.
However, modeling generally agrees that southern Wisconsin will be
well within the northwesterly flow by Saturday, returning
temperatures to normal through Sunday.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1010 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A mixture of VFR to LIFR ceilings currently exist over southern
WI with visibility down to a quarter mile generally north of
Milwaukee along the Lake Michigan shoreline. Fog and low
ceilings are generally expected to continue into the overnight
hours, with on and off chances for rain showers. Winds will be
light and southerly overnight and there may be a brief period of
southwesterly wind shear to 45 knots from now into the early
morning as winds ease below an exiting jet aloft. Winds tomorrow
will grow southwesterly and breezy in the afternoon.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A stalled front is draped across the southern end of the lake
today. Low pressure around 29.7 inches over northeast Nebraska
will track to southeast Minnesota by Monday morning. The low will
bring the front north to central Lake Michigan this evening with
winds shifting from northeast to southeasterly. Areas of dense fog
may then form over southern and central Lake Michigan during this
time. Brisk east winds will continue over far northern Lake
Michigan through the night and into Monday with a few gale force
gusts possible. Modest southwest winds will then prevail Monday
night into Tuesday. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the
nearshore waters from North Point Lighthouse to Winthrop Harbor
until midnight. Another Dense Fog Advisory may be needed north
of North Point Lighthouse late this afternoon and evening.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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