Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 081029
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
530 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTON...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW STRETCHED ACROSS MOST OF ONTARIO CANADA
WILL EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.  THE DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT COUPLED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND IT WILL BRING DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LAPSE RATES/CAPES THIS
AFTERNOON LOOK PRETTY DECENT.  THE BULK OF THE MODELS ALL DEPICT A
DECENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO WILL HANG ONTO SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN CWA
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BRING ENOUGH DEEPER MIXING TO MIX
OUT THE DEWPOINTS...THEY SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A
WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TO ABOUT 11-12C TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ON WED IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LAKE BREEZE/WEAK COLD
FRONT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHERN WI. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
925MB TEMPS OF 14 TO 16C.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WED NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S AND SOME
PATCHY INLAND FOG. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE THERE TO GET FOG.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THU AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP TO AROUND
80 INLAND. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE THU NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY WITH
STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE LOW
LEVEL JET PROVIDES A LITTLE FOCUS INTO SOUTHERN WI AND MODELS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY WEAK CAPE.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE WILL GET BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN 850MB THERMAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN
WI AREA. THIS WILL MEAN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH WI ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO
THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THE 00Z GFS BACKED OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LOW BUT THE 00Z ECMWF KEPT THE STRONG LOOK TO IT. CHANCES ARE
THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND SUNSHINE THAT
SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN WI...BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST DIURNAL CLOUDS EACH DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.


&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 14/15Z THIS
MORNING AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION COMPETES WITH SOME LINGERING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. ONCE THIS GETS MIXED OUT LOOK VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AS A RESULT OF A
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON.  LOOK FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC


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