Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 231729
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1129 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.UPDATE...Last vestiges of warm air advection mid-clouds have
pushed over Lake Michigan. Expect mostly sunny skies for the rest
of the daylight hours with a light southwest wind. Temperatures
have already warmed into the upper 30s to around 40 and should
peak in the mid 40s most locations.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR conditions expected for this TAF period.
Increasing low level winds will cause low level wind shear
situation late tonight into Friday morning before surface winds
become increasingly gusty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 911 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017)

UPDATE...Expect lingering mid-level clouds over eastern CWA to
scoot off to the east this morning as low level warm air advection
shifts off to the east. Subsequent mostly clear conditions and low
level southwesterly winds should result in a warmer day with
temperatures peaking in the low to mid 40s.

MARINE...No change to ongoing Small Craft Advisory for later
tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 528 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017)

UPDATE...The forecast is on track for today as the clouds
continue to decrease from west to east across srn WI.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...VFR conditions today and tonight.
Mid level clouds will gradually clear from west to east across
Srn WI this morning. Otherwise, sct high clouds will occur at
times. LLWS will be possible for Fri morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 326 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.

The flurries have mostly ended across srn WI, with clearing
moving into wrn WI. The clearing will be gradual though, as
clouds will redevelop at times via warm advection. Otherwise,
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will prevail today, with
light swly winds and weak warm advection continuing. 925 mb temps
suggest high temps in the lower to middle 40s today. For tnt, swly
flow and warm advection will increase, as strong low pressure
moves east across srn WI. Thus, temps will gradually warm from
late evening into Fri morning.

Friday Through Saturday Night...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models continue to show robust warm air advection into Friday, on
gusty south to southwest winds. This should bring mild
temperatures into the area. Went with highs into the middle 50s in
most of the area, with upper 50s in the far west. May be a few
degrees too cold, especially if clouds hold off until later in the
day.

The limiting factor will be lack of a deep mixing layer, though
the inversion will be lifting during the afternoon. Will have to
watch the gusts Friday afternoon, as they may get well over 30
knots, especially if the inversion can rise more.

Models bring the cold front eastward through the area later Friday
afternoon into early Friday evening. There is decent low level
frontogenesis during this period. A 500 mb shortwave trough with
good differential cyclonic vorticity advection also slides east
through the area Friday evening. Forecast soundings are having a
tough time saturating through a deep layer later Friday into
Friday evening. Best chances for any rain will be in the far north
and northeast portions of the area. Continued low end PoPs for
these areas.

Cold air advection later Friday night into early Saturday brings
cooler air back into the area. High pressure is expected to pass
from the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi River Valley
Saturday into Saturday night. The influence of this high should
bring quiet weather to the area. More seasonable temperatures are
expected for Saturday into Saturday night.

LONG TERM...

Sunday Through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are in decent agreement with bringing another round of
robust warm air advection to the region Sunday into Monday. This
should bring the warmer temperatures back into the area,
especially for Monday. Highs should reach into the lower to middle
50s at least, and perhaps warmer with the good low level mixing.

The broad but rather flat 500 mb ridge axis gradually shifts east
of the region later Monday. The models then begin to differ with
timing and placement of features with the next system moving
through the region Monday night into Tuesday night. The GFS is
quickest with the cold frontal passage Monday night, with the
Canadian and ECMWF holding of until Tuesday.

This system seems to have a lack of moisture with the cold front,
as there is little to no QPF with it. There are differences with
the 500 mb shortwave trough timing and placement Tuesday into
Tuesday night. For now, will lean on consensus model blended PoPs
and temperatures during this period.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions today and tonight. Mid level clouds will gradually
clear from west to east across Srn WI this morning. Otherwise,
sct high clouds will occur at times.

MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for 3 am Friday until 6 am
Sat. Breezy swly winds on Friday will become wnwly Friday night,
after the passage of a cold front. Wind gusts to 30 knots are
expected.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...MBK
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...Wood


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