Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 222124
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON TIMING OF PRECIP AND HANDLING FOG TRENDS.
MILD AND MOIST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT. ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE MOIST AXIS POINTING RIGHT INTO SRN WI WITH A GRADUAL
ADVECTION PATTERN NOTED. MID LEVEL ACROSS HERE IS ZONAL WITH THE
MAIN UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH IN TX. LOWS WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH POSITIVE TEMP ADVECTION LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SENDING MIXED SIGNALS ON HOW DENSE FOG
GETS TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OFF THE DECK AND THAT MAY LIMIT
THINGS FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND IN A WIDESPREAD FASHION.
NEVERTHELESS EXPECT IT TO REMAIN FOGGY BUT WILL ELECT TO NOT ISSUE
A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. OVERALL LOOKS CLOUDY...MILD...FOGGY WITH
SOME DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR BRINGS A BAND
OF SHRA THROUGH HERE IN THE 03-07Z RANGE BUT THEN NOT MUCH AFTER
THAT THROUGH 12Z.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

GRADUAL PROGRESSION AND AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH. THIS
KEEPS SRN WI IN A BROAD SSW UPPER FLOW. SHORTWAVE ACTION IN THIS
FLOW INCREASES ESP AFTER 18Z. WILL HAVE DEFINITE POPS. THERMAL
PROFILE SUPPORTS RAIN CWA WIDE. CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPS BUT
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH TEMP ADVECTION TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOW 50S
IN MANY LOCALES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED FROM SW IL TO FAR ERN UPPER MI...AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. A CONSENSUS OF
MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW TO 980 MB BY 12Z MON OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI
AND TAKE IT TO THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z TUE. THE UPPER
WAVE AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL BRING PWS OF ONE INCH AND
WIDESPREAD MDT RAINFALL SUN NT. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUN AFT
THROUGH THE NIGHT IS AROUND 1 INCH. 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
BE ON THE TRAILING END OF THE SYSTEM FOR MON AND MON NT AS THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUM AS THE CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST
MON AM AND THE SNOW CONTINUES MON NT. ANY LINGERING LGT SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END TUE AM WITH POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WI
FOR THE AFT AND NIGHT. SFC TEMPS TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MON ON BRISK WLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THEN RETURN FOR THE NEW WEEK.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG SEWD FROM CANADA INTO THE
REGION FOR WED-THU AND ESTABLISH NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. SFC LOW PRESSURE AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVES BUT THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUM IS LIKELY HOWEVER. VERY COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS/FOG TRENDS WITHIN
THE MILD AND MOIST REGIME THAT LASTS RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PLENTY OF
WIND TAKES SHAPE UPSTAIRS WHICH RESULTS IN SOME LLWS CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. ATTM BELIEVE THIS WILL KEEP THE FOG FROM GETTING
PERSISTENTLY DENSE. BUT WILL HAVE SOME DENSE FOG POCKETS ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. LIFR CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS RAIN BECOMES WIDESPREAD. THIS MAY HELP
TO FURTHER MIX VSBYS A BIT BUT STILL EXPECT IFR VSBYS WITH A FEW
LIFR VSBYS IN ANY DENSE FOG POCKETS.

&&

.MARINE...STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER WAVES OFFSHORE
FROM SHEBOYGAN TOWARDS OPEN WATERS...SO WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT GO
TIL THE 00Z END TIME THERE. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. APPEARS BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ATTM
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO SRN IL BY 00Z. A SSE WIND DEVELOPS BUT
EXPECT WAVES/WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE ONCE THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. RATHER GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOP AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT SOME GALE CONDITIONS IN THIS REGIME. SO HAVE HOISTED A GALE
WATCH FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THOUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
WAVES TOWARDS OPEN WATERS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING


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