Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 190843
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
343 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPWARD MOTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES TO AROUND 70 PERCENT
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  THE 850/700 MB SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
LIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT INCREASES TO THE NORTH.

850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS RATHER HIGH...SO EXPECT MORE CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A STRONG CAP AROUND 700
MB...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH A WEAK SOUTH
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE
JUST A FEW DEGREES.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE...WITH LAKE BREEZE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THE NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE ISOTHERMS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A WEAK
LAKE BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 80S AND MID/UPPER 80S ON
MONDAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER A RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QPF OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI.
THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP FORCING AND OVERALL DRY
PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
THIS PERIOD. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTHERN WI WILL BE CAPPED.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TUESDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 70 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH WI ON TUESDAY. THE ECWMF KEEPS
SOUTHERN WI CAPPED THROUGH TUE MIDDAY AND THE GFS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WI IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE GFS IS SHOWING HIGH CAPE BUT ONLY MODERATE SHEAR FOR SOUTHERN WI
WITH THE FRONT. CWASP /LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER INDEX/ VALUES
ARE AROUND 45-50 PERCENT FOR BOTH THE ECWMF AND GFS. THERE IS A
WEAKLY COUPLED UPPER JET FEATURE AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER NOT LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
STATES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS MEANS NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW OVER WI... NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES... AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... DEPENDING ON WHEN THE SHORTWAVES
ROLL THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SOME PATCHY IFR VSBYS MAINLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A RATHER STRONG CAP AROUND 10
THSD FT WILL LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

&&

.MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER LAND WILL
ADVECT OVER THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC


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