Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 170219 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
819 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW HAS PUSHED EAST AND SMALL ZONE OF CLEARING COMING IN
WITH LIGHTER WINDS. WITH SNOW COVER THIS IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC
FOR TEMPERATURES AS SITES IN EASTERN IOWA HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. FOR MOST AREAS ENOUGH WIND AND ONLY BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN LATER TONIGHT. SO CLOSE CALL AND
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY REST OF EVENING TO SEE IF MIN TEMPS
NEED TO BE BUMPED DOWN A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

WELL DEFINED HOLE IN THE CLOUDS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. SHOULD RESULT A
PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR REST OF THE EVENING AND PERHAPS MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILING TO RETURN AGAIN WITH
BRISK WESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

00Z NAM SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRISK WEST WINDS
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE WINDS DURING THE
MORNING. GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL CLOSER TO NOON
AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE DELAYED A BIT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGER THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. STILL NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SLOWLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
FLURRIES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AGAIN MONDAY ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS...WITH ONLY A DUSTING OR SO
EXPECTED.

COLD AIR ALOFT WILL POUR IN TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE
FALLING TO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. WITH 925 MB TEMPS DOWN TO
AROUND -14C TOMORROW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE INTO
THE UPPER TEENS MOST PLACES...MAYBE LOW 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 0 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES IN BY TUESDAY. BUT COLD
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES.  ANY LINGERING FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. VERY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. IF SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE MORE THAN
EXPECTED...TEMPS COULD GO LOWER.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL DIG ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A DECENT REFLECTION AT THE
SURFACE AS A RATHER SHARP SFC TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY
SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF IS
QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND WILL HELP TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON
THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DROP TO A FEW MB BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW ON POPS WITH THIS FEATURE AND WE HAVE BEEN
GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WILL CONTINUE.
STILL IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT MAY GET BUMPED A BIT HIGHER
OVER TIME. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LOW AS OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. TEMPS
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RECOVERY STARTING BY
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST BY SATURDAY ALLOWING A
MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PUSH IN. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM TO MOVE IN HERE LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMP PROFILES LOOKING WARMER...SUGGESTING A
MIXY PRECIP POTENTIAL SO STAY TUNED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGER THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. STILL NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
MVFR CIGS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SLOWLY CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
FLURRIES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AGAIN MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS...WITH ONLY A DUSTING OR SO
EXPECTED.

MARINE...

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVE FROM MID-MORNING MONDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE
NORTH...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY. THE OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE
WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES ON THE LOWER END...WITH ANY HIGHER WAVES
TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CRAVEN
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS



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