Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240931
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
431 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SURGE OF 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF
HIGH BASED LGT SHOWERS OVER NE IA AND SW WI. BELIEVE THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD. WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW
HOWEVER GIVEN THE COOL AND FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE OTHER
CHALLENGE IS THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN WI AS THE
STRONG SFC LOW OVER SD WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO SRN MN BY 12Z MON. THE
ONSHORE FLOW MAKES THE TEMP FCST IN ERN WI DIFFICULT. GIVEN THE COOL
TEMPS AND ELY FLOW THIS MORNING...DID COOL TEMPS IN THE EAST TODAY
FROM THE PRIOR FCST BUT STILL 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

THE WARM FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TO C WI TNT WITH MILD AND RELATIVELY
HUMID CONDITIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF TSTORMS
ARE FORECAST BUT MESO MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS TO
MOVE INTO SW WI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
MAIN VORT MAX THAT IS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE
C PLAINS INTO SRN MN...VERSUS FARTHER TO THE EAST.


.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK
WAVES PUSHES THROUGH...WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP THEN POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING/INSTABILITY AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT. SEEING DECENT SHEAR IN MODELS...WITH 0-6 KM
VALUES AROUND 35-45 KT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE OTHER ISSUE MONDAY WILL BE TEMPS. OVERALL...LATEST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...RESULTING IN A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF WARMER TEMPS. STILL A TRICKY SITUATION THOUGH...AS
A FARTHER SOUTH COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE ARE PROBLEMATIC AS WELL WITH WINDS
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY ALONG SHORE. A FARTHER NORTH FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A WESTERLY COMPONENT AND MILDER TEMPS...WHILE A FARTHER
SOUTH FRONT WILL BRING IN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AND KEEP THINGS
MUCH COOLER. GENERALLY WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND RESULTANT TEMPS.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOOKS LIKE A COOLER PATTERN MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. WITH ONSHORE WINDS FORECAST EVERY DAY...IT
WILL BE PARTICULARLY COOL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS
FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. LOOKS LIKE A
SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TNT BUT
BROKEN CLOUD COVER AROUND 5-7 KFT WILL OCCUR AT TIMES ALONG WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS OF TSTORM LATE TNT.

&&

.MARINE...SELY WINDS AND 1-3 FOOT WAVES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL MON
NT WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH. BRISK NLY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES
WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO TUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



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