Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240853 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
353 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

FEED OF DRY AIR AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ALL BUT THIN HIGH
CIRRUS AT BAY TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS THICKENING
AND LOWERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
COOL EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE
LAKE SHORE COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN CWA RESPECTIVELY...WITH ENOUGH SUN
TO REACH THE LOWER 40S.

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR
TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE MIX OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED THERE.

RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z...WITH THE RAIN BECOMING MODERATE THIS EVENING.  MODELS BRINGING
COOLER 925 MB TEMPS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CWA... BEING OVERRUN BY THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SO THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET.

SURFACE TEMPS COOL IN THE NORTH TO ADD PROSPECT OF FREEZING
RAIN...THEN ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS TO BRING SNOW INTO THE MIX...WITH 1
TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPS
LOOK TO STAY WARM ENOUGH OVER THE REST OF THE CWA TO PREVENT THE
RAIN FROM FREEZING...THOUGH THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SLEET...BUT
MODELS VARY ABOUT LOCATION OF SURFACE 0C LINE...WHICH COULD BRING
THE MIXY PCPN FARTHER SOUTH IF COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS PREVAIL.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS TAKE SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LAKE HURON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
SECONDARY LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS
WELL...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH WEAKER VORTICITY MAXIMA CLIPPING THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE 850 MB TO 700 MB
LAYER OR HIGHER UP.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT ON THE GFS AND NAM WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE NAM SHOWING MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...KEPT LOWER END POPS ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED OR REMOVED IN LATER
FORECASTS. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN KICKS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A COLDER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.

KEPT POPS GOING FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SEVERAL 500
MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
LOW LEVELS GETTING STEEP...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF THESE CONDITIONS
PERSIST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER...WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BRING QPF ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
SURFACE AND 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM STRENGTH OVER THE AREA. THE
ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH PLACEMENT AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER. KEPT
POPS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
CLIMB TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS GETTING INTO THE
50S.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SHORTLY...

.MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FOR GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION...EASING FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS NE IL AND LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND INCREASING AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL KEEP WINDS AT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     WIZ046-047-051-052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD


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