Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 262036
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/SHORTWAVE TROF
THE BROUGHT ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MOVES OUT THIS EVENING. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST RAIN
ACTIVITY TO END AROUND SUNSET EVERYWHERE BUT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT
STILL HAVE SOME CVA AND MOISTURE LINGERING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...OPTING TO GO DRY
AFTER SUNSET FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH
NEAR 80 AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THE HIGHS FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

MODELS HAVE GOTTEN CLOSER WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW
THROUGH THE REGION...HOLDING OFF PCPN TO THE WEST OF FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT WILL HELP HOLD LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SPREAD INTO THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT FAR EAST SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH
18Z...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES REQUIRES PUTTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE.

HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. RIGHT NOW SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS BEST WHERE CWASP NUMBERS ARE HIGHEST TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA ALONG TRACK OF SHORT WAVE IN REGION OF HIGHEST SURFACE-
BASED CAPE...BETTER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AS WELL AS HIGHER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STRONGER
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS
TO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SHORT WAVE LOOK TO EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY
12Z MONDAY. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES TO LOCATION/DEPTH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AS IT LIFTS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THERE IS ENOUGH FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST OF THE LOW TO FIRE UP SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS OVER SRN WI...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS AS DAYTIME HEATING
PRODUCES SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-700 J/KG RANGE.

PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING ON ECMWF AND
GFS...THOUGH GFS HANGS ONTO PCPN WITH LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH.
CANADIAN GEMNH HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN OVERNIGHT AS IT BRINGS A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE STATE.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

DIFFERENCES WITH VARIOUS FEATURES IN ACTIVE NW FLOW REGIME SHOW UP
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.  CANADIAN CLEARS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT BY TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT/SECONDARY TROUGH DOWN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS DRIER DURING MOST OF THE DAY BUT
BRINGS WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO THE DOORSTEP OF SW WI LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN
DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WILL KEEP SRN WI DRY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. PCPN MOVES IN WITH THIS NEXT
SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS
CLEARS PCPN OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT
IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
WITH SHORT WAVE AS IT PHASES WITH EASTERN CANADIAN LOW...EVOLVING
INTO A DEEP TROUGH THAT LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THAT
KEEPS PCPN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL
BE SOME REMNANT MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT IN THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST MESO MODELS KEEP THE AREA LARGELY DRY.
ACCORDINGLY...LEFT TAF SITES DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OFF OF KENOSHA
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP ON SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL BE 2-4 FT AND WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO 20 KTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM



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