000
FXUS63 KMKX 141955
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. NOT CONFIDENT IN EVEN THIS SMALL CHANCE THOUGH...AS
THERE IS NOT MUCH LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND MOISTURE IS VERY LACKING.
STILL...A FEW MODELS TRYING TO SPIT OUT SOME SHOWERS...THOUGH
PROBABLY ONLY DUE TO INITIALIZING WITH TOO HIGH DEWPOINTS.
OTHERWISE...BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SKIES TURNING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AND AIRMASS WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN
TODAY...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS APPROACH 80 MOST PLACES. NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM MAKING IT
INLAND...SO WARMER TEMPS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE LAKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN WI WED NT AND THU WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 12C YIELDS
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 80F AWAY FROM LAKE MI FOR THU.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN TRACK
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NRN MO THU NT AND FRI. 850-700 MB WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO SRN WI MAINLY ON FRI WITH PWS
INCREASING OVER ONE INCH. VERY MINOR ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE
SOUNDINGS AND THE SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOW LEVELS. KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT
HIGHER SINCE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION IS WEAK. A LITTLE MORE LIFT
HOWEVER COULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS GIVEN THE HIGH RH
THROUGH THE SOUNDINGS. WENT WITH MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS THAN THU
GIVEN CLOUDS...RAIN POTENTIAL...AND ONSHORE WINDS.


.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND SFC LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL PCPN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION. BEFOREHAND...THE WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SCT TSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARM...HUMID...
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS IS QUITE LOW FOR THIS EVENING...AS
THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL THUS MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT...BUT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IS FAIRLY SMALL. ADDITIONALLY...DECREASING MIXING OVER
LAND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATER DUE TO THE COOLER WATER TEMPS WILL MAKE GUSTY WINDS
DIFFICULT. WILL THUS NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING