Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 190929 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
429 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SE OUT OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF
CANADA TODAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT....PUSHING
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SW WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MANITOBA...THAT REACHES
WESTERN ONTARIO BY 00Z AND SAULT STE MARIE BY 12Z MONDAY.

925 MB TEMPS JUMP 4C TO 5C BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. WARMEST 925 MB
READINGS IN THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
CROSSES THE REGION...THEN TEMPS COOL 2-3C BY 12Z MONDAY WITH WEAK
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. CLOUDS AND THE LATE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD
LOWS IN THE 40S.

SOME ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA ON 295K SURFACE DEVELOPING IN THE
EAST WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN 100 MB OR HIGHER WITH BEST
LOWER-LAYER WARM-AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STAYING
NORTH.

A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TONIGHT WITH STRONGER HIGHER LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION AHEAD OF MAIN VORT MAX. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH SMALL
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING SOME VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
THIS AND 850 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE IS TOWARD THE SHEBOYGAN
AREA...MORE SO ON NAM THAN GFS SOUNDINGS. ECMWF IS ONLY SYNOPTIC
MODEL PRODUCING ANY QPF MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE LOW POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COULD
SEE REMOVING POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF 850 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE
DECREASES. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WINDS DURING
THIS TIME MAY BRING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

MODELS KEEPING MAIN AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...IN A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. KEPT FORECAST DRY OVER THE AREA...BUT KEPT CLOUDS
LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MORE QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
DELTA T VALUES LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN THE FAR
EAST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEAKENING...WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH THIS FEATURE IS MODEST AT BEST IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. THEY DO SHOW THE QPF FALLING
APART THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE POPS THURSDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. MAY HAVE TO REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THIS
TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY BUT REMAIN AT
VFR LEVELS. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA TO NEAR SAULT STE MARIE BY 12Z MONDAY. GUSTY SW WINDS TODAY WILL
TURN WEST AND EASE LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT CLEARS KENW BY 12Z MONDAY. A BAND OF
LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN WI...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
SMALL TO MENTION FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES.

MARINE...

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO NEAR SAULT STE MARIE BY 12Z MONDAY.
THE WINDS WILL LOWER AFTER 06Z IN THE SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WAVES WILL BUILD TO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER
WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATER WITH THE OFFSHORE FETCH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD



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