Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 271958
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
258 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHOULD BE QUIET TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD BRINGING A WEAKENING MCS INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A
SHORTWAVE MOST NOTABLE AT 500 MB PUSHES THROUGH. MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SETUP...THOUGH LARGER SCALE MODELS
ARE MAINLY DRY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FELT EARLY ROUND WAS WORTH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING FROM MADISON WESTWARD. THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS LOOK MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION.

CONCERNED THAT EARLY ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS LOWER THAN A LOT OF MODELS ARE INDICATING. STUCK NEAR
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR HIGHS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AFTERNOON CLOUD
COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE NT INTO WED AM. ONLY
WEAK PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS BUT PWS RISING TO 2 INCHES AND MODELS
PRODUCING AT LEAST MODEST QPF. LIKE THE WRF NMM AND ARW RUNS THAT
BRINGS DECAYING SHOWERS/TSTORMS INTO THE AREA ON TUE BUT
REDEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK
AREA...WHICH IS ALONG THE MS RIVER. A POSSIBLE MCS WOULD FORM AND TRACK
SEWD AND AFFECT THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. THUS WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS IN THE SW CWA TO LIKELY ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO.

WLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM LATER WED THROUGH
FRI DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL USA AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER CANADA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A CANADIAN
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH THETAE AIR WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON SAT FOLLOWED BY
THE FRONT SAT NT AND SUN. THUS BEST CHANCES OF TSTORMS ARE SAT NT
AND SUN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR MON ALTHOUGH WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION COULD RETURN LATE IN THE DAY THUS SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDER. WARM SUMMER TEMPS CONTINUING.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
BRINGING A DYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE WEST LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP FROM MADISON WESTWARD. IT SHOULD TURN QUIET AGAIN
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE STORMS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

COULD SEE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING



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