Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 160842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
342 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016


Discussion coming soon...

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are showing a weak surface low moving northeast into
southeast Minnesota or north central Iowa on Monday. There is a
good push of warm air advection into the area Monday on increasing
south winds. In addition, the low level jet nose focuses in
northern portions of the area and to the north of there.

The surface low then deepens as it continues to shift northeast
into the upper peninsula of Michigan and beyond Monday night. A
strong cold front shifts east through the region Monday night. The
east northeastward advancing 500 mb vorticity maximum, and
associated upward vertical motion, stays just north of the area
Monday night.

The main issue Monday into Monday night will be the strong cap
that develops over the area, in response to the strong push of
warm air advection into the area. NAM/GFS soundings both show this
on Monday, weakening somewhat Monday night but remains there. This
may limit or keep any showers and storms north of the forecast
area Monday into Monday night. For now, will leave in chance PoPs
in the northern portions of the area Monday afternoon and evening,
lower to the south.

Clouds trapped under cap may linger Monday, which may limit highs
somewhat. However, expected 925 mb temperatures suggest highs into
the mid to upper 70s across the area. If the sun can come out
Monday in the south, highs reaching 80 or a bit higher are
possible. Record highs Monday, and high minimums, may be reached
at Milwaukee and Madison, if the sun can come out. Despite cold
air advection Tuesday, highs should remain above normal. Quiet
weather is expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, with weak high

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

ECMWF and GFS differ with the placement of the system for
Wednesday into Thursday. The ECMWF is further to the northwest
with the surface low track, and has a more amplified 500 mb
shortwave trough, than the GFS. The ECMWF brings QPF into the
southeast half of the area during most of this period, being on
the backside of the system as it shifts northeast into Ohio.

The GFS keeps the area dry, with the low remaining well to the
south. Given the differences with the models, kept consensus blend
of PoPs and temperatures for Wednesday into Thursday.

ECMWF/GFS keep the region in northwest flow at 500 mb for Friday
into Saturday. There is 500 mb vorticity maxima that shift through
the area, with the ECMWF bringing some warm air advection for
Friday night and light QPF. The GFS is rather dry. Kept the
consensus PoPs and temperatures for this period for now.



Discussion coming soon...



Discussion coming soon...


.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Wood is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.