Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 130929
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW A
MILDER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. THE
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW THROUGH TODAY...BUT DEEPEN
WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS COULD BE
DENSE FOR A TIME. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

TEMPS WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO THE 40S TODAY WITH 925MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 5-7C...AND THIS IS IN THE FACE OF A DECENT LOW
LEVEL INVERSION. WITHOUT THAT INVERSION...WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
SOME VERY MILD TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHIFTING 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW SHIFTING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW
OPENS AND THEN SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 40S. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...GRADUALLY DEEPENING DURING THIS PERIOD.

THUS...CONTINUED TO MENTION DRIZZLE WITH AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY.
COULD SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP AT TIMES. CONTINUED WITH LOWER END
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FOG...AS 500 MB LOW SHIFTS TOWARD THE
REGION. MILD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

CONTINUED WITH HIGHER END POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AS 500 MB
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. COLDER AIR TRYING TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN DIVERGE LATER IN THE WEEK. THEY TAKE THE SURFACE
LOW EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA.

MODELS DO HANDLE THE 500 MB LOW DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING IT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT IN THE NORTH DAKOTA AREA. FOR NOW...USED CONSENSUS POPS
FOR TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

GFS THEN BRINGS LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. AN AREA
OF QPF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THESE
FEATURES.

THE ECMWF KEEPS A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN
THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODELS...WENT WITH CONSENSUS POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

OVERALL LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY
LOW VISIBILITIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND WILL ALLOW A MILDER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN 10-15Z...BUT IT WILL FILL BACK IN QUICKLY.
DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD



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