Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 291941
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
241 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STARTING CLEAR UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST
AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE WAVE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
WHILE A SECONDARY...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE FIRST FRONT MAY
HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW.

THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY SHARP AND
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF AND EMBEDDED COMPACT SHORT WAVE. THE
FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST LIGHT SNOW INLAND...BUT
GIVEN THE WARM LAKE TEMPS...THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL LIQUID
CLOSE TO THE SHORE AND OVER THE WATER. THE SHORT WAVE...COLD FRONT
AND DEEPER FORCING PUSHES SOUTH VERY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING.
BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG AND DELTA T/S INCREASE TO
ABOUT 20C DURING THE MORNING. SO...WE/LL TRANSITION TO A PURE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL AFTER SUNRISE AND THIS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS
VERY CLOSE TO SHORE. AGAIN...THE WARM LAKE TEMPS WILL KEEP THIS
MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND...TO ALL RAIN ONCE OVER THE
WATER. AT THIS POINT WE/RE NOT LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND
IF ANY DO OCCUR...IT WOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY AREAS.

THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST. RAPID SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS DURING THIS TIME WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EAST...AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM AND
GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS WITH RESPECT
TO WIND INTENSITY. WE SHOULD SEE NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
BY FRIDAY EVENING.

WE WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW IT.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THAT COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOK FOR SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S AND WITH WINDS STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...WE/LL
SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LEADING WARM
ADVECTION AND EVENTUAL TROF PASSAGE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY NIGHT WITH TROF PASSAGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ARRIVE BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

FINALLY SEEING CLOUDS CLEAR UP A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA.
STILL EXPECTING SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CIGS TOMORROW...THOUGH COULD GET NEAR MVFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL GALE WATCH AS IS FOR FRIDAY. MODELS ALL BACKED OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SOME...SO WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO
BEFORE POSSIBLY ISSUING THE WARNING. THAT BEING SAID...UNLESS MODELS
BACK WAY OFF WINDS...THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY SOLID GALE WARNING
EVENT. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES ALSO.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS



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