000
FXUS63 KGRR 180729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY BRINGING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. IT WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR
THE 70 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OF
ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL NOT COME UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS OVER OUR SE FCST AREA BEFORE ENDING.
OTHERWISE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW LATER
TODAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

IT WILL BECOME MILD SUNDAY WITH SOME SUN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WARM
AIR ADVECTION HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL STAY NORTH TO
NW OF OUR FCST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR FCST AREA DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT IN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR
THIS EVENT AND THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID IN THE
FORECAST.

WEAK SFC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT
WASHES OUT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK SFC RIDGING. THE RIDGING
MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW ARRIVING AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL SFC LOW ARRIVES...WHICH APPEARS TO BE PAST THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE A GOOD SHARE OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A NARROW
BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z FROM NEAR AZO
ACROSS TO LAN. CEILING WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN. I WOULD EXPECT A AREA OF MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP NEAR
INTESTATE 94 AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ALL OF THIS SHOULD
MOVE OUT JUST AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

NUMEROUS AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE CANCELED TODAY BASED ON
UPDATED REPORTS FROM ROAD COMMISSIONS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS THAT
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING. FOR NEWAYGO...OSCEOLA...AND ISABELLA
COUNTIES THE AREA FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT IN ROAD CONDITIONS OCCURS DUE TO A RECESSION OF THE
FLOOD WATERS.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER CONTINUES WITH A
SLOW RECESSION FORECASTED. EVART WILL HOLD ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE CROTON WILL HOLD ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AS SUCH...SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PROPERTIES ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY. THE CROTON DAM
OPERATION CONTINUES TO REDUCE FLOWS DOWNSTREAM...LEADING TO A SLOW
AND STEADY DECLINE IN RIVER LEVELS FOR INTERESTS IN NEWAYGO AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS IN
SIGHT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO THE RIVER RECESSION WILL CONTINUE.

THE PERE MARQUETTE AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS CONTINUE TO HOLD BETWEEN
MINOR AND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITH BOTH RIVERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IMPACTS FROM FLOOD
WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING