000
FXUS63 KGRR 020822
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOWS IN SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COME ONSHORE.  BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS.  ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END THIS
EVENING.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATES FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW.

AFTER A QUIET...BUT COLD MONDAY...MORE SNOW RETURNS FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
THIS SYSTEM.  LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN...MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.  WITH LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED BY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

A FAIRLY COMPLEX LAKE EFFECT PATTERN WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY.
BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AROUND AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION.  WE MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AS WE CLEAR AND TEMPS PLUMMET.  AND FINALLY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN WITH MORE SNOW THAT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY THE LAKE.

THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.  OF MORE CONCERN WAS A
MESO LOW THAT WAS EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING OFF OF
THE SABLE POINTS AND DRIFTING SOUTH.  ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE WAS A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE.  THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PIVOT AROUND TO
THE WEST TOWARD MID DAY AND SHOULD BRING BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
ONSHORE.  THIS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 16Z.  JUST HOW FAR INLAND THE
MESO LOW AND IT/S SNOW MAKES IT IS THE COMPLEX QUESTION.  BASED ON
OMEGA FIELDS IT SEEMS LIKE IT AT LEAST MAKE IT EAST OF U.S. 131 AND
COULD EVEN CARRY TOWARD LAN BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD 22Z.  HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE A
PROGRESSIVE FEATURE THAT WILL ONLY PUT DOWN AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST
AREAS.

THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NNE BY TONIGHT...KEEPING ANY LAKE
EFFECT OFFSHORE...AND ALLOWING THE REGION TO CLEAR.  THIS WILL MAKE
FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE ZERO TO
-10F DEGREE RANGE.  WITH NORTH WINDS HOLDING AROUND 5 MPH WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY DROP TO ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.  AS FOR RECORD LOWS FOR MAR 3RD...THEY ARE -9 AT
GRR...-10 AT MKG...AND -19 AT LAN.  SOME OF THESE MAY BE APPROACHED.

AFTER A QUIET AND COLD MONDAY...MORE SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.  THIS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND HAVE ADDED POPS TO THE
NORTHERN CWA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO TUESDAY...SO ALSO INCREASED POPS
THEN.  FEEL THIS IS A 1 TO 3 INCH TYPE SYSTEM...HIGHEST TOTALS WEST
AND NORTH OF GRR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY COLD PERIOD FOR THE THE LONG
TERM.

ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH TUE NIGHT.  THIS COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW.  THE GFS DOES FEATURE MORE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS AND WOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERAL HR PERIOD OF SNOW ROUGHLY AROUND 12Z WED.  THE MAIN IMPACT
OF THIS WAVE WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR THAT MOVES IN BEHIND IT.  I
THINK WE SHOULD WATCH THE TEMPERATURES CLOSELY FOR WED AM.  NAM
SHOWS -10 DEG F SURFACE TEMPS FOR PLACES LIKE HARRISON AND MOP.
THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER WITH THE GFS KEEPING CLOUDS IN AND
HIGH RES EURO NOT NEARLY AS COLD.  WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT 925 MB...I SUSPECT THE
NAM MAY VERIFY. PLENTY OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SITTING UP IN ONTARIO
TO MOVE ON DOWN.  FOR THAT REASON I DID LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS THU INTO FRI.  ANY WARMUP WILL BE SLOW
AND WE MAY NOT EVEN REACH NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
DOES TURN SOUTHWEST ON FRI...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH THE ARCTIC AIR
BACK INTO CANADA...BUT THE FLOW IS WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE EITHER LATER FRI OR
SATURDAY.  MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT. THE GFS IS ABOUT 24 HRS FASTER THAN THE HIGH RES EURO.  THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS SEEN IN THE MID LEVELS WHERE THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASED RIDGING IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHICH RESULTS IN A
STRONGER AND SOONER PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY TAP GULF MOISTURE BEFORE IT
PUSHES THROUGH MI...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  I
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

VARIED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT 05Z...WITH VFR WEATHER IN
PLACE AT KMKG AND KGRR. IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN PLACE ALONG
I-94. THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT THE SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF AND EXIT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD NUDGE BACK IN OVER TIME TONIGHT THOUGH WITH MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OUT OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO MVFR VISIBILITIES
SHOWING UP AGAIN AS THESE BANDS TRAVERSE THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

NO CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH REGARDS TO
HYDROLOGY. WE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY THU
THAT RIVERS AND ICE ON THE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STABLE.

WE WILL BE MONITORING THE BRIEF WARM UP THAT IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO WARM INTO
THE 30S...WITH 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE TEMPS ALONG WITH
SOME SUNSHINE COULD THIN THE ICE OUT A LITTLE. THE WARM UP LOOKS
LIMITED ENOUGH IN DURATION AND STRENGTH THAT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT
THE RIVERS A LOT. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT THE RIVERS MUCH. WE THEN COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS RATHER STABLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...NJJ