Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 262319
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
720 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 553 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SOME LOW-TOPPED DISCRETE CELLS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH
OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA SHOW TRANSIENT ROTATION WHICH
WILL HELP THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. MAIN CONCERN IS
NORTH OF BIG RAPIDS AND MOUNT PLEASANT WHERE WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
BACKED. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE.

HAVE REMOVED COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF US-131 FROM THE WATCH.
A TRAILING BAND OF CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG US-131 IS NOT EXPECTED
TO POSE ANY SEVERE THREAT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AFTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...AFTER A
DRY THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND THE COMING WORK WEEK LOOK MOSTLY DRY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH RECENTLY ISSUED WITH INCREASING
DESTABILIZATION AND SHEAR AHEAD OF LIFTING UPPER WAVE. PLEASE
REFERENCE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER WI/MN ENTERING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY. PUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO
THIS BETTER MOISTURE. SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO HAS A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS MORE DISCRETE
CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED INCLUDES HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A FROST THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK RAIN EVENT...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD
CAUSE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS TO EXCEED AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAINS SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR...DRY AND COOL WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE COLDER LOCATIONS IN
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
LINGERING SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MAINLY
MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO PATCHY FOG. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WSW AND INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WEBCAMS
INDICATE FOG HAS ERODED AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE WITH RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE LOW AND STABLE. EXPECTING 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLOWLY
INCREASING RIVER LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING NO OR MINOR/NUISANCE
FLOODING BY WEEKS END.

A POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY (OVER AN INCH) MAY PUSH
SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS ABOVE BANKFULL BY NEXT WEEK... IF THESE
AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...TJT


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