Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 271633
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1233 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEFORE A COOL FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED...SO
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

VISIBILITIES REMAIN VARIABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SITES VARY FROM 10 MILES TO AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE. UNLIKE
LAST NIGHT...WE ARE NOT SEEING WIDESPREAD STATUS IN THE FOG IMAGERY.
GIVEN THE VARIABLE VISIBILITIES AND THE LACK OF STRATUS WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH
AND LIKE LAST NIGHT MAY NEED TO ISSUE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS HEADING INTO MONDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THOUGH. KEPT A 20PCT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE U.S. 10 CORRIDOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.

BOTTOM LINE IS QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY OTHER THAN THE NIGHTLY
OCCURRENCE OF THE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE U.P. MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN DRY WX BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE PCPN THAN THE GFS DUE TO THE DEPICTION OF A STRONGER
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO THE 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS PROGD LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONGLY DIGGING
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RESULTING IN
A DEEPENING SFC LOW BY FRIDAY. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MOVES A
CLOSED LOW NE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. QUITE A BIT OF
PCPN IS PROGD BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. INCREASING INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH SHEAR AROUND 55KTS COULD RESULT IN STRONG WINDS IN
TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING...BUT FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP
AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DELAY THE FOGS
ONSET AND OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR NOW I FEATURED IFR RETURNING TO
KJXN AND KLAN. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING. WIND VALUES
REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD. A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS...SO NO MARINE
CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES LESS THAN A
FOOT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

RIVERS REMAIN LOW AND WITHIN BANK. NO RAIN IS FORECAST INTO
MONDAY...SO NO HYDRO CONCERNS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE





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