Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 181527
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1027 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Made a few tweeks to forecast sky cover but little else as looking
at another hot humid day with heat indices peaking at 102F to
106F. Cant rule out an isolated shower but airmass capped so not
thinking any more than that today. Better chance tomorrow with
front approaching from N and possible MCS making a run at at least
northern zones. 18

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR...short lived periods of MVFR ceilings during the early
morning hours. Lighter early Monday winds so rural hubs may
experience MVFR visibility-restricting shallow fog development
for a few hours on either side of sunrise. Breezy afternoon south
winds with a FEW-SCT cumulus field/passing cirrus. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
There is not much change to the Southeast Texas forecast for
the remainder of the weekend. Today will be another very warm
and dry day across the area with highs in the low to mid 90s
inland and around 90 at the coast. Late morning through afternoon
heat index values should peak in a 102 to 106 range - still below
heat advisory levels. Low rain chances enter the forecast very
late tonight and on into the day tomorrow as a slow moving cold
front sags southward toward our northern counties. The forecast
remains challenging as the upcoming week progresses while we wait
to see what becomes of the northwest Caribbean Sea disturbance and
where it goes. Until we get a closed circulation for the models
to work with, think it is best to keep the current forecast as is
with low rain chances near the coast and offshore. Expect to see
changes to the forecast over the next couple of days as we see
what unfolds. Stay tuned!  42

MARINE...
A weakening regional pressure gradient will allow winds to subside
this morning with no flags anticipated through early Tuesday.
Responding seas will subside to average 2 foot heights by Monday
afternoon. The development of either a tropical wave or tropical
storm and its eventual early week movement will determine Tuesday
and Wednesday`s winds and seas. Forecast is for a Tropical
Disturbance or possible Tropical Cyclone to jog a bit north of the
Bay of Campeche and into the Gulf. This will back strengthened local
winds to the east and build seas up to 5 to 6 feet...with slight to
low end precipitation chances...through Wednesday. This forecast
then takes the system either west into Mexico or northeast towards
Florida. Either way...weakened winds will become onshore by Thursday
and remain this way into the weekend. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      96  76  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  77  95  75  95 /  10  10  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            89  81  90  80  90 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...18



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