Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 172041
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
341 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Temps have warmed into the low to mid 90s inland this afternoon,
and expect more of the same tomorrow, with a warm and humid
airmass and upper level ridging in place. We are seeing some high
clouds moving SW across SE areas which originated from convection
well off to our east.

A weak cool front is expected to move into southeast Texas on Monday
and will likely produce iso/sct convection across the area...
especially across NE areas. Although the front will dissipate
over the area, N/NE flow due to the synoptic pattern in place (low
pressure in the Gulf and high pressure centered off to our north)
will bring drier air into the region on Tuesday.

The forecast becomes more uncertain beyond Tuesday as it will
hinge on where a potential tropical cyclone develops in the gulf
and tracks. For example, a storm tracking to our south would
likely bring an increase in moisture and a chance of rain, whereas
a storm tracking well off to our east would leave us warm and
dry. For now, will have a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain for the
SE half of the area for Wed and beyond to account for the
possibility of some increase in moisture levels. 33

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure over N/W Texas combined with high pressure to the east
will help to maintain moderate/strong onshore winds across the bays
and coastal waters through tomorrow. Will keep Caution flags in for
all the marine areas overnight, although they could be extended for
the coastal waters through tomorrow afternoon/evening. The pressure
gradient is expected to weaken by Monday with the upper ridge build-
ing over the Rockies that will help to push a weak front into north
central Texas. The front is progged to stall in/around the northern
portions of SE TX before finally washing out.

Of concern for the upcoming week, models remain consistently varied
with their solutions with the area of disturbed weather in/near the
Yucatan. For now will keep with moderate/strong east winds and only
slightly elevated sea by mid week. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      76  96  76  94  75 /   0  10   0  20  10
Houston (IAH)              79  95  77  95  75 /   0  10   0  20  20
Galveston (GLS)            81  89  81  90  80 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Sunday morning for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...33



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