Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 140531
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1131 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.AVIATION...
High pressure over N Texas will bring dry conditions and light
winds to the region tonight. Could get a brief window of patchy
cirrus between 06-15z but VFR conditions will prevail. Winds
remain light tonight and will veer to the E and eventually SE by
late Sunday afternoon but wind speeds generally expected to remain
at or below 6 knots. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...

.Today through Tuesday Night...
Quiet and cool weather this weekend will gradually warm to the
upper 50s to mid 60s by Monday as high pressure slides east and
onshore flow returns. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to dip
below freezing across most of the inland areas, but a hard freeze
is not anticipated.

Rain chances increase Monday evening through Tuesday as a cold
front pushes through the area. The predominant precipitation type
is expected to be rain, however there is still a slight chance of
some wintry precipitation mixing in across the northern parts of
the area early Tuesday morning. At this point it`s still a little
to early to nail down precipitation type, and for now all types
of frozen precipitation (snow, sleet, and freezing rain) are on
the table. It really comes down to how fast the cold air sweeps in
behind the front vs how quickly the post-frontal precip ends. The
ECMWF is faster with the front bringing it through more overnight
Monday night, vs the GFS/NAM solutions of a Tuesday morning
frontal passage. Previous ECMWF run showed faster drying behind
the front in addition to being quicker than the others, however,
the latest run is showing some lingering precipitation well after
the freezing line passes. Although confidence is slowly increasing
that frozen precipitation is possible, overall chances are still
fairly low. Right now, the best chance for frozen precipitation is
along and north of a Columbus-Conroe-Livingston line. If frozen
precip falls, light accumulations (<0.1 inch) will be possible.
With temperatures falling throughout the day Tuesday and into
Tuesday night, any wet surfaces remaining will likely freeze with
low temperatures in the low 20s to low 30s Tuesday night. A Hard
Freeze Warning may be required for portions of the area. 11

.Wednesday through Saturday...
High pressure builds in Wednesday behind the cold front and will
quickly progress eastward across the Central Plains. Onshore flow
and moisture will return Thursday as the surface high moves over
the Tennessee Valley. An upper-level shortwave trough moves
through the area Thursday night with strong warm air advection and
lift, so precipitation is expected Thursday night through Friday.
The biggest issue is if the precipitation begins early enough on
Thursday to catch the below freezing temperatures, freezing rain
is possible along the northernmost counties. Confidence is
currently low enough that no fzra was included in the grids, but
it is something we will watch out for moving forward. Behind the
shortwave, a gradual warming trend will continue through the
weekend before the next cold front passes on Sunday. 22

MARINE...
Will be keeping the Low Water Advisory up through the evening
hours given the combination of moderate NE flow and low
astronomical tide times helping to keep MLLW levels at or around
-1.00 feet. Elevated winds and seas have also persisted over the
offshore waters and will also maintain the SCEC for these
locations into this evening.

As high pressure continues to move off to the east...we will be
seeing a slow veering of winds to the east overnight through
tomorrow. Generally light SE winds are expected across the coastal
waters Sun night and should persist through Mon. Models remain on
track with a strong cold front moving into the Gulf Tues
afternoon. Gusty north/ northeasterly winds in the wake of the
boundary will likely require Small Craft Advisories Tues night
into Weds morning. The associated arctic high building down from
the Plains is forecast to linger in/ around the Middle MS Valley
region through the rest of the week and its proximity should keep
moderate/strong east winds in place. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      30  53  35  61  33 /   0   0   0  10  50
Houston (IAH)              32  53  37  62  44 /   0   0   0  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            41  48  46  57  50 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...43



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