Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 311200
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
700 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE 1012MB SURFACE LOW THAT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS HAS FINALLY DEPARTING INTO INDIANA AT 08Z/3AM...JUST
ACROSS THE BORDER FROM LAWRENCEVILLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART AWAY TO THE EAST...SUBSIDENT MOTIONS WILL INCREASE AND
WORK TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EAST OF I-57 AND NORTH OF I-70. WE EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE TROWAL REGION NW OF THE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR EVEN THE EASTERN AREAS
AFTER NOON.

CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TODAY...AS INDICATED BY THE RAP
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR FORECAST MOISTURE. NAM AND GFS ALSO SUPPORT A
CLOUDIER SOLUTION TODAY AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP A CLOUDY SKY IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE IL RIVER TOWARDS GALESBURG...WHICH
MAY HELP THEIR HIGH TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EASTERN AREAS.
WE WENT CLOSER TO MAVMOS IN THAT AREA...WHILE TRIMMING A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW GUID ELSEWHERE UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. A BRISK
NORTH WIND WILL ADD A SPRING CHILL TO THE AIR AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH ILLINOIS ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AND RETURN TO
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF TO OUR WEST...FROM AN UPPER
WAVE EMERGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME PROGRESS SHOULD BE MADE BY BY
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE OF A DIFFUSE AREA OF REMNANTS COVERING MUCH OF ILLINOIS
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE MCS TRACK ALONG A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO
INDIANAPOLIS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF I-70 FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
WHILE POP`S ARE INCLUDED AREA-WIDE FOR SATURDAY...THIS IS LESS
CERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT ENDS
UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

IFR CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FARTHER EAST OF ILLINOIS. PIA
AND SPI SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CLOUD
HEIGHTS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE BOARD, WITH PIA POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMBING TO VFR FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR CIGS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT, BUT WE DID NOT INCLUDE THAT WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT OCCURRING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20-24KT
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 20Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ILLINOIS WEAKENS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON



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