Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 141552
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1052 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Updated the forecast to adjust sky cover as more sunshine
appearing late this morning se of I-55 than earlier expected. Also
some slight adjustments to pops today and continued likely chances
of showers and thunderstorms over Knox, Stark and Marshall
counties into this afternoon, though heaviest rains today will
stay north of CWA where flash flood watches continue through 4 am
Sunday morning. More clouds and convection over northern CWA to
keep highs in the upper 70s from Peoria north. Meanwhile partly
to mostly sunny skies over southeast IL to warm temperatures
(currently in the lower 70s), into the mid 80s by mid afternoon.
A conference call was conducted at 10 am today with emergency
managers for slight risk nw of I-70 and enhanced risk of severe
storms over the IL river valley late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Moisture channel imagery and upper air analysis depicts main short
wave over southern ID which will be track east next 24 hours and
triggering surface low development on surface frontal boundary.
This boundary extending from east central KS over northern MO into
northeast IL. As the upper short wave moves east, low center
expected to deepen and move northeast along frontal zone. This
will keep central IL CWa in warm sector today, with southern low
level flow of moist air into region. Only scattered storms
possible over northwest 1/3 of region today, as focus of
convergence on front, northwest of region today.

Low center to strengthen and move into eastern IA by this evening,
with main instability and shear in warm sector, just to the north
of CWA. Best pcpn and chance of severe in early evening in good
shear and instability just to northwest of area. Then as the low
continues by late evening, moving into southern WI, it will pull
cold front east over southeast IA and MO. Best chance of severe
will therefore be along and ahead of the front, in the late
afternoon and evening, mainly west of IL River, and then by late
evening in the area west of I-55. Front will track east overnight,
but low level instability should no longer be surface based, and
so isolated wind and possible hail may still linger will storms
ahead of front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Front will finally clear region in morning hours with lingering
pcpn ending. Gusty winds through the day. Cold air flows in Sunday
night. High pressure will be in control of weather pattern through
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

VFR conditions expected today in warm sector with southernly winds
and chance of scattered storms through day. Approach of front
overnight brings better chance of storms, and then with front,
MVFR cigs possible in area of front and after passage.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Goetsch



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