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000
FXUS63 KILX 131514
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1014 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1013 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WAS PUSHING SOUTH OF I-72 AT 15Z. HAVE HAD A
FEW REPORTS OF BRIEF MIST OUT OF THIS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS
25 MPH WAS ADVECTING IN A LOWER MID 50S DEWPOINT AIRMASS FROM
NORTHERN IL. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE LOWER CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA MIDDAY AND SOME
SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 80
ALONG WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE FROM
THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY YESTERDAY.

25
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

TIMING OF THE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD. BACKEDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED
FROM JUST SOUTH OF MOLINE TO GARY INDIANA...TRACKING SOUTH AT ABT
15 KTS. BASED ON THAT SPEED IT APPEARS VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
INTO PIA AND BMI BTWN 13-15Z...AND THEN POINTS SOUTH BTWN 15Z-17Z
THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
CU FORMING FROM LATE MORNING ON WITH BASES FROM 4000-5000 FEET
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THRU EARLY AFTN BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 00Z.

SMITH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SEVERE MCS/S STAYED NORTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL IL DURING THE NIGHT
DUE TO CAP HOLDING OVER THE REGION. AREAS FROM I-74 NE HAD
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IN ILX CWA.
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTOMS WAS NE OF PIA/BMI AND
AROUND INDY WHILE FEW SHOWERS BETWEEN CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE AND
MOVING QUICKLY ESE AND SHOULD BE EAST OF IL BY 12Z/7 AM.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OF 1000 MB OVER SW LAKE ERIE HAD COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW INTO SE IL/MO APPROACHING I-70 IN SE IL. MUGGY
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S (TEMPS IN UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S) OVER EASTERN IL. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S WEST OF I-57 WITH WNW BREEZES STARTING TO BRING IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR.

1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND RIDGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TO NOSE INTO IL TONIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO 995 MB BY SUNSET OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WHERE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS TODAY. BUT QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL/SE IL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND
CONTINUE FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
BREEZY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL IL TODAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE MS VALLEY BY SAT WITH
INCREASE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY THOUGH NOT AS HOT AS YESTERDAY WHEN
HIGHS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH SPRINGFIELD TIEING A RECORD
HIGH OF 95F. HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS ELEVATING INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SHORT WAVES AND MCS/S TO TRACK SE
FROM IA INTO CENTRAL IL STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT...ACROSS
CENTRAL IL SAT NIGHT AND OVER SE IL TOO ON SUNDAY. SPC HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTHERN AREAS SAT AND SAT EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. CAP MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
LIMIT SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS SAT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WITH
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER IL...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS BEST CHANCES
OF CONVECTION SE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON. UPPER LEVEL TROF NEAR IL
MON TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.
THEN DRY WX RETURNS DURING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM TUE-THU AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO IL BY WED MORNING AND STAYS NEAR
THE AREA INTO THU.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$