Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 020826
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
326 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT WE
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECT ALL AREAS EXCPT PIA AND BMI
OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DRAW DOWN SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THE LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS THAT
LOOK TO BE AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS EXCPT FOR PIA TO
THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS
BY MID AFTERNOON AND ON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH


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