Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 171744
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

15z/10am surface analysis shows cold front advancing east of the
I-57 corridor. Behind the front, gusty W/NW winds are developing,
which will eventually bring cooler air into the region later today
into tonight. Skies are currently partly sunny across much of the
KILX CWA, with sunny skies noted along/south of I-70. Further
upstream, a large area of low clouds is dropping southward across
Iowa and will arrive across north-central Illinois over the next
couple of hours. Based on satellite timing tools and 12z NAM
forecast soundings, skies will become cloudy along/north of I-72
by early to mid-afternoon. Further south, sunshine will prevail
until later in the day when SCT-BKN clouds arrive from the north.
High temperatures will range from the upper 50s far northwest
around Galesburg where clouds will increase soonest, to around 70
south of I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Upper level low/trof continues to evolve over NE United States/SE
Canada. This evolution will result in two cold frontal passages
today across the forecast area. The first front is currently
crossing the forecast area, and is accompanied by little more than a
wind shift. The second front, driven by a vigorous wave currently
moving through the upper Midwest, will move through the area this
afternoon. While this front is not expected to produce any rainfall
locally, it will be accompanied by fairly solid cloud cover, gusty
northwest winds, and cooler temperatures. Lowered high temperatures
a bit from previous forecast, especially across the north, to
account for cloud cover and cold advection pushing in for the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Prev big low that has kept the Midwest in plenty of clouds and light
rain for much of the week is moving out to the NE. New shortwave
bringing a weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds with
some cooler air diving into the Midwest. Ridge building in for the
weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a
chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in
response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late
Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with
this feature actually pushing any QPF.  The GFS and NAM have the
wave, but remains dry this far south.  Weak southerly flow and cloud
cover will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better
precip chances will be further to the east.  That being said, silent
slight chances on Mon remain the only precip in the forecast.  Sfc
ridging continuing through the remainder of the week and
temperatures remain just below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR clouds continue to spread/develop into central Illinois from
the northwest early this afternoon. Most obs sites are indicating
SCT-BKN cloud cover at around 3500ft and think this trend will
continue due to cyclonic flow around upper low dropping into the
Great Lakes. Forecast soundings suggest clouds will hold firm
through the entire 18z TAF period, and upstream satellite imagery
certainly supports this. Will therefore maintain low VFR cloud
cover this afternoon through Saturday morning. W/NW winds will
gust to around 25kt this afternoon, then will veer to the N/NW and
decrease to less than 10kt tonight into Saturday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes






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