Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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103
FXUS63 KILX 142013
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
313 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

An outflow boundary from convection over northern IL has slipped
toward toward a Bloomington to Rushville line at mid afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms were north of a Quincy to Bloomington
line and tracking ene. Partly to mostly sunny skies over central
and southern CWA has warmed temperatures into the mid 80s with
Lincoln setting a record high of 86F and Springfield up to 87F,
just a degree shy of the record high. Moist dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s across CWA. Precipitable water values ranged from
1.5-1.9 inches, highest over northern CWA, which is at the 99
percentile for mid October. This is supporting the heavy rains
of 1-3 inches over northern IL. SPC day1 outlook has slight risk
of severe storms along and north of I-72 late this afternoon and
into this evening, while enhanced risk of severe over the IL river
valley where 30% risk of damaging winds and 5% risk of tornadoes.
A 1008 mb surface low pressure over central IA and a 1007 mb low
pressure over sw KS will eject ne and pull the cold front se over
central IL overnight, and thru southeast IL by mid Sunday
morning. Lows tonight to range from around 50F nw of the IL river,
to 60-65F along the Wabash river. Windy on Sunday with WNW winds
15-25 mph and gusts 25-35 mph ushering in much cooler air. Highs
Sunday range from mid 50s from Peoria and Bloomington north to
the mid 60s by the Wabash river. Clouds to decrease from west to
east during Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The coldest night of the season expected Sunday night as skies
clear and winds lighten up with 1030 mb high pressure settling
into OK by dawn Monday and ridging into central IL. Lows in the
upper 30s and lower 40s. A few patches of frost possible late
Sunday night and early Monday morning in low lying areas north of
I-70. An upper level trof over IL on Monday along with surface
ridge to keep it cool with highs Monday in the lower 60s. Another
seasonably cool night Monday night with lows mostly in the lower
40s.

A nice stretch of fall weather expected Tuesday through Saturday
as upper level trof pulls away from IL as surface ridge shifts
into the southeast states and getting a return southerly flow.
Strong upper level ridge builds over the eastern US later in the
week to keep it dry and bring in warmer weather. Highs Tue in the
upper 60s, then in the lower 70s Wed and in the 70s Thu-Sat. An
approaching cold front from the nw could bring next chance of
convection next Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect PIA and BMI this
afternoon with MVFR conditions possible with thunderstorms
especially at PIA. This convection close to a warm front just
south of I-80 in northern IL and ties to a 1008 mb in se CO. I-72
airports will see broken VFR ceilings around 5k ft at times this
afternoon while convection drops southward toward them during this
evening. Added LLWS to TAFs from 02Z-10Z with 2k ft sw winds of
45-55 kts while surface SSW winds of 10-15 kts and gusts of 18-24
kts. Cold front passes through overnight with SSW winds switching
WNW and increase to 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts by Sunday
morning. MVFR ceilings also expected behind the cold front later
tonight into Sunday morning as showers end between 11-13Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Springfield`s low of 67F at 8 am this morning matches the record
warm low of 67F set on Oct 14, 1899. If temperature stays at or
above 67F through 1 am cdt tonight, it will tie a new record warm
low for Oct 14th. Lincoln rose to 86F at 2 pm and broke the record
high of 85F set in 1908. Springfield rose to 88F at 212 pm and
tied the record high set back in 1897.

Here are the Record Highs for Today Oct 14th...

Lincoln....... 86 in 2017
Havana........ 86 in 1989
Rantoul....... 86 in 1989
Galesburg..... 87 in 1947
Springfield... 88 in 1897 & 2017
Peoria........ 89 in 1897
Bloomington... 89 in 1899
Danville...... 89 in 1897
Rushville..... 89 in 1947
Effingham..... 90 in 1899
Minonk........ 90 in 1897
Champaign..... 91 in 1899
Sullivan...... 91 in 1899
Robinson...... 91 in 1899
Charleston.... 92 in 1899
Jacksonville.. 93 in 1897
Tuscola....... 93 in 1899
Decatur....... 94 in 1899

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07
CLIMATE...07



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