Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 210738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
238 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

A surface low will continue moving eastward today up the Ohio River
Valley while high pressure builds into the upper Midwest. Very light
showers continue this morning over portions of east central IL and
these will slowly taper off over the morning hours as the upper low
lingers over the region. Skies will clear through the day from
northwest to southeast under the subsidence associated with the
high...although forecast soundings indicate a layer of scattered
cumulus developing around the 5000 foot level with daytime heating.
Highs today should warm a few to several degrees to the low to mid
70s...especially over southeast IL where rain held temperatures down
to the low 60s Friday. North winds around 10 mph will develop today
due to pressure gradients between the departing low and the
approaching high pressure.


.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Upper level ridging currently over the Plains will drift eastward
over the next couple of days, as the corresponding surface high
moves across the Midwest. This will result in some dry weather for
Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will warm nicely with the passage of
the high, generally reaching the 80 degree range both days.

Once the high passes, a more active weather pattern will prevail,
with gradually warmer and more humid conditions, along with periods
of showers and thunderstorms. Have slowed down the arrival of the
rain, mainly limiting chances west of I-55 Monday night and Tuesday.
After that, upper level waves will track out of the southwest U.S.
through the week to help produce additional showers and storms over
the entire forecast area. Have increased PoP`s on Wednesday to about
60% over the southeast half of the CWA with decent model agreement
at this range, but further out in time, the picture becomes a bit
murkier. The ECMWF tries to paint at least one dry day (Thursday),
while the GFS is stronger with its Thursday wave and thus features
more showers and storms. The lower PoP`s for Thursday are a bit of a
nod toward the ECMWF solution, but chances increase again late week
with a piece of the southwest upper trough ejecting northeast and
closing off over the northern or central Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

VFR aviation weather conditions expected to persist across the
central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. An
upper-level disturbance will slowly pull away from the area
overnight into early Saturday, allowing CIGS to gradually scatter
out. Northerly winds AOB 10 kts are expected through the period.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Geelhart
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