Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 201806 AAC
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
106 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

High pressure was centered over the Great Lakes region and was
feeding dry east winds in the low levels into the cwa. Mid/high
level clouds were over most of the area. Dewpoints were in the 30s
in our northeast and upper 40s in our south. 3 am temperatures
ranged from the mid 40s in northwest IL to the upper 50s in our
western and southern counties.

An upper level trough was located in the central/southern Plains
and was producing an area of showers across central/southern MO
where Pwat`s were over an inch, and surface dewpoints were 50+.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Forecast focus on a chance of showers in our south today.

Today...Upper level trough will be moving across the mid and lower
MS valley and this is where the better forcing/moisture will
exist. A weak vort max will rotate northeast into our far southern
cwa today. This may help trigger a few light showers or sprinkles
but a deep layer of easterly winds will keep the low levels dry.
Therefore, much of the rain should remain aloft so will keep pops
at less than 30 percent in the far south. QPF amounts should be a
trace to .03. Over the remainder of the cwa even drier air is
noted on the forecast soundings and no rain is expected. Rain
chances will be ending by late afternoon. Maximum temperatures
will range from the lower 70s north (thinner clouds) to the mid to
upper 60s south (thicker clouds).

Tonight...the trough will shift into the OH valley with subsidence
in the wake of the system. High pressure will be building into the
area so clearing skies can be expected. Minimum temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Expect a quiet weekend, followed by a return to active weather next
week.

On Saturday, upper ridging will begin to build into the region from
the west. Expect a mostly sunny sky and light winds. Afternoon highs
will reach the mid 70s, near to slightly above normal for the date.
For Sunday, surface winds will become southerly with the upper ridge
axis across the forecast area. Warmer temps are forecast, with highs
in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

On Monday, the upper flow will become southwesterly with increasing
moisture and dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s likely. Synoptic
models are in general agreement on showers and thunderstorms
developing during the day, then becoming more widespread Monday
night.

Looking ahead, Tuesday through Thursday will be continued warm with
persistent southwest flow and continued rain chances. Will continue
to carry pops throughout the period, as it is difficult to rule out
any particular period, but there will be plenty of dry stretches.
Right now, there are indications that Wednesday may be most favored
for some severe weather potential, although that is a very
preliminary assessment. The general pattern, time of year, and
temp/dewpoint progs do suggest there will be one or more windows for
severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period as winds slacken
today and tonight and then turn north tomorrow. Clouds should move
out of the area tonight and lead to clear skies across the area
tomorrow.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Gibbs



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