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000
FXUS63 KDVN 012336
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
536 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CST EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. TO THE NORTH... 1040+ MB
CANADIAN HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENT MUCH OF THE DAY NORTH OF
HWY 30 IN ZONE OF MOD/STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES.
SNOW WITHIN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

MOD/STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES JET AND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES (EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO) SUPPORTS SNOW
OVERSPREADING REST OF CWA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
MAIN FOCUS GRADUALLY SETTLING SOUTHWARD IN TIME ACROSS CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AM. STILL SOME VARIANCES ON QPF BUT
TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF POTENTIAL 2 MAIN CORRIDORS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER ACCUMS WITH ONE FROM HWY 20 SOUTHWARD THROUGH HWY 30 THROUGH
THIS EVENING (ROUGHLY ATTENDANT TO WYOMING IMPULSE TRACKING
EASTWARD)... AND THE OTHER NEAR TO SOUTH OF HWY 34 LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUN AM (ROUGHLY ATTENDANT TO EASTERN COLORADO
IMPULSE TRACKING EAST/NORTHEAST). FEW TO SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
GOOD SNOWFALL RATES (0.5 INCH+/HR) DURING PEAK FORCING SUPPORTIVE
OF 2-5 INCH TOTALS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA FOR MANY COULD BE TOWARD THE LOWER END
OF THIS RANGE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HWY 30 THROUGH I-80. CANT
ALSO RULE OUT FAR SOUTHERN CWA BEING CLOSE TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS IN
FEW LOCATIONS. OVERALL... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN INTACT.
WINDS NORTHERLY TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES MAY CREATE SOME DRIFTING
ESPECIALLY ON EAST...WEST ROADWAYS. IN TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING THE THREAT NORTHWEST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA WILL TRANSITION
TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

SUNDAY...SNOW ENDING SOUTH IN THE AM FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL THINNING
OF CLOUDS NORTH HALF. BRISK AND VERY COLD WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
FRESH SNOW COVER TO LIMIT HIGHS MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10
DEGS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RECORD COLD SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK CLIPPERS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EXTENDED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DVN
CWA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY
PLUMMET. WILL FORECAST RECORD LOWS FOR ALL THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SITES
BUT HOPEFULLY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP READINGS FROM
REACHING THE ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH...SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW. WILL FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 18 BELOW AT
INDEPENDENCE TO 5 BELOW AT MACOMB. IF WINDS ACTUALLY GO CALM FOR A
WHILE THEN THESE READINGS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH! IF THAT`S NOT BAD
ENOUGH THEN BASED ON THE FORECAST OF WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WE WILL
HAVE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW. THIS
WOULD BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND LAST TO ABOUT MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OF 35 BELOW
IN A FEW COUNTIES IN OUR NW CWA. HEADLINES FOR THE COLD WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE NEEDED. STILL VERY COLD ON MONDAY WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 12 ABOVE...AT LEAST
30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE OF A
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND AS THE NEW WEEK
PROGRESSES. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HOWEVER...A BIT
COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION BUT WITH MOISTURE LIMITED ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS TO COVER
THESE WEAK SYSTEMS.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE SNOW...IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CAN
BE EXPECTED IN SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL VARY BETWEEN 1 MILE AND 1/2
MILE THROUGH THE EVENT. THE FIRST TO IMPROVE AS THE SNOW ENDS WILL
BE NORTHEAST IOWA...GENERALLY TOWARDS 04 TO 06Z/02. AS THIS
OCCURS...A RAPID SHIFT TOWARDS CONSISTENTLY VFR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THIS END TO PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH CID AND MLI A FEW
HOURS LATER...GENERALLY IN THE HOURS BEFORE DAWN. BRL WILL BE THE
LAST TO IMPROVE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SUNDAY. NORTH
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL BLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS MAY
CREATE VERY SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW ON REGIONAL AIR FIELDS.

ERVIN

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 3...

BURLINGTON..... -3 IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -9 IN 1913
DUBUQUE........ -10 IN 2002
MOLINE......... -8 IN 1884

MARCH RECORD LOWS...

BURLINGTON..... -13 03/05/1960
CEDAR RAPIDS... -20 03/01/1962
DUBUQUE........ -20 03/01/1962
MOLINE......... -19 03/06/1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR CARROLL-JO
     DAVIESS-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
CLIMATE...HAASE