Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 181737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1237 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016


Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Record breaking day on Monday with record highs being established
at Burlington, IA (89) and Moline, IL (89), and record warm lows
being shattered at Dubuque, IA (previous 61 in 1965+) and Moline,
IL (previous 63 in 1994). The record heat extended from portions
of the Upper Midwest all the way to the Southern Plains where
dozens of records fell, most notably at Dodge City, KS which set
a new record high for the entire month of October on Monday, topping
out at 101 degrees. A cold front is just entering the county warning
area early this morning. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front
were holding temperatures well above normal highs for the date
with readings in the lower to mid 70s. Meanwhile, behind the front
with northwest winds and areas of stratus temperatures drop
through the 60s with upper 50s over portions of north central Iowa.
The cold front will pass through the area by mid morning, and
sweep away the record warmth replacing it with cooler air, although
temperatures will still remain above normal.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Highs for today in most areas have already occurred shortly after
midnight. The cold front will pass by mid morning with
temperatures falling to around 60 northwest to around 70
southeast, also accompanied by a period of low cloudiness. Precip
chances are by no means zero, but too low for mention and if it
were to occur would be patchy drizzle or possibly a few
sprinkles. Thereafter, mixing of dry air aloft and shallow nature
of low level moisture should allow for a return of mostly sunny
skies by afternoon. This should allow for some recovery on
temperatures into the mid/upper 60s northwest to mid 70s southeast
by mid to late afternoon.

Tonight will likely bring an increase in high cloudiness attendant
to right entrance region of Great Lakes 125+ kt H25 jet.
Any precipitation should be confined well to our south across
portions of central and southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley where
the best juxtaposition of lift and low level moisture will reside.
Otherwise, high pressure will build in at the surface with winds
becoming light northerly continuing to usher in drier air. Lows
will be somewhat tricky and dependent on opaqueness of cirrus, and
because of the potential for it to be fairly dense I have opted to
side with warm side of guidance blend for lows with generally
upper 40s and lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Turning cooler through the end of the work week followed by
moderating temperatures for the weekend.

A storm system will pass close to the area Wednesday and Wednesday
night. The bulk of the moisture will be well south of the area so
only light rain showers or sprinkles are expected. The model
consensus has slight chance to chance pops for the area.

On Thursday an upper level disturbance will move through the area.
Moisture is limited but the forcing provided by the disturbance may
be enough to generate some isolated showers or sprinkles during the
day. Temperatures will average below normal.

Dry conditions will be seen Thursday night as cool Canadian high
pressure builds into the Midwest. There may or may not be a threat
of frost prior to sunrise Friday.

Friday on...

With the exception of Friday night, the model consensus has dry
conditions from Friday through Monday. The main storm tracks are
well north and south of the area. Temperatures should average close
to normal over the weekend.

On Friday night, there will be a weak upper level disturbance moving
through the area. Although moisture is limited, the forcing provided
by the disturbance may be enough to generate some showers. The model
consensus has slight chance pops over the northeast third of the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

High pressure building acrs the region from the west behind a
passing cold front will ensure a VFR TAF cycle into Wed morning.
Northwest sfc winds of 8-12 KTs will go light this evening. Light
northeasterly winds of 3-6 KTs by late Wed morning, with high
clouds thickening from the southwest.   ..12..




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