Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 262008
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
308 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

WARM AND DRY EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY TOPSOIL...ABUNDANT
SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINING TO BOOST TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL TO AROUND 80/LOWER 80S. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED TO NEAR THE
IA/MO BORDER EARLY THIS AFTN WITH REFORMING GREAT LAKES UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING REX BLOCK AND AIDING IN RETROGRESSION OR W/SW MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW. CLUSTER OF MID CLOUDINESS NEAR KLWD DENOTES MAIN CIRCULATION
CENTER... WHICH BROUGHT ISOLD WEAK CONVECTION EARLIER THIS AM
OVER PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN IA... AND IS AIDING RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS JUST E/SE OF THE CIRCULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NEAR EASTERN TIP OF LAKE HURON
DURING THE PERIOD... AND WILL RESULT IN UPPER LOW MIGRATING NORTHWARD.
UKMET VERIFYING BEST WITH PLACEMENT OF CIRCULATION ATTIM AND SHOWS
MAIN VORT MAX LIFTING TO NEAR IA/MN BORDER NORTH OF SPENCER IA BY 00Z
SUN. ANY PCPN CHCS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO JUST E/SE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND ITS TRACK... THUS MAINLY WEST OF CWA ALTHOUGH VERY LOW
PROBS OF SOME ACTIVITY SKIRTING FAR WEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TNGT
INTO SAT AM. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
AS FOR TEMPS LITTLE CHANGE NOTED THERMALLY... THUS TEMPS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THOSE OF PAST DAY OR TWO WITH MAINLY 50S FOR LOWS TNGT AND
HIGHS SAT AROUND 80/LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT SE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

QUIET WEATHER UNDER UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS. BY MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BECOME
PROGRESSIVE AGAIN...RESULTING IN A FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY.

THIS STABLE PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MANY DRY DAYS LIKE TODAY...WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES AROUND 75 TO 80...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. THIS RATHER SPECTACULAR WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AS NOTED TODAY...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD DROP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT...THUS UNHARVESTED CROPS WILL DRY
DOWN EFFECTIVELY IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL.  THROUGH SUNDAY...I
CONSIDER THIS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

FOLLOWING SUNDAY...THE SLOWLY EASTWARD PROGRESSING SHOULD DRIVE A
FRONT...LIKELY WITH AT LEAST TWO WAVES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG
IT...THROUGH THE MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS HANDLED
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT WITH RESPECT TO TIME IN THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF 12Z
RUNS. HOWEVER...THE OVER ALL SYNOPTIC FEATURE ARE CONSISTENT WITHIN
THE MODEL SUITE. THUS...OUR POPS ARE UNFORTUNATELY SPREAD OVER
SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING TUESDAY...ENDING FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE THAT THIS EVENT SHOULD BE 2 DAYS OR LESS IN DURATION.
AS WE MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS I EXPECT THE FORECAST POPS
TO NARROW TO A SHORTER TIME PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA LATE WEEK...ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL AIR MASS
SHOULD SWEEP INTO THE MIDWEST.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE TAF CYCLE WITH S/SE WINDS 5-10 KTS...SCT
MID CLOUDS AND FEW-SCT PM CUMULUS. PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...MCCLURE





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