Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 210433
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1133 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

You know you`ve rounded the corner of seasonal change when a cold
front brings north winds and a nice day behind it. While there
are plenty of mid clouds to be found in the Midwest, an area of
subsidence behind the small convective system that impacted our
area last night has provided ample sunshine that has neutralized
out the affects of cold advection today. As of 2 PM, temperatures
range from around 60 north to around 70 south, and should rise a
few more degrees before 5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

The northeast winds will continue this evening, though will lose the
mixing depth by sunset and with that, they should fall under 10 mph
for the most part. Under mostly clear skies initially, a good
radiational cooling night is forecast for lows to drop to the 30s in
most spots. By the early morning hours, mid clouds should arrive in
the west and quickly spread over the entire area. This mid level
warm advection should eventually saturate into an area of light
rainfall over the southern 1/3 of the CWA. Amounts of rain Tuesday
late morning through afternoon appear on the order of 0.10 or less,
with the main impact being a rather cool and cloudy day where rain
occurs. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy day is forecast for the remainder
of the CWA, north of Interstate 80, where confidently dry conditions
are forecast.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

The overall flow aloft across the northern hemisphere is very
conducive for an active weather regime through the end of March.
This scenario is starting to play out with storms lining up across
the Pacific and into eastern Asia. Some of the extratropical
cyclones that develop across the CONUS will have the potential to be
strong.

Dry conditions will be seen Tuesday night through Wednesday night as
cold Canadian high pressure settles across the Great Lakes.
Attention then turns to the first of several storm systems.

The strength of the high and depth of the dry air will determine
when precipitation develops on Thursday. Right now chance pops are
west of a Vinton, Iowa to Jacksonville, IL line. However, there is a
reasonable chance that most if not all of the area will remain dry
Thursday morning.

Thursday afternoon rain should slowly move through the area as
increased forcing acts upon a front moving into the area.

Thursday night on...

The overall weather pattern becomes quite active from Thursday night
through next Monday with several storm systems moving through the
Midwest. The models continue to vary considerably from run to run on
the overall track and details regarding each storm system.

What is important to remember is that there will be dry periods from
Thursday night into early next week. There will not be a continuous
rain during the entire time period.

Thursday night the model consensus has slight chance to chance pops
across the area. The rain will end from south to north during the
night as the front moves north out of the area.

On Friday the model consensus has mainly dry conditions for the
area. Temperatures will average well above normal.

Starting Friday night, the global models diverge on their respective
solutions. This divergence of solutions is traceable to how each
model handles the individual pieces of energy as they enter the
western CONUS and move across North America.

In looking at the large scale flow pattern, the only consistent
signal that the models agree that the Gulf will be open and
supplying abundant moisture for each storm system.

If the Gulf is open and supplying moisture to each storm system,
then most of the precipitation that occurs should be in the form of
rain. Additionally, thunderstorms will also be possible.

Right now the model consensus has likely to categorical pops Friday
night, mainly chance pops Saturday/Saturday night, and slight chance
to chance pops Sunday/Sunday night. There may or may not be a period
of dry weather during the day on Sunday.

On Monday, the model consensus has chance pops for the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

VFR conditions will continue overnight through Tuesday with high
level cloud cover and north to northeast surface winds. A weak
upper level system is expected to spread a band of light rain
across southeast Iowa into west central Illinois around mid
morning into early afternoon. Confidence in the timing and
placement of this fairly narrow band is low and thus a prob30
group is maintained for the BRL terminal. Any rain will be light
with little impact expected.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Sheets



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