Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 071200
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
700 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

TODAY...LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST COOL FRONT SAGGING THROUGH THE
CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST ATTM...WITH WESTERN PORTION OF IT LAYING OUT
JUST SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA IN LINGERING LLVL CONVERGENCE. SMALL
MCS THAT HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THIS FEATURE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEB
EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DIURNALLY. CLOSER TO HOME...JUST EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY
POST-FRONTAL DAY/EXCEPT SOME HIGHER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACRS THE SOUTH/
WITH SFC DPTS KEEPING MIXED DOWN IN THE MID 60S AND AMBIENT TEMPS
ALLOWED TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL FCST
AREA...EXCEPT MAYBE NORTH OF HWY 30 MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID
80S. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR INDICATING A RATHER VIGOROUS VORT MAX ACRS
SOUTHWESTERN ALBERTA...WITH IT LOOKING TO PROPAGATE DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD IN NORTHWESTERLIES TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN BY THIS
EVENING. OTHER WEAKER WAVE NOTED ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY SET
IT/S SITE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS/NEB AREA BY THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP
SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED TO SCTRD LEAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE MAKING IT
THIS FAR EAST. BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO OF THE CWA BEING DRY
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER CHALLENGING MCS DEVELOPMENT AND WHERE WILL IT
TRACK FCST TO HAMMER OUT. WITH THE MN VORT IN INCOMING DIGGING
TROF ALOFT PUSHING ACRS MN AND INTO WI...AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS
VORT BECOMING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED AND THEN ROLLING ALONG THE
IA/MO BORDER OR EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE DVN CWA COULD BE
IN- BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN FORCING REGIONS TONIGHT. COULD HAVE A
LARGE STORM CLUSTER OR ELEVATED MCS TYPE FEATURE MOVING ACRS MN
INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF WI...WHILE STRONG CONVECTION BLOSSOMS ALONG
THE KS/NEB BORDER REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN PUSHES LARGELY ACRS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF MO INTO WEST CENTRAL/SW IL OVERNIGHT MAINLY
JUST MISSING THE DVN CWA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WHAT
THE 00Z RUN NAM AND GFS DO WITH THEIR HEAVY RAIN AXIS MOVING ACRS
NORTHERN MO. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WOULD CLIP
THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES OR SO WITH AT LEAST 1 INCH TO
AN 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN BY 12Z TUE MORNING...AND THE 00Z CANADIAN
GEM ALONG WITH MCS FORCING PARAMETERS OF THE UKMET WOULD TARGET
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR EVEN HALF OF THE DVN CWA WITH A HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING MCS AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN A MATURE
STAGE AS WELL. AFTER ASSESSING SEVERAL MORE MCS PARAMETERS...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND ADVERTISE THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE MCS MAKING IT ACRS THE FAR SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE DVN CWA
OR A BIT FURTHER NORTH FROM 04Z-10Z OR SO AND ADJUST POPS AND QPF
ACCORDINGLY. CONVERGENT PWAT FEED OF 1.7 TO NEAR 2 INCHES
MAXIMIZES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA EVEN ON THE EURO PLACEMENT FOR
THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN ACRS NORTHERN THIRD OF MO...BUT
STILL COULD SEE A GENERAL SECONDARY HEAVY RAIN SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH OF HWY 34. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE SOUTHERN AREAS... BUT IF A NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT IS NOTED BY 12Z ANALYSIS AND MODEL RUNS...ONE MAY BE
WARRANTED TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...SEE
MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BY THE TIME A PORTION OF THE MCS
CLIPS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR THE SAME AREAS THAT MAY GET THE HEAVY
RAIN...OTHER WISE POINTS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA
MORE FAVORED. FURTHER TOT HE NORTH ACRS THE REST OF THE AREA MAY
SEE MORE OF A SCTRD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN BETWEEN THE
TWO MAIN CONVECTIVE HOT ZONES OF MO/WI. WITH A BIT DRIER VERTICAL
PROFILE AND STILL ADEQUATE SHEAR IN THESE AREAS...ISOLATED SVR
STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WITH BOTH HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE. AS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THIS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA SCENARIO...COULD SEE
SPOTTY/HIT AND MISS AREAS OF 0.25 UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY TUE
MORNING. WILL ADVERTISE LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH BY DAWN TUE.
   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
LATE IN THE WEEK.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. CONSENSUS BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. BY LATE THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED H5 WAVE INTO IOWA.
THE MAIN IMPACTS ON THE DVN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE LOW AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS POOR BEYOND FRIDAY...BUT LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

AFTER SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG LIFTS IN AN HOUR OR SO SOUTH OF I80...EXPECT
A VFR DAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCTRD FAIR WX
CU AND PASSING HIGH CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM STORMS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8-13 KTS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. THEN TONIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AS STORMS
DEVELOP ACRS THE REGION ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I80. THE BRL TAF SITE
HAS THE BEST CHC TO BE IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AFTER 10 PM
CDT TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE A CHANCE THAT THE MAIN STORM
COMPLEX MOVES EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF BRL. TO THE NORTH OF
THAT...JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE VCNTY OF THE OTHER SITES TONIGHT. AFTER STORMS PASS...IF WEST WINDS
ARE LIGHT ENOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN AFTER 08Z
TUE MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

SATURDAY STORMS PRODUCED ONLY SPORADIC RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...RADAR ESTIMATES AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IN THE UPPER
WAPSI BASIN BETWEEN TRIPOLI AND INDEPENDENCE...AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS
IN THE SKUNK RIVER BASIN NEAR OSKALOOSA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD
HAVE SOME MINOR IMPACTS IN THOSE BASINS...BUT OVERALL...THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL CONCERNS AFTER THE SATURDAY EVENT. LOOKING
AHEAD...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS FAVORED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT...WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS
WOULD BE IN THE DES MOINES...FOX...AND LA MOINE BASINS. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL
EXTEND TONIGHT. AFTER TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12
HYDROLOGY...RP KINNEY





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