Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 172336
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LARGE MULTI-CENTERED RIDGE
COMPLEX STILL REIGNING ACRS THE REGION FROM IA/MO EASTWARD ACRS THE
GRT LKS AND OH RVR VALLEY. ALOFT...BROAD UNORGANIZED/UNPHASED
TROFFINESS FROM NORTHEAST OF THE GRT LKS...TO THE SOUTHWEST PLAINS.
LOOKING AT THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP THE MAIN WAVE ACRS THE MID
CONUS WAS NOTED ACRS OK/THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...WITH A SECONDARY
AND MUCH WEAKER VORT ROLLING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS SOUTHEASTERN
MN. THUS THE DVN CWA REMAINS LARGELY IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND JUST
FRECKLED BY DIURNAL CELLULAR CU. MOST OBSERVING STATIONS READING
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SFC DPTS BEING DRY DOWN-MIXED
MAINTAINED IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

TONIGHT...AFTER CELLULAR CU DIURNALLY WANES...EXPECT A MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND REGIME AGAIN. BUT SOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW GRADIENT COULD KEEP SFC WINDS GOING AT 3-5
KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND SOME CIRRUS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS
WAVE MAY DRIFT ACRS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE FACTORS ALONG
WITH SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION SUGGEST LOWS TONIGHT 2-6 DEGREES
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT AT MOST STATIONS. THUS MOST LOWS TO FALL IN
THE 53-59 DEGREE RANGE WINDOW.

FRIDAY...MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PASS EASTWARD ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR
VALLEY...WHILE THE SFC RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR THE
MAIN CENTER TO BE ACRS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GRT LKS BY LATE IN THE
DAY. ONGOING AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOMEWHAT BETTER MIXING REGIME
ON FURTHER WESTERN FLANK OF DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWER 80S FOR FRI HIGHS. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF SCTRD AMBIENT CU WITH AREAS OF BKN COVERAGE AT TIMES.
ONE FACTOR THOUGH COULD BE IF MORE CLOUD COVER OFF THE PASSING SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH SKIRTS ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND HOLDS TEMPS DOWN MORE
IN THE REALM OF LOW TO MID 70S LIKE WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON ACRS
PORTIONS OF KS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEB. BUT FOR NOW WILL BANK ON THE
MAJORITY OF THIS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ENOUGH TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL FCST AREA.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

MODERATION FOR ALL THINGS.  WELL...IN RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THIS UPCOMING WEEK...THAT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE THE CASE.
WHILE NO ABRUPT WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD
MODERATE OUR WAY TO A WARM AND HUMID PERIOD...MOST NOTABLY BEGINNING
SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IT APPEARS WE WILL CONTINUE
THE STREAK OF OPEN WINDOW WEATHER...AS LOWS DIP TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW 65...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH
THE 79 TO 82 MARK.  SUNDAY...CONTINUED MODERATION...SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MIXING...AND CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TO
THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS...HEAT
INDEX READINGS WILL BE 85 TO 90 OVER THE CWA...WHICH MEANS
AIR CONDITIONERS WILL BE HUMMING AGAIN.

THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

MODELS ARE DIVERGENT ON TIMING FORCING INTO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGESTING A WET PERIOD
POSSIBLE...AND THE GFS REMAINING DRY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE MOST
PART. WE WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SLIGHT TO LOWER CHANCE POPS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER ON SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THIS
PERIOD...AND THE OVER ALL OUTLOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE MUCH
BETTER AGREED ON BY THE 12Z MODEL SUITE THAN IN PAST RUNS. SINCE IT
WILL HAVE BEEN OVER A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER FOR ALL CWA
COUNTIES...THIS RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL SHOULD IT
VERIFY.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MISSIOURI NORTHEASTWARD TO INDIANA
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO KBRL...KCID...KMLI...AND
KDBQ. EXPECT SCT CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 16 UTC ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...COUSINS






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