000
FXUS63 KMKX 090842
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MILD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO OVERSPREAD WISCONSIN. STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL GRADIENT
PUSHES 925 MB TEMPS FROM ABOUT -5C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT +3C LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS ABOUT 42F FOR A MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE AND 47F FOR ADIABATIC. GIVEN THE MID CLOUD COVER
FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS.

RAW 2 METER TEMPS FROM GFS AND NAM ARE VERY COLD...BARELY
CRACKING THE FREEZING MARK. THE MET AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE ARE
RATHER COOL TOO...BUT ECMWF MOS SUGGESTS LOWER 40S. WILL HONOR THE
925 MB TEMPS AND GO ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH FLOW IN THE 850-900 MB LAYER OF 50-60
KNOTS SHOULD DRIVE THE 925 MB TEMPS UP TO ABOUT +8C BY 06Z AND
+10C BY 12Z. EVEN WITH A WEAK INVERSION FORMING THIS WOULD MEAN
STEADY TO RISING TEMPERATURES. WILL ALLOW A DROP OF ABOUT 5F FROM
DAYTIME HIGHS BUT CONCERNED THAT TEMPS MAY NOT DROP MUCH.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING MILD AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...AS WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. DESPITE THE SNOW
COVER OVER THE AREA...925MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. BROUGHT HIGHS MONDAY
UPWARDS TO REFLECT THIS. VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY QPF IN NAM/GFS WAS
IGNORED...AS AIR COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY ABOVE INVERSION. IGNORED
VERY COLD 2 METER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FALL
BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S...STILL MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOWING AN ELONGATED WEST TO EAST BAND OF QPF
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS THIS QPF IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH
THE NAM JUST IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE
MODELS HAVE VARYING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 6000 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST AND ECMWF/CANADIAN
THE WETTEST.

AREA OF GOOD 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET STREAK. STRONG 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OR THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWER ON NAM/ECMWF AND QUICKER ON
GFS/CANADIAN.

AMOUNT OF QPF ON CANADIAN/ECMWF SEEMS HIGH...AS DEEP COLUMN
MOISTURE MAY BE OVERDONE. WENT WITH LOWER QPF AMOUNTS...AND COULD
GO LOWER IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION BECOMES MORE
REALISTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

FOR NOW...KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST TUESDAY...LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES LINGERING TUESDAY NIGHT. INCLUDED A MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING ALL LIGHT RAIN BY AFTERNOON. A SHIFT
BACK TO LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
COOL OFF.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

LINGERED LOW END POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY. LIGHT QPF ON ECMWF CROSSES THE AREA...WITH THE GFS
KEEPING QPF TO THE NORTH. KEPT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED
POPS IN LATER FORECASTS FOR THIS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF THEN DIFFER SOMEWHAT
WITH FEATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SO USED CONSENSUS MODEL
POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PATCHY MVFR FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLY GRADIENT RESULTS
IN WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 25-30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FLOW GETS QUITE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 50-60 KNOTS
SHOWN FROM ABOUT 1500 FEET UP THROUGH 5000 FEET. SO LIKELIHOOD OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE THE FLOW RELAXES A BIT TO ABOUT 40 KNOTS AFTER THE
MIDDLE EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS DROPPING DOWN TO ABOUT 10000 FEET
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TODAY...MAINLY FROM THE
MIDDAY HOURS UNTIL LATE EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

MILD WEATHER AND INCREASING SUN ANGLE WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL LOSS
OF ICE COVER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT DURING WINDY PERIODS IN THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH WAVES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ICE FREE AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BRING BRISK WEST WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRAVEN
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD