Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 050839
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HIGH IN THE SFC-925 MB
LAYER...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KEAU TO KSBM. THE
FRONT WILL BET A BOOST BY THE LAKE BREEZE TODAY WITH ELY WINDS
GETTING ESTABLISHED OVER ERN WI BEFORE NOON. THE ELY WINDS WILL
EXTEND ACROSS ALL OF SRN WI BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT FAIR WX CU BUT NO PCPN. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND MID TO UPPER 70S OVER ERN WI. A
VERY LGT ESELY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL TNT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S ONCE AGAIN.

THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD STRONG OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE AND MAX
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE LAKE TO THE LOWER 80S WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY COULD
TRIGGER AN MCS THAT TRACKS INTO WI SOMETIME LATE THU NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THE CANADIAN IS SIMILAR... BUT SLOWER. THE NAM SHOWS THE SYSTEM
DRYING UP BEFORE IT GETS TO SOUTHEAST WI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
DECAYING AND RUNNING INTO A LOT OF DRY AIR. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BE WEAK OVER US... AS WILL SPEED SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS DECENT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS... POSSIBLY STRONG... WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN WI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES WHILE AN
UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SETS UP A TEMPORARY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. AN
ANTICIPATED UPSTREAM MCS SHOULD TRACK THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS ON
SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WI AND
THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WOULD BE TOO HIGH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
BRING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY WHICH COULD
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ALONG AN 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN WI FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEATHER LOOKS FAIRLY DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TNT. A WEAK FRONT AND
LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING ELY WINDS TO ERN WI TODAY. SCT FAIR WX
CUMULUS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE LAKE. A WEAK ESELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TNT WITH MO CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC


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