000
FXUS63 KMKX 020308
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
908 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

NEW 00Z NAM CAME IN WARMER BETWEEN 3 AND 9 THSD FT AND HAS MORE
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS LAYER. IF THE GFS CONTINUES THIS
TREND...SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST WOULD LIKELY NEED TO BE REDUCED WITH
MORE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. SHOULD STILL START AS SNOW.
EITHER WAY APPEARS AREAS WOULD EVENTUALLY NEED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SNOW MAY BEGIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
EXCEPT TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND
LINGERING INTO MONDAY.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS...BEFORE WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS SNOW MOVES IN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT IS THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS ARE ERODING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA...AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS IS LIMITING THE IMPACT FROM THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS...WILL END FLURRIES WEST TO EAST BY
EARLY EVENING...AND BRING IN CLEARING BY LATE EVENING.

COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT. WINDS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT...SO LOWS MAY DROP MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS A RESULT. WENT A
LITTLE BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS...IN THE 5 ABOVE TO
9 ABOVE ZERO RANGE INLAND...AND AROUND 12 ABOVE ZERO LAKESIDE.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 20S IN MOST AREAS...NEAR
CONSENSUS OF MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SYSTEM EVOLUTION. STILL LOOKING AT A VERY
STRONG UPPER JET DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION SUPPLYING A PERIOD OF DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. THIS
TRIGGERS RAPID SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF
NE/KS...INCLUDING A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
THE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO TRACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN LATER TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT/S A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF OUR PRECIP WILL COME WITH THE
IMPRESSIVE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THIS SNOW. OVERALL...
THE NEW 12Z MODELS LOOK WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN...BUT MOST OF THIS WARMER AIR COMES IN AFTER THE MAIN PRECIP
ACCUM MOVES THROUGH. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE MOSTLY LEFT UNCHANGED. ABOUT
1-2 INCHES ALONG THE BORDER TO 4-5 INCHES WELL NORTH OF MILWAUKEE
AND MADISON.

THE SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE QUICKLY AFTER ABOUT 3 AM MONDAY
NIGHT...SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME
MIXED WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AFTER
MID MORNING...BUT PRECIP RATES WILL DIMINISHING BY THE TIME THAT
OCCURS. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOOK FOR THE PRECIP TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING MID TO LATE MORNING.

THIS COULD BE A HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON.

ALL THE PRECIP MAY WORK OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
EVENING LOOKS DRY WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THIS WILL BE A VERY QUIET PERIOD THAT STARTS OUT COLD...BUT ENDS
WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S LOW...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES IN. ONCE THE HIGH
MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND ALLOWS A WARMER
AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH TEMPS BY NEXT
WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

ON AND OFF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH SOME MIDDLE
TO HIGH CLOUDS...SHOULD LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING AT TAF SITES. MAY
SEE SOME BREAKS AT TIMES GIVEN THIN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WEST TO EAST BY LATE EVENING...LINGERING
INTO MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER WEST BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR A TIME LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THIS TIME...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING
THIS PERIOD. ICE COVERAGE REMAINS FAIRLY ROBUST OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH WAVE ACTION DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS