000
FXUS63 KMKX 090317
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
917 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
THE SNOW IS FINALLY WINDING DOWN AS THE MAIN WARM ADVECTION PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR
ACROSS IOWA...BUT THE HRRR TAKES THIS MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. NOT
SURE ABOUT THAT GIVEN THE RADAR MOVEMENT. FORTUNATELY...THIS STUFF
ISN/T VERY HEAVY. IT/S WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH.

GIVEN THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
3 MAYBE 4 HOURS...WILL NOT DO MUCH WITH THE ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT. ROADS ARE STILL IN BAD SHAPE...SO THERE/S THAT TO DEAL
WITH.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT REALLY GET CRANKED UP UNTIL ABOUT 9 OR 10 AM
MONDAY MORNING. SO THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE SPARED FROM THE
WORST DRIFTING DUE TO THE WIND.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. STILL EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 1 AM
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE...UNTIL THEY
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY ABOUT 1 AM...THEN WEST BY 4 AM.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING.
ANY LINGER IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EVENING. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA...AS FOCUSED LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. GOOD BAND OF MODERATE
SNOW EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN DENDRITE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...AS POTENT 500MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

BUMPED UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT...MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST WHERE THE
STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. GOING WITH
A 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A 4 TO 6 INCHES
IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR
THE AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES EARLY...IF SNOW ENDS SOONER THAN EXPECTED THERE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND CAUSE
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH TO SOUTH ROADS. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER IF A HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MONDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED...WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST ON TUESDAY MORNING. GFS MORE ROBUST ON THE QPF
FIELD INTO THE NORTHERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE FURTHER
NORTH. WITH THE LEADING WAA MOISTENING THINGS UP A BIT MONDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE FLURRIES IN THE NW CWA AND THEN PUT A SMALL POP
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY AS UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUM IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES IN ON THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW. IN
THIS CASE THE FORCING IS SKEWED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH SO WILL HAVE
AREA WIDE POPS. RENEWED COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM/GFS/GEM HAS PRECIP CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
CWA WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A MORE CWA WIDE COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS QUICK HITTER UNDER AN INCH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A DRY PERIOD. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
ARISE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS. GFS QUICKLY RETURNS WAA WHILE THE
ECMWF HANGS ONTO THE COLD. WILL FOLLOW THE LATTER AT THIS
POINT...KEEPING 925 TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
WHILE THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY NORTHWEST...THE GFS AND GEM
IMPLY SOME PHASING OF SOME SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE DOMINANT WAVE WELL SOUTH AND KEEPS US
DRY. FOLLOWED ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH HAS SOME SMALL CHANCES.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE GFS KEEPS SOME PRECIP LINGERING WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE
COLD HIGH EAST OF WI WITH MODIFICATION IN THE 925 TEMPS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING...BEFORE QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF AROUND OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST RATES
OCCURRING THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...TO 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS AT
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA.

CEILINGS NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS...AND VISIBILITIES BELOW...ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WEST WINDS BY 12Z MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED...AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH TO SOUTH RUNWAYS.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z MONDAY...AS
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES LINGER. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE 4 FOOT LEVEL.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH WAVES SHOULD LINGER MAINLY OVER THE
OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA.

MAY NEED MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WITHIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE AS WELL IN THIS AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR