Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
630 FXUS63 KMKX 010307 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1007 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and less humid for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Warmer and more active Thursday into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 1001 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A few dying thunderstorms around Madison will continue to wane with time this evening. Otherwise, conditions will remain quiet into the overnight hours. There may be patchy fog during the early morning hours in areas that received rain over central WI this evening, given subsidence that will move overhead tonight. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Rest of this Afternoon through Tuesday night: An initial cold front will continue eastward this afternoon. A few showers and perhaps a very brief thunderstorm will remain possible ahead of front (i.e., only over far southeastern Wisconsin) until it pushes east of the area. A stronger cold front is located well northwest of the area, near the Twin Cities (as of 2 PM). This front will advance eastward tonight, along with its associated mid level shortwave. Ahead of the front, some mid level cloud cover associated with the right entrance region of an upper jet will move into the area. A few showers or storms may make it into the far northwestern CWA this evening, before dissipating. The front will clear the area by daybreak on Tuesday. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s. Tuesday looks to be a very nice day across the region, with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the low 60s. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Wednesday through Monday: A weak cold front will push southward from northern to central Wisconsin on Wednesday before stalling. A few showers or thunderstorms may make it as far south as the I-94 corridor, but for now most locations look to remain dry. Temperatures will be a touch warmer, with highs in the mid 80s. Rain chances will gradually increase Wednesday night and Thursday, as convection develops within a corridor of warm and moist advection. Some overnight development is possible Wednesday night in association with a low level jet, followed by diurnal storms during the afternoon and evening on Thursday. With weak shear and no strong forcing mechanisms, development will largely be tied to remnant boundary/outflow interactions. The continued southerly flow will set the stage for a very warm and humid 4th of July, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Rain chances will be highest later in the day, both due to peak heating and the slow approach of a cold front from the west. That front is then expected to make slow progress into the area on Saturday, with a good chance (50-60%) for showers and thunderstorms through much of the day. Heavy rain will be a risk given the slow forward speed of the front, storm motions parallel to the boundary, and PWATs in excess of 2". Uncertainty increases beyond Saturday, with questions about how far south the front will progress before stalling. Much of the ensemble guidance suggests it will clear the forecast area, with lower precipitation potential for Sunday and Monday. However, some members do keep the front over the region, with continued rain chances. These trends should hopefully become more clear over the coming days. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 1005 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A few dying thunderstorms around Madison will continue to wane with time this evening. Otherwise, outside of some potential for patchy fog where rain moved through this evening, expect overall VFR and light northwest winds into tomorrow as subsidence moves over the region. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Winds will become westerly and northwesterly tonight into Tuesday morning behind a cold front. Winds will turn back to the southwest later Wednesday and Thursday, as weak high pressure moves through the Ohio Valley. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee