Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1027 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS SRN WI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH
OVER ERN MN. THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OVER LAKE MI WITH ONLY
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. A MO SUNNY AND BREEZY...MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR
SAT.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY MORNING SAT. SKIES AND VSBYS WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SRN WI BETWEEN 07Z-11Z AS A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY NOTED. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LITTLE PUSH OF WAA NOTED WITH
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXES COMING THROUGH. AT 6Z LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN WI. WHILE OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE IS QUITE
MEAGER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON GENERATING VERY
SPOTTY AND LIGHT PRECIP. BASED ON BUFKIT ANALYSIS THIS WILL BE
DRIZZLE IF ANYTHING. SREF CIG/VSBYS PROGS IN ADDITION TO NAM MOS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE/850 FORCING. SO HAVE LOWERED THE
SMALL POPS EVEN FURTHER AND HAVE JUST MENTIONED DRIZZLE IN THE
SAME AREAS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER FROM
THE PLAINS. SO THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY
WNW WINDS. PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED WITH THE GOOD MIXING SO MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY. 925 TEMPS OF 10-12C SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

NEUTRAL 850-700MB TEMP ADVECTION AS MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
REGION SAT NGT. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING WITH NARROW SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CLEAR SKIES BUT WINDS WILL STAY
UP A BIT KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...BUT COULD GO LOWER IF
STRONGER NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND SURFACE RIDGE FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER STATE BY
SUNDAY EVENING...AND LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING. 570 DM HEIGHTS
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 573 DM INTO THE FAR
SOUTH...WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS RISING ABOUT 3C-4C BETWEEN 12Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT
SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE EAST WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE NE THIRD OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT AHEAD OF DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW-LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...700 MB OMEGA AND MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO SW 1/2 OF THE CWA 00Z MON ON NOSE OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS LOWER ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL JET RISING TO 35
KTS TO 40 KTS BY 06Z...THEN DECREASING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE
AND INITIAL 850 MB TROUGH AXIS BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE FORCING IS STRONGEST TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE FAR SW.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARMEST DAY IN A WHILE AS WARM SECTOR PUSHES INTO SRN WI...WITH 925
MB TEMPS OF 17C TO 18C MOVING INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S....TAPERING OFF TO THE UPPER 60S NORTH WITH
LOWER 925 MB TEMPS AND MORE CLOUDS. IF THICKER CLOUDS LINGER IN THE
SOUTH...COULD LOWER HIGH TEMPS MORE THAN EXPECTED. DIFFERING TIMING
AND CONFIGURATION OF APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONT BRINGS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LIKELY. SLOWER MODELS
KEEP LOW BLENDED POPS OVER THE CWA ALL DAY TUESDAY...BUT LOOKS AS IF
PCPN WILL BE GONE BY 18Z TUE. DRY WEDNESDAY...THEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ALONG IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BRINGS LOW POPS BACK WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXITING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AMPLIFYING RIDGE KEEPS
DRY WEATHER FOR END OF WEEK...BUT COOL TEMPS IN NW FLOW.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LATE OCTOBER SUN STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE
STRATUS DECK. WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG AHEAD OF AND
WITHIN TROUGH AXIS. SREF CIG/VSBY TRENDS THIS PRETTY WELL. ANY
PRECIP WOULD BE SPOTTY DRIZZLE. TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY WITH
MAIN STORY BEING SOME GUSTY WNW WINDS.

MARINE...WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
HAVE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO HAVE HOISTED A
SMALL CRAFT FOR SATURDAY FROM 15-22Z. WITH THE WINDS BEING OFFSHORE
EXPECT THE HIGHER WAVES TO FOCUS MORE TOWARDS OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM



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