Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 271531 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND A CLEAR NIGHT. TEMPS ON TRACK TO
REACH THE MID TEENS TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND WEST CWA...RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE WIND CHILL AFFECTS.  DESPITE LIGHT SFC WINDS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN FALLING ALL THAT FAST LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOW INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER SFC WINDS...BUT STILL SOME MIXINESS EXPECTED
JUST ABOVE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE DEEPER.  HENCE
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TONIGHT AFTER REBOUNDING INTO
THE TEENS TODAY.  PUFFS OF LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW AT TIMES.  WL REISSUE SPS FOR WIND CHILLS BUT
NO ADVY PLANNED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS. MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH IN EITHER THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE THE SAT
NIGHT MIN TEMPS. THE MIN SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEN WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ARRIVAL OF SNOW.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT... WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IL WITHIN THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SNOW AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO WI. THE ILLINOIS BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 2
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM... MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI EITHER MONDAY NIGHT /GFS/ OR
TUESDAY MORNING /ECMWF/ AND BRING MAINLY SNOW. THERE IS A PERIOD
WHERE 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY... SO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE... BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE USING A CONSENSUS
OF MODEL QPF AND SNOW RATIOS.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT SINCE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLEARS
EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS DURING FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

HIGH RES VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THU AFTN CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED BY ICE.  COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION OF ICE
COVER INTO WESTERN PART OF OPEN WATERS.  NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC


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