Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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601
FXUS63 KMKX 231949
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
249 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The first round of storms continues to move through, driven by some
warm advection, arrival of deeper moisture, and a weak shortwave.
Given these ingredients will continue to push eastward into the
afternoon, expecting these storms will make their way through the
rest of the forecast area through late afternoon.  Another round of
storms is possible this evening into tonight ahead of the main
shortwave. Main threats with the storms into tonight will be very
heavy rainfall and strong winds. Latest Day 1 has all but the
southeast forecast area in a Slight Risk, with a Marginal Risk in
the southeast.

Should be mainly dry Sunday, as the cold front moves through. Looks
like effective boundary will be south of the forecast area by the
time storms fire in the afternoon.

Will be a hot one again Sunday ahead of the front, with higher
dewpoints lingering. Will be cutting a few north and west counties
out of the heat advisory based on temps that were observed today and
what is expected tomorrow. Does not look like these areas will hit
the 4 straight days of 95-100 heat indices.

.LONG TERM...

.MONDAY and TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

By Monday morning, zonal flow will set up in the upper and mid
levels. Cooler air will filter in behind the cold front in the lower
levels as high pressure builds into the region. 925 temperatures
will be in the 21-24C range, suggesting highs in the mid to upper
80s. The lower levels look to be fairly dry through this period.
This will result in dewpoints in the mid 60s, and mostly clear to
partly sunny skies before cloudier skies build in ahead of an
approaching shortwave on Tuesday afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT through SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Beginning Tuesday night, a series of shortwaves embedded in the
zonal flow will pass across the region. The models aren`t especially
well aligned at this time, but it looks like there will be at least
modest forcing for ascent each day through Friday. A more robust
trough will move through Thursday night and Friday. In the lower
levels, a low pressure system will begin to develop across the
northern Great Plains on Wednesday before trekking across the
upper Great Lakes on Thursday night and Friday. Southerly flow
will set up ahead of the low beginning on Wednesday. This will
bring about more moist conditions, which in conjunction with the
upper and mid level forcing, will result in rain chances each day
in the latter half of the week. Instability looks pretty modest on
each day, but given that it is the summertime, cannot rule out
thunder with any showers that do develop.

Broadly cyclonic and moist flow will remain in place through at
least Saturday, so will be extending rain chances into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Outside of thunderstorms, should see mainly VFR conditions through
Sunday. This first round of storms will continue to move through
this afternoon given latest radar and mesoscale model trends.
Another round of storms is then possible this evening into tonight
ahead of the main shortwave. Main threats with the storms into
tonight will be very heavy rainfall and strong winds.

It looks mainly dry then Sunday as the cold front moves through and
high pressure begins to build in behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...

Will see some fog at times into late afternoon, likely until
showers/storms move through.

Southwest to west winds will be gusty from late Sunday morning into
afternoon. May end up needing a small craft advisory...though looks
too borderline to issue at this point.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Sunday for WIZ058-059-063>066-
     068>072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/Sunday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday...BSH



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