Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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586
FXUS63 KMKX 290732
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
232 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High...

Northwest upper flow across southern Wisconsin with a ridge
across the plains.

High pressure across the upper Great Lakes and Wisconsin.
Quiet weather will continue with light northeast winds.

Forecast soundings show a lot of dry air in the lower levels
although just enough for scattered fair weather cumulus.

The GOES 16 derived Precipitable water product does show some
higher moisture in the far southeast into the kenosha and Walworth
county area. RUC forecast soundings would seem to indicate not
enough saturation for status, but could see some scattered
stratus fractus briefly after sunrise.

With the high across the area tonight, some river valley fog
possible, mainly in the Wisconsin river valley.

Sunday through Tuesday - Confidence...High
Benign northwest mid level flow this period with surface/850 highs
dominating. Pressure gradient will be weak with light winds
throughout the period.

Tuesday night and Wednesday - Confidence...Medium to High
This looks to be the next chance of shra/tsra as a trough starts
to push in from the northwest. Best chance looks to be after
midnight with not much model depicted QPF noted with overall weak
front and lack of mid level forcing.

Wednesday night through Friday - Confidence...Medium
The ECMWF shows a slower solution with respect to the frontal
boundary, not arriving until Wednesday night with cyclogenesis to
our north. This slower and stronger solution shows a better chance
of convection lingering into Wednesday night. Meanwhile the GFS
and GEM have this front to our south with a cooler NE wind regime
that dominates into Friday. However the northwest mid level flow
becomes increasingly cyclonic. 925 temps will be dropping into
the teens celsius.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. There may be some early morning fog in the river valleys
and low spots, but this will readily burn off. Winds will be at or
below 10kts from the northeast.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and waves will continue to slowly diminish early
this morning. The waves will persist at Small Craft Advisory levels
around Racine/Kenosha through 6 am. Lighter winds are expected
through the weekend as high pressure dominates.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for
     LMZ645-646.

&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Hentz
Sunday through Friday...Collar



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