Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 200300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR/U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AREA WILL REACH THE SAULT STE MARIE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 850/700 MB RH INCREASES FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND IS HIGHEST TOWARD THE FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...UNTIL IT SLOWLY DECREASES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT EXPECT MORE STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NORTH AND
EAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR/U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AREA WILL REACH THE SAULT STE MARIE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT MORE STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS
NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD FOND DU LAC
AND SHEBOYGAN.

OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW IFR AND
PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST WI ALONG THE
WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE VORT
MAX SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION AND THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS HIGHEST MLCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG. THE WEATHER IS QUIET ELSEWHERE RIGHT NOW...BUT GIVEN THE
BUBBLY CUMULUS CLOUDS AND UNCAPPED...MOIST ENVIRONMENT...I CANNOT
RULE OUT A RANDOM SHOWER HERE AND THERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST WI
FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING... PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...
POSSIBLY DENSE. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG... SO
JUST DETERMINED PATCHY/AREAS BASED ON FCST TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WITH AVERAGE 1 TO 3 MILE VSBY. STRATUS CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
LIGHT FOG... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY WEATHER WILL STAY QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVENT REMAINING OVER THE PLAINS/LOWER MIDWEST. WITH WEAK FLOW...A
LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
80 NEAR THE LAKE AND MID 80S WELL INLAND. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

HAVE BACKED OFF START OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS INITIALLY FOCUS PCPN TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD STRONGEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC
OMEGA OVER NRN N DAKOTA/NRN MN WITH FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF
STRONGEST LOW-LVL JET AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE.

EVENTUALLY A STRONG LOW-LAYER FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE TO THE WAA AND
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION TO BRING LIKELY
POPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL LIFT
AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET MAX.

WENT WITH CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SW AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BROUGHT BY
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH LOCATION OF WARM FRONT AND TIMING OF SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
LEADS TO ANOTHER BROAD-BRUSH OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS. THE
BLEND DOES HAVE LOWER POPS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH MAY END UP
DRY IF NAM...GEM AND ECMWF VERIFY VERSUS THE WET OUTLIER GFS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH
DEEPENING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...BRINGING A  WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
INTO THE REGION AGAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM WESTERN TROUGH...AND THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH ITSELF AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS... LEADS TO
HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLING MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN SOUTHEAST WI WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY TREK SOUTHEAST LATE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ELSEWHERE BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER...HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT. VSBY
SHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE WITH IFR STRATUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM



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