000
FXUS63 KMKX 151841 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
142 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIP FIRST HALF OF AFTERNOON WITH
SYSTEM HAVING MOVED OUT OF AREA. NEXT SYSTEMM WITH SHORT WAVE OVER
WESTERN IOWA WILL REACH AREAS WEST OF MADISON LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH LIKELY WORDING LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF
MADISON. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRUCK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVERNING...BUT HRRR MODEL SUGGEST SOME BREAKING UP AS IT DOES. IN
ANY CASE...SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING
THEN GRADUALLY DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING UPSTREAM WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL EXPECT
SCT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNON INTO EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN BECOME LESSER IN NUMBERS AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. MAYBE SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WITH THE STORMS.

&&

..PREVIIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT SAT JUNE 15 2013

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

DIMINISHING TREND TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS REMNANTS OF
MCS MOVES INTO DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AWAY FROM FOCUS OF WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION BEHIND MCV THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
CROSSES REGION THIS EVENING.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO RE-FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MOVES
ACROSS SRN WI IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHERE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE LOCATED WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH STRENGTH/LOCATION OF LOW-LEVEL JET. MUCH WILL BE
PREDICATED ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING BEHIND MORNING
PRECIPITATION LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. WESTERN AREAS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO HEAT OUT AND REALIZE 1000-1300 J/KG CAPE ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH 40 KTS OF SHEAR BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SUPPORT DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK. OVERALL FOCUS LOOKS TO
BE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS IN NRN COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DROP OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WHICH
CLEARS EASTERN CWA AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. 925 TEMPS IN THE 20-22C RANGE.
SHORTWAVE OF NOTE SHIFTS WELL EAST WITH BROAD CYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR
FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST AND GO WITH WARM
TEMPS IN THE 80-84 RANGE.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE BASED CAPES FROM THE NAM
BLOSSOM TO OVER 2000 J/KG WITH CIN VALUES OF JUST 56. POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DYNAMICS ALONG WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A
500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE RIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A PASSAGE
IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME. 0-6KM SHEAR DECENT INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...0-1KM SHEAR WEAK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNIMPRESSIVE. SO
THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC ON THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK LOOKS REASONABLE.
CERTAINLY NOT A TEXTBOOK SVR CASE BUT SOME POSITIVE PARAMETERS FOR
SOME CONVECTION ON THE STRONGER SIDE. CWASP VALUES IN THE 60S.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET
CONDITIONS. COOLEST DAY TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS...THEN AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST...GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTH. DIURNALLY DRIVEN LAKE BREEZE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SYNOPTIC FLOW NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE POTENTIAL.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BRING THE NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE RIDES THE UPPER RIDGE AND
SOME WARM ADVECTION NOTED AS WELL. CWASP NUMBERS U60S/L70S ON THE
ECMWF AND L/M 60S FROM THE GFS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

JUST A FEW INSTANCES OF VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS OF DIMINISHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. EASTERN TAF SITES HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE THUNDER THROUGH 15Z WITH DIMINISHING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AT KMSN. VFR CONDITIONS AS PCPN WILL END BY LATE MORNING
WITH PASSAGE OF CONVECTIVE VORT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL TREND WITH THE QUICKER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS
REFLECTED IN GFS MOS AFTER 16/06Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR
UPDATE...KAPELA