575
FXUS63 KMKX 282019
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
319 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat index vales in the 95 to 100 degree range are expected on
  Sunday.

- Thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening,
  along and ahead of a cold front. Gusty winds are possible with
  the strongest storms.

- Turning a little less humid through the middle of next week,
  with a more active weather pattern returning toward the end
  of the week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 319 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Tonight through Sunday night:

Zonal flow aloft continues through tonight across the CONUS. A
few short wave troughs and a sfc front in the Northern
Plains/Southern Canada will move east toward the Great Lakes
Region for Sunday into Monday.

Ongoing showers/storms in the northern plains will move out
ahead of the low heading tonight into Sunday morning. Guidance
has been pretty consistent that these showers will be decaying
as they enter a more stable air mass and there current track
should keep southern Wisconsin dry. Central and Northern
Wisconsin may see some of the remnants through the night.

Southerly winds and WAA is underway and will continue heading
into Sunday. Overnight lows will be fairly warm in the mid to
upper 60s. Areas near the lakeshore are likely to see the
coolest temperatures.

A warm front will pass tomorrow late morning/afternoon then
temperatures and dewpoints will be on the rise across the state.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected with
dewpoints expected to climb in to the upper 60s to low 70s.
Held off on any heat headlines as while it will be very warm and
humid, apparent temperatures should remain below 100. There is
higher confidence on remaining below these thresholds, but will
continue to monitor heading into Sunday afternoon.

There will be a chance for rain and thunderstorms along and
ahead of a passing cold front Sunday late afternoon through
Sunday night. Guidance is all over the place with POPs for
Sunday. Many look to be latching onto some mid level dry air and
letting southern Wisconsin get dry slotted of all things. A
little skeptical of that.... There is large scale lift from an
upper level trough and a sfc frontal boundary moving through.
Southern Wisconsin will be under a very moist and warm airmass
so it shouldn`t take a lot to bring some showers and storms
through. Will have to keep an eye on this since this was such a
big shift from the previous run. Forecast soundings do show some
dry air, but its going to have to overcome a lot to completely
clear out rain.

There will be a chance for a few stronger storms through Sunday
night with the best chances being north and west of Madison. Any
stronger storm that does develop will have gusty winds as the
main hazard. Mid level dry air will limit hail production and
shear will be weaker around 30 kts or less.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 319 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Monday through Saturday:

Monday`s rain chances will largely depend on how quickly the
front moves through Sunday night. The front should be exiting to
the east mid Monday morning which will bring an end to the
thunderstorms. A few showers may linger into Monday afternoon on
the backside, but largely the rain should be ending. The NBM
seems to be lagging behind most of the CAM guidance which means
POPs were fairly high for Monday. While there was a massive
shift in rain potential in the CAMs, didn`t want to put to much
weight on the faster timing and drier conditions just yet. So
did lower POPs across southern Wisconsin, but didn`t remove
them. Timing and development along the cold front will be a big
thing to keep an eye on, but the bright side is Monday
shouldn`t be a wash out day.

Drier conditions will move in Tuesday in the form of slightly
lower dewpoints, but our temperatures may not drop much. This
will hold through Wednesday.

The upper ridge over the west will start to lean over into
southwest Wisconsin Thursday into Independence Day. This puts
us in a favorable position to receive a round or two of
convection, as storms fire upstream and ride the ridge through
central or southern Wisconsin. This may be very similar to this
past week.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 319 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected through the period. There
are some MVFR clouds and light showers that have developed
across northeastern Iowa and are moving southeast into
Wisconsin. Far southwestern Wisconsin will see some light rain
and lower ceilings around 1 to 3 kft for the next couple of
hours. Fair weather cumulus clouds have popped up across the
rest of southern Wisconsin with decks around 3 to 5 kft. The
fair weather clouds will stick around this this evening until
either the lake breeze moved further inland or the sun sets.

The lake breeze has moved inland this afternoon leading to light
southeast winds for eastern terminals and light southwest winds
for inland terminals. The lake breeze will slowly move inland
through this evening. Heading into tonight winds will remain
light out of the south to southeast for all of southern
Wisconsin. Light south to southwest winds will pick back up
early Sunday and increasing slightly Sunday afternoon with gusts
of 15 kts possible.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 319 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Light south to southeast winds are expected as weak high pressure
moves east out of the Great Lakes Region. Winds will increase
slightly late tonight through Sunday as low pressure moves east
from Saskatchewan. As this low moves through the northern Great
Lakes Region Monday, a cold front will move east across the
lake with winds shifting to the west. Showers and some
thunderstorms may accompany the frontal passage. The west winds
should linger into the middle of next week.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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