Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 310205 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST IN NW PORTIONS OF S CENTRAL WI WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DOWN TO 5 TO 9 KTS. EXPECT ENOUGH
STIRRING TO KEEP TEMPS UP AND PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST BUT FEEL
SOME LOW-LYING AREAS COULD SEE THE PATCHY FROST BY SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP NE WINDS UP
OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HOLD LOWS TO BETWEEN 40 AND
44 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES
TO REACH THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER BY 05Z. STILL EXPECT GUSTY NE
WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT EASTERN SITES WITH TIGHT GRADIENT
AROUND SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IN AT 12Z. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE STATE.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL DROP THE GALE WARNING NORTH OF MILWAUKEE WITH THE UPCOMING
NSH ISSUANCE AND REPLACE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM
CDT SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS STILL REACHING CRITERIA SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE
SO WILL LEAVE WARNING CONTINUE THERE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW CRITERIA BY MID-AFTERNOON...BUT
WAVES TAKING A FEW MORE HOURS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BEACHES...

HAVE EXTENDED THE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK UNTIL
4 PM SUNDAY WITH WAVES NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET
UNTIL THEN. DANGEROUS...LIFE-THREATENING SWIM CONDITIONS WILL
THUS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LAKE
MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 CREATING A
HYPOTHERMIA RISK IN 30 TO 60 MINUTES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL NOT BE LIGHT AT THE SURFACE...SO DID NOT GO WITH ANY FROST.
WILL BE CHILLY THOUGH...WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S EXPECTED FOR LOW
TEMPS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THOUGH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN READINGS FROM THIS AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

QUIET...COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GTLAKES.  925H TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
SUNDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO TONIGHT...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER DUE TO CLOSER RIDGE AXIS.  ALLOWED OVERNIGHT TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT TO AGAIN FALL MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH A
FEW SUSCEPTIBLE EASTERN AREAS DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 36-37.  WL HOLD
OFF ON PATCHY LATE NIGHT FROST MENTION AT THIS POINT DUE TO EXPECTED
HIGH CLOUDS AFFECTING SRN WI DURING THE OVERNIGHT FROM UPSTREAM WARM
AIR ADVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING TOWARD LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH BROADSCALE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDING NEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FLATTENING OUT SOMEWHAT AROUND MID-WEEK.  THIS
WILL ALLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AT THIS TIME...SO
THAT BY FRIDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 1.0 INCH.
UPSTREAM BROAD TROFFING OVER WESTERN CONUS WL SEND PIECES OF MID-
LEVEL ENERGY NORTHEAST CONTRIBUTING TO FLATTENING RIDGE.  ECMWF AND
GEM SHOWING A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE REGION IN
THE THU NGT/FRI TIME FRAME IN INCREASING WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.  WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE WL CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOCUSING ON THESE
TWO PERIODS.  INITIAL SURGE OF WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE MAY ALSO
TRIGGER MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION BEGINNING WED NGT.

LATER PERIODS OF GFS MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH LARGE SHIFT WWD OF MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT HAD BEEN AFFECTING ERN CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK.  WL TREND AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION DUE TO AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER WRN CONUS LIKELY TO KEEP THIS ERN SYSTEM MORE
STATIONARY OR WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

INDICATIONS OF A WEAKENING BACKDOOR CDFNT IN THE AREA FOR AT LEAST
THE START OF THE WEEKEND SO FOR NOW...WL CONTINUE LOWER POPS.
WARMER NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO 925H TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AWAY FROM LAKE
MI.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN AND ALONG WITH IMPROVING CIGS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

MARINE...

SEEING A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR RIGHT AT GALE FORCE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
MILWAUKEE AREA SOUTHWARD...SO WILL KEEP GALE WARNING GOING INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES. WAVES
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

BEACHES...

WAVES OF 5 TO 9 FEET WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...SLOWLY
SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUS...LIFE-THREATENING SWIM
CONDITIONS WILL THUS CONTINUE. ADDITIONALLY...LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 CREATING HYPOTHERMIA RISK IN
30 TO 60 MINUTES.  A GOOD EVENING AND NIGHT TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER
AND AWAY FROM BEACHES...BREAKWALLS AND PIERS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ052-060-
     066-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK


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