Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 301648
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1148 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...With low pressure south of WI we are on the
rainy, cloudy and cool north side of this system. Plenty of IFR
ceilings with most vsbys MVFR. Progs take the low to the east and
keep us reinforced in this regime this period. So expect
cigs/vsbys to be fairly consistent. As low tracks more to the east
the winds will turn more from the east to the northeast and
eventually north. Rain coverage decreases into Friday with some
improvement in ceilings as well though enough LLVL RH lingers to
keep the cloud cover locked in place with a chilly NNE wind.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 941 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017)

MARINE...No Change to the Small Craft Advisory. A tight pressure
gradient persists around low pressure centered in Missouri. The
ENE wind regime generating gusts to 20 knots plus and expect some
gusts to possibly reach the 25 to 30 knot range at times. Winds
will start turning more to the NE and N tonight into Friday and
remain gusty with high waves being generated.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Rain will persist through most of the day in the east today, and
will be on and off in the west. Rain chances will continue this
evening into Friday morning, but overall amounts and spatial
coverage will be less for this period.

Mainly IFR ceilings are expected today into Friday morning,
though MVFR ceilings will be possible at times. Visibilities will
bounce around with the rainfall, ranging from 6 miles or better in
light rain down to around 2 miles in moderate rain.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 330 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today and tonight...forecast confidence is high:

Low pressure will slowly move by to the south today and tonight,
bringing continued rain to southern Wisconsin. The current slug of
rain should wind down by mid morning, with less rain rain late
morning into early afternoon. Could see a little snow mix in across
the north early this morning, but most places will stay rain only.
Kept a slight chance of thunder in the southeast this morning per
upstream conditions and model instability.

Models then show another round of steady rain moving in mid to late
afternoon, with the highest amounts occurring in the eastern
forecast area. Rain chances will then hang on during the evening and
overnight hours, though amounts will be less than during the day.

Stuck fairly close to a blend of model 2 meter temps for today and
tonight given the clouds and widespread precip. Highs will be on the
order of 10 degrees below normal today, which will feel even cooler
when you factor in the rain and breezy east winds.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

The air will be gradually drying out from top to bottom on Friday,
so clouds are expected to linger through the day, and there
should be some light drizzle at least in the morning hours. Winds
will continue to be brisk out of the north-northeast, so high
temperatures in southeast WI will only be in the lower 40s. Inland
temps will be in the upper 40s.

SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is high.

Drier air with high pressure building into the region on Saturday
will help to scour out the clouds for a short period of time.
Light winds and some sunshine will allow highs to return to the
50s inland from the lake.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Another upper low will track from the southern Plains through the
mid to lower Mississippi River Valley over the weekend. This upper
trough is expected to phase with a northern stream upper trough
tracking across southern Canada. Southern WI has a decent chance for
light rain Sunday into Sunday night, and perhaps Monday morning.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

yet another upper low is expected to cross the mountains early next
week. Precip with this proposed compact low could spread into
southern WI as early as Tue night. Its slow movement could bring
a decent amount of rain to our area through Thursday night. This
system looks like all rain for southern WI at this time, but if it
shifts south, we will have a chance at snow.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Not much change to the TAF forecast. Look for CIGS to gradually
lower to MVFR through late tonight, then to IFR conditions after 12z
this morning continuing through the remainder of the TAF period. A
windy and wet day is expected today. Winds will be easterly at 15 to
20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Widespread rain will diminish this
afternoon into the evening, though a chance for light rain will
linger overnight into Friday morning.

MARINE...

Gusty winds and higher waves are likely into Friday night as low
pressure moves through the region. See no reason to change the
timing of the current Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...Cronce


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