Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 191028
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
428 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Today through Tuesday...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

A band of moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall still looks fairly
certain over se WI where forecast rainfall totals are still from
1.50-2.00 inches. This is due to a nose of a strong LLJ
intersecting a stationary front, thus producing impressive
frontogenesis and lift from the sfc-700 mb. Isolated to scattered
tstorms will occur at times given marginal elevated Cape and PWs
slightly over one inch. The Flood Watch looks good with quick
rises on creeks and small rivers possible along with the potential
for flooding in the typical low lying areas.

There is some uncertainty with the winter wx portion of the storm.
There may be a fairly sharp gradient in rainfall totals resulting
in less icing toward central WI. Sfc temp forecasts have also
trended warmer reducing the amount of icing. Therefore, shifted
the icing threat north but still with an Ice Storm Warning for
Sauk, Columbia, Marquette, Green Lake and Fond du Lac Counties. A
Winter Wx Advisory for Dodge and Sheboygan Counties.

.LONG TERM...

Tuesday night... Forecast confidence is Medium.

As precip ends from northwest to southeast Tuesday night, there is
a chance that the rain will turn to freezing rain for a couple
hours as the surface temps drop before the dry air arrives. This
would only be a light glaze, if any.

The bigger problem will be the "flash freeze" Tuesday night. Any
standing water will freeze quickly as temps drop into the teens
and lower 20s. The hope is that the steady northerly wind will
allow roads to dry quickly enough so they don`t become icy.

Wednesday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

Precip is no longer expected on Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Instead, the next chance for precip will be Thu afternoon or night
as we get into another warm air advection, vorticity advection,
upper divergence scenario. The ECMWF brings that forcing through
quickly and dries us out by Fri afternoon. The GFS gives us
several rounds of light precip all the way through Sat morning.
Precip type would begin as snow Thu nt into Fri morning, then
transition to rain Fri and back to light snow Fri night into Sat
morning.

Saturday night through Monday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

The next round of rain and snow will arrive Saturday night and end
Sunday with a more pronounced shortwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...A surge of moisture will arrive later this
morning bringing stratus under 1 kft and reduced vsbys of 1-3SM
via light fog. The low cigs and areas of fog will then continue
through tnt-Tue. LLWS will occur at times in se WI tonight through
Tue AM.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and waves will continue to weaken through this
morning. But brisk northeast winds are then expected to develop
north of Port Washington for tnt with waves building to 3 to 5
feet. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for this area for tnt
only.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch from this evening through late Tuesday night for
     WIZ063>066-068>072.

     Ice Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Tuesday
     for WIZ046-047-051.

     Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday for
     WIZ056-057.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Tuesday for WIZ052-058.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday
     for LMZ643.

&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Tuesday through Sunday...Cronce


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