Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 050926
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED
RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN BASE OF SURFACE TROUGH...AND
RESULTANT POTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS NOTED ON 275K SURFACE AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE...DRIVING CURRENT BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS DROPPED VSBYS TO 2 TO 3 MILES AT
TIMES AND IS LEAVING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. LAST
REMNANTS OF THIS BAND FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH SHOULD EXIT EAST OUT OVER
THE LAKE BETWEEN 5 AM AND 530 AM...BUT A FEW SLICK UNTREATED ROADS
WILL GREAT EARLY COMMUTERS.

SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS INDICATE
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK WITH CURRENT TROUGH WILL CLEAR
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL BY SUNRISE...AND PUSH EAST OF SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING IN RIGHT BEHIND.

WARMEST 24-HOUR TEMPERATURES MAY BE OCCURRING NOW...HOWEVER WEAK
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND ENOUGH
SUN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THURSDAY.

.TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TO WESTERN WI BY 00Z...BUT WEAKENS ACROSS THE CWA AS THE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGER FORCING FOCUSES WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA
ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW...AND TO THE SOUTH WITH A
SECOND VORT MAX DIVING THROUGH IOWA INTO IL THAT HELPS DIG THE 500
MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CLOSED CIRCULATION.

WITH THE MORE FOCUSED LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR/MOIST ADVECTION STAYING
TO THE SOUTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLOW TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
WILL HAVE TO OCCUR TO GET LIGHT SNOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE AS WE MAY SEE VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES BUT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE ENOUGH TO MEASURE.

THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF
MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 00Z COOLING
ONLY A FEW DEGREES BY 12Z SATURDAY.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
LIKELY RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SETUP SHOULD BRING SNOW CHANCES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COULD SEE
A MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES SUNDAY. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE 2 DAY
TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT
MODEL OUTPUT. STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM
TO CHANGE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL COOL BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES
MONDAY.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOKING FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST TO EXIT BY 11Z. MVFR
CLOUD DECK IS ERODING/MOVING EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT TROUGH IN A
SERIES BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
BUT CIGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THEN INCREASE AND APPROACH...BUT REMAIN BELOW...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR BRISK WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD
HOLD WINDS JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV


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