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000
FXUS63 KGRB 101807
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
107 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

FORECAST TEMPS TODAY AND PCPN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY THE FOCUS EARLY
THIS WEEK.

TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING RANGING FROM 24 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...TO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO
DOUBT SOME MIXING OF THE WARMER 925 AIR IS OCCURRING IN SOME
PLACES AND IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF THE VERY MILD CONDITIONS IN
STORE FOR TODAY. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH MANY READINGS WELL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY.
LOCATIONS UPSTREAM OVER SOUTH DAKOTA REACHED HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S NEAR THE FROPA BUT ALSO LESS SNOWPACK THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED A FEW OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL WARM SPOTS IN THIS AREA
REACHING THE MID 50S...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE IR LOOP EARLY THIS
MORNING INDICATING MORE MARCH SUN AS THE THICKER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NOTED WITH THE
APPROCHING COOL FRONT.

STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
AROUND THE H700 LEVEL COMBINED WITH PERHAPS SOME RRQ UPPER JET
SUPPORT SETS UP OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE. CURRENT CHC POPS
FOR A MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN STILL
REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

AFTER TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MUCH
COLDER AIR AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CONTINUE
THE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS. DID LINGER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE LATE. GREEN BAY AND RHINELANDER WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH ANOTHER SUBZERO MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION WITH RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME MODELS
HAVE SATURATION ISSUES...BUT A SMALL POP IS WARRANTED FOR NOW UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE PRECIPITATION COULD END SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET AS WELL.

MUCH MILDER AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND...IT APPEARS WESTERN RIDGE WILL BUILD WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO BELOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TNGT AS MID/HI CLOUDS
INCREASE THRU THE NGT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM IS FCST TO IMPACT THE SRN HALF OF WI ON TUE WITH PCPN TYPE
THE MAIN ISSUE WITH TEMPS BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RESIDING
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. INITIALLY...THE PCPN COULD BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW TUE MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING MORE TO SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR ALOFT WORKS SWD ACROSS THE STATE. DO NOT
KNOW IF LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WL BE ABLE TO COMPLETELY
SATURATE OVER CENTRAL OR EAST-CENTRAL WI...THUS VFR LOW CLOUDS IN
THE 3500-4500 FT RANGE IS POSSIBLE. IF THERE IS A MVFR VSBY TO
OCCUR...IT WOULD BE OVER THE ATW AND MTW TAF SITES ON TUE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PCPN. NRN WI TO REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY BUT WILL
SLOWLY DECLINE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT DUE TO A COOL FRONT
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-WEEK TO SLOW DOWN THE MELTING PROCESS. ANY PROBLEMS
FROM THE RUN OFF SHOULD STILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CLOGGED STORM
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...SOME PONDING IN LOW-LYING
AREAS IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EAST OF THE
FOX RIVER TO THE LAKESHORE.

IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A LONGER DURATION SNOW MELT FOR RUN OFF TO
START IMPACTING STREAMS AND RIVERS. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......AK
HYDROLOGY......TDH