Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 190253
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.UPDATE...SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS HANGING ON AROUND ROCK/WALWORTH
COUNTIES LAST HOUR OR SO. CLOUDS INITIALLY FORMED ALONG LAKE
BREEZE DURING THE AFTN BUT WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE SCT
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LAKE BREEZE
FURTHER WEAKEN.

NEVER THE LESS...LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 5K FEET AND UPSTREAM
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY TRIGGER MORE PATCHY SCT-BKN
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN CWA OVERNIGHT. DROPPED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST. MAY BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
IN LOW AREAS AS DEWPOINTS ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING JUST ABOVE SHALLOW INVERSION
AND DRY AIR MASS JUST ABOVE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP FOG PATCHY AND
SHALLOW. HENCE WL NOT ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BUT WL LIKELY BE
SOME PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO VERY WEAK
FORCING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY...AND SOME LIGHT FOG IN LOW SPOTS. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS
SUGGEST LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE LAKE BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY...LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN COOLER NEAR THE LAKE...WITH LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH ZONAL JET STREAM
WELL NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS AWAY
FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  PREDOMINATE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT TO CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON AN UPWARD TREND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY...MIDDLE 80S MONDAY...AND UPPER
80S TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMEST AND MOST
HUMID DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATUES IN THE LOWER 90S
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN IS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
MID WEEK COULD EASILY PRODUCE 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE AREA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME...PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...DEVELOPING AGAIN BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTH SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE EASTERN SITES UNTIL AROUND 02Z SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SHOULD OVERSPREAD
LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME
DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WINDS GET LIGHT. MAY NEED TO ADD FOG
MENTION IN LATER FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



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