Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 171405
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
905 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory remains intact for northern two
marine zones based on webcams showing extent of fog from Port
Washington to Sheboygan. With some mid clouds moving overhead hard
to latch onto trends at the moment, but will continue to monitor
obs and webcams for whether a southern extension is warranted.
Northeast winds have kicked in for all except the far southern
zone vcnty KNSW3 and that will occur pretty quick. At this time
expect winds and waves to remain below Small Craft criteria.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 656 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017)

UPDATE...

Low clouds and fog have crept in from the north into the
northeast forecast area. It looks like much of this should remain
over Lake Michigan and begin to improve by the time it reaches the
Milwaukee area. Will keep an eye on this though in case a short
Dense Fog Advisory is needed.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Low clouds and fog have crept into the northeast forecast area.
Models are suggesting this will remain close to Lake Michigan and
should improve by the time it reaches the Milwaukee area.
Something to keep an eye on the next couple hours though, as this
could result in a sudden change in conditions if it keeps moving
southward.

Mid level clouds and sprinkles will move though the north half of
the forecast area today, with some sunshine expected south.

Winds will shift quickly to the north/northeast near Michigan this
morning into early afternoon, likely a bit gusty for a time too.
The wind shift will push inland w/sw inland during the afternoon
and early evening.

Less clouds and lighter winds are likely tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 333 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Clouds associated with a shortwave continue to approach from the
west early this morning. It will become mostly cloudy in the north
this morning, with these clouds persisting much of the day. There
will be a better chance for some sunshine in the south. Could see
some sprinkles in the north. Models have a little QPF, but left
pops under 20 percent due to the low level dry air. Upstream
cloud bases are around 9 kft, with the occasional light rain or
drizzle report.

Temps will be a bit tricky today, as high pressure sliding by to
the north will push colder air south, moving in the quickest by
Lake Michigan. Biggest issue is timing the push of cooler air as
it moves sw into the forecast area. Temps will drop quickly to
the 40s in the east this afternoon. Otherwise, temps will be above
normal across much of the forecast area prior to the arrival of
the cooler air in the afternoon.

Should be less clouds tonight with near seasonal low temperatures
expected.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A compact shortwave and associated surface low will move through
northern MN and Upper MI Tue and Tue night. Showers are expected
with the associated cold front. However, forcing will be weakening
as the front gets into southern WI Tue afternoon, so kept a
chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
fcst.

It looks like the surface front might stall over southern WI
during the overnight hours due to the lack of strong forcing. The
surface frontal boundary position is important because it will
determine the high temperatures for Wednesday.

Models show the surface front sliding into northern IL on
Wednesday morning. The models may be slow with this idea since the
cold lake may help to accelerate it. If the front indeed is south
of the WI border by Wed morning, high temperatures will only be in
the 50s.

The entrance region of the upper jet, nose of the low level jet,
and a 500mb shortwave trough will slide into northeast Iowa and
southern WI Wed afternoon along a tight 850mb baroclinic zone.
This forcing should bring a round of showers and isolated,
elevated thunderstorms to the area. There is a good amount of
moisture with this slow-moving system, with over an inch of
accumulation expected through Wednesday night.

Thursday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Rain chances linger through Thu due to the slower upper trough.
Brisk northerly wind will keep temperatures very cool, with highs
only in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Drier air will drop into southern WI in the wake of this system
on Friday. Temperatures will remain cool due to northeast winds.

Saturday and Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A large upper low tracking across the south half of the country
will bring rain chances just into southern WI, but the bulk of the
system is expected to remain to our south. Easterly winds and
mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures cool in the 50s
through the weekend.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Mid level clouds and sprinkles will move though the north half of
the forecast area today, with some sunshine expected south.

Winds will shift quickly to the north/northeast near Michigan late
this morning into early afternoon, likely a bit gusty for a time
too. The wind shift will push inland w/sw inland during the
afternoon and early evening.

Less clouds and lighter winds are likely tonight.

MARINE...

Winds will shift quickly to the north/northeast this morning and
likely be a bit gusty for a time, though winds are expected to
stay below Small Craft Advisory levels.

Gusty south winds could reach advisory criteria on Tuesday, though
the along shore direction makes it a borderline setup given the
cooler lake temps and less mixing. Small Craft Advisory
conditions seem more likely Wed night into Thursday night.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Cronce



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