Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 160050
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
550 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast to lower temperatures as some areas already
passing -10F in eastern Yellowstone County and approaching -20F in
Rosebud County. borsum

&& Clear

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

skies and arctic air mass in place will allow temperatures to
plummet after dark over the central and eastern Plains. Temps as
low as 20 below zero by tomorrow morning with wind chills 15 to 35
below zero. Breezy southwest winds through the Livingston gap and
western foothills could cause some patchy blowing snow tomorrow
until temperatures can warm above freezing. Ridging shifting
eastward will warm temperatures into 30s and low 40s for highs
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Looking at a possible Wind Advisory for the Livingston area
Wednesday night into Thursday as low pressure system moves into
central Canada and gradient tightens. Blowing snow potential is a
little unknown because temperatures will be warm enough to crust
the top layer of snow, but winds gusts 40 to 50 mph look likely.

Next chance for precip and cooler temperatures starts Thursday as
a low pressure system moves into the area. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...


GFS and ECMWF a bite more in line this afternoon with the
evolution of a Pacific trough that moves into the area Thursday
into Friday.

Front moves into the area Thursday night into Friday morning.
Rain/snow line is quite messy as warm nose aloft will promote rain
and perhaps freezing rain/sleet over the eastern Plains. For that
reason a little hard to discern snow accumulations as initial
burst of precip could be mainly rain, with temperatures in the
upper 30s. Along the front, models show some decent instability so
some pockets of convective snow is possible. Front is a quick
hitter and accumulations generally look to be 2 to 4 inches for
this event, but is still very early and models are continuing to
adjust.

Pacific low becomes an open trough as it crosses the Rockies on
Saturday. Cyclonic flow and another low pressure system shifts
into the west coast to begin next week which will trend
temperatures back down and at least keep a slight chance of snow
in the forecast. Walsh


&&

.AVIATION...

Still some low CIGS hanging around LVM this afternoon. Skies will
continue to clear through the evening and overnight.
Southwesterly winds will increase at LVM Tuesday morning. Some
patchy blowing snow is possible during the morning hours at LVM
but not confident enough to make it prevailing at this time. VFR
conditions expected elsewhere through the period. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 906/032 018/039 026/047 027/039 016/029 013/028 010/029
    00/U    00/U    01/B    55/O    31/B    11/B    12/S
LVM 901/037 023/043 032/051 029/038 013/032 014/035 016/033
    00/Q    11/N    12/R    76/O    31/B    22/S    23/S
HDN 912/030 010/037 017/045 023/039 014/029 011/028 010/030
    00/U    00/U    01/B    45/O    31/B    11/B    12/S
MLS 919/021 005/034 017/038 025/038 014/026 007/022 007/023
    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/O    21/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 915/028 008/039 019/043 025/039 017/029 011/027 009/029
    00/U    00/U    00/B    23/O    31/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 924/023 008/038 018/044 024/041 015/029 007/021 004/024
    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/O    21/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 909/033 015/042 021/047 026/036 017/030 014/031 010/031
    00/U    00/U    00/B    25/O    41/B    11/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Chill Advisory in effect until 11 AM MST Tuesday FOR
      ZONES 31>33-36-37.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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