Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 272240 AAA
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
440 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

WE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE PARADISE VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS
IN RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT AS OF LATE AFTERNOON IT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PARADISE VALLEY IN BETWEEN MOUNTAIN RANGES. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

THE WESTERN US RIDGE HAS NOW WORKED WELL INTO THE AREA. A WEAK
DRY FRONT IS MOVING THE EASTERN PART OF MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS ALREADY SHIFTED WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGHER EVEN
THROUGH THE RIDGE IS IN PLACE. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE FLOW
IN THE TERRAIN...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY
WELL ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN AND WILL BE VERY MUCH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARDS 100 DEGREES ON
MONDAY. THE CAVEAT TO REACHING 100 DEGREES IS THE MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO SHOW LESS OF DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE. MORE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY BRING A BIT MORE MOISTURE KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER. GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE IS STILL IN THE UPPER 90S...NOT READY
TO RULE 100 DEGREES OUT YET. AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
RIDGE...RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ON TO THE PLAINS BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN ONLY SLIGHT. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SOLIDIFIED IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THE EXTREME HEAT OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
LESSER DAILY MAX VALUES BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL. 700MB TEMPS WILL HAVE COOLED OFF
ON THE ORDER OF 5C OR MORE FROM THEIR HIGHEST VALUES ON MONDAY.

GFS IS PROGGING A POCKET OF VORTICITY ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE BY WEDS AFTERNOON...THUS ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS
VERY PRESENT. AS A RESULT...NUDGED THE POPS UP EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO
MATCH BORDERING OFFICES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

MIN RHS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT SEEM TO BE
MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE TRANSITION FROM
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE WEATHER TO MORE DRIER AND FIRE WX. SINGER

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILL AREAS. OTHERWISE ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP
THUNDERSTORM NEAR KLVM THIS EVENING. SINGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/096 066/100 067/093 064/090 062/086 060/084 059/084
    11/B    01/U    21/B    11/U    21/B    11/B    11/U
LVM 057/098 056/100 059/093 054/091 053/087 053/083 052/086
    01/B    12/T    32/T    11/B    11/B    22/T    11/U
HDN 062/099 063/101 065/095 064/092 062/088 059/087 058/086
    00/U    11/G    21/B    11/U    21/B    11/B    11/U
MLS 061/095 062/097 066/093 064/088 062/085 059/084 058/083
    00/U    00/U    12/T    21/B    21/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 059/093 061/096 064/091 064/088 062/084 059/083 057/082
    00/U    10/U    12/T    21/B    31/B    11/B    11/U
BHK 058/090 060/093 063/089 060/083 059/082 055/079 054/079
    00/U    10/B    12/T    32/T    31/B    11/B    11/U
SHR 058/091 059/094 062/089 059/087 057/083 055/080 053/080
    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    31/B    22/T    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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