Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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396
FXUS65 KBYZ 251551
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
851 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

.UPDATE...

The current forecast is matching current condition well. The area
of snow associated with the deformation zone continue to move east
across the area as the main trough axis through. This is well
represented in the current PoP grids. Temperature also look to be
tracking well. No changes to the going forecast. Reimer

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...

Deformation zone persists across the region early this morning.
Upstream we have a SW-NE oriented trof axis sliding southeast
toward our CWA. So while we will have instability across the
region today along with some weak forcing, there will be deep
downslope (westerly) flow to counter much of that. This is
especially true from just outside the foothills to around
Billings. So the best chance of snow showers is across the high
country and areas less affected by downslope, which means areas
east of Billings. Lower elevations that do see precipitation
probably will not see anything incur much impact on roads.

By evening we should see some stabilization thanks to some
subsistence behind the trof axis. A few mountain snow showers may
linger over west facing slopes.

For Sunday, another strong trof drops over the Pacific NW and
pushes moisture into western Montana. Model depictions suggest
some orographic snow showers over the Crazies and
Absaroka/Beartooth ranges during the day. The trof begins to
track into southern Idaho by Sunday night which may translate into
enough forcing into our area to get some precipitation out into
the plains. At this time the progs tend to keep most of
precipitation west and north of Billings, so we will keep our
higher PoP`s aligned with this idea for now.

Look for temperatures to be similar to yesterdays with highs in
the upper 20s to mid 30s this weekend. Overnight lows will
generally be in the upper teens and 20s. BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

An upper low deepens and slides into the western CONUS on Monday.
Associated warm frontal zone will bring increased snow chances
northwest of a line from Red Lodge to Billings to Miles City, not
anticipating significant accumulations at this time.

Moisture continues to pour into the Western Mountains through the
period with unsettled northwest flow bringing continued chances
for snow.

As a low develops and pushes eastward over the Dakotas on Tuesday,
northwest flow clears out precip from the foothills and ushers in
gusty winds through the gap areas by Wednesday. Yet another cold
front on Thursday will bring the next decent chance of rain/snow
to the central Plains.

By the weekend, models indicate a very strong low developing over
central Canada with a potent front moving across the northern
Rockies. This set-up would be quite windy, especially from
Livingston northeastward to Harlowton. Walsh

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated to scattered snow showers can be expected through the
day mainly along and east of a KMLS-KSHR line, as well as over the
mountain locations and adjacent foothills. MVFR conditions will
be possible in snow shower activity. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail across the lower elevations today but the mountains
will be obscured at times. Hooley


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032 018/033 019/030 017/032 016/038 023/041 028/052
    3/J 02/J    33/J    22/J    11/N    33/W    11/E
LVM 026 012/028 011/028 012/027 013/034 024/039 027/047
    3/J 13/J    34/J    33/J    22/J    23/W    21/N
HDN 035 018/038 018/034 017/035 016/041 021/042 024/052
    3/J 01/B    22/J    22/J    11/B    33/W    11/B
MLS 036 022/038 020/034 020/035 018/041 022/040 026/048
    3/J 11/B    23/J    22/J    21/B    21/E    11/B
4BQ 035 019/038 019/039 019/038 018/042 021/043 025/053
    4/J 10/B    12/J    22/W    21/B    22/W    11/B
BHK 031 017/034 017/032 016/032 013/034 016/034 021/046
    4/J 21/B    23/J    22/J    21/B    21/E    11/B
SHR 029 010/032 011/032 012/033 011/036 018/039 022/053
    2/J 00/U    12/J    22/J    21/B    33/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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