Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 192114
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
314 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BEGINNING TODAY...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK TODAY...WITH THE COOLING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. EARLY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY HIGH BASED...WITH LITTLE RAIN TO THE GROUND AND POSSIBLE
DRY LIGHTNING...AS WARM AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT 700MB ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
WAVE OF ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO
BRING MORE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BECOME AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS WELL...AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND TROFFING CONTINUES TO DIG IN ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW SEEMS TO SHIFT A BIT WEST...RESULTING IN
A DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. STILL
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT APPEARS
TO BE A BREAK IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
POPS IN PLACE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO STREAM INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT
THURSDAY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR DECLINE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOWERING HIGHS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER LIMITING TEMPS TO MID TO
UPPER 80S. STILL COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY...AS AS
THE REGION BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED UNDER THE TROF...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. AAG


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE
SCREAMING MESSAGE. HOW WET IT BECOMES IS NOT AS CERTAIN BUT AT A
MINIMUM SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BUT THE
CHANCES OF PERSISTENT ORGANIZED RAINFALL IS INCREASING.

BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING EASTERN MONTANA A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL MONTANA BRINGING COOL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS WILL BE A LULL PERIOD IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE DYNAMICS START
WINDING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST GFS SHOWS MUCH MORE ENERGY HANGING BACK THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AND DPROG/DT SHOWS THIS MAY BE A REAL TREND. THIS
PATTERN IS A RAIN MAKER AND POP FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO TREND UPWARD
STRONGLY TONIGHT IF PATTERN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVERTISING A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BUT WILL GET THE
WORD OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES. AT PRESENT TIME FORECASTING 3 DAYS
OF HIGHS LESS THAN 70 DEGREES IN BILLINGS. THIS HAS ONLY HAPPENED
AROUND AUGUST 22 TWO OTHER TIMES...1966 AND 1992. BEING THE LAST
WEEKEND OF SUMMER FOR MANY FOLKS WANT TO MAKE SURE THE CAMPERS AND
OTHER FOLKS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE PREPARED FOR AN EARLY
FALL STORM.

WEATHER EVENT DOES APPEAR TO WIND DOWN ON MONDAY AS SYSTEM EJECTS
FROM THE AREA WITH MORE NORMAL WEATHER RETURNING. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY WEST OF KBIL. GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST CELLS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 0400UTC TONIGHT. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/085 059/078 056/069 052/066 050/069 049/075 054/075
    32/T    45/T    45/T    66/T    33/T    24/T    43/T
LVM 053/082 052/074 048/067 046/064 046/068 045/073 049/072
    34/T    57/T    75/T    66/T    43/T    34/T    43/T
HDN 060/087 056/082 055/073 053/070 052/072 051/077 054/077
    32/T    35/T    45/T    66/T    33/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 064/086 059/083 058/072 054/071 052/070 052/075 056/074
    33/T    25/T    65/T    55/T    32/T    23/T    33/T
4BQ 062/085 058/085 058/076 056/071 053/071 053/075 055/076
    33/T    23/T    54/T    66/T    33/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 059/082 054/081 054/072 055/069 052/067 049/072 052/071
    34/T    34/T    74/T    44/T    32/T    23/T    33/T
SHR 056/084 053/080 052/072 050/068 048/069 049/074 051/074
    33/T    34/T    44/T    66/T    33/T    34/T    43/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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