Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 162138
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
338 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

The storm system that brought very beneficial rains to the area
is quickly departing the region this afternoon. Overnight, we`ll
see skies partly clear out from west to east this evening along
with cool temperatures overnight. With low level moisture at very
high levels tonight, cannot rule out patchy fog in and east of
Billings though some clouds could keep this from happening. West
of Billings, it appears the winds will remain a little higher
(near 10 mph) and from the west which should keep fog from forming
in these regions. While these winds should keep the potential for
frost down in the cooler western zones, some wind sheltered
locations might see some patchy frost. Low temperatures will be
in the 30s.

Slow warm up begins on Sunday as westerly flow aloft moves into
the region. Expect dry conditions and temperatures in the upper
60s across the area. Some fog is possible again overnight Sunday,
but increasing clouds will likely keep things clear at the
surface.

Another system, with a cold front, approaches the region Monday
evening into Tuesday morning. We`re watching this approaching
system for an increase in winds across our western zones and
another shot or low elevation rain, and mountain snow across the
entire area. This could be the first wind event of the season for
our mountain foothill locations such as Livingston, Big Timber,
and Nye. We also expect continued warming as temperatures climb
into the mid to upper 70s. Cold front moves through early Tuesday
which should bring a brief break to the stronger winds. Dobbs

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Overall theme for Tuesday through Saturday is cool with periods
of rain showers and mountain snow showers. Anyone with outdoor
plans in the high country next week should be prepared for the
cold.

Vigorous shortwave should move through on Tuesday behind a surface
cold frontal passage Monday night. The shortwave should produce a
round of rain showers in the lower elevations Tuesday. Cool air
should also move in, lowering 700 mb temperatures below zero and
thus bring snow showers to the mountains.

Weak ridging should then end showers across the lower elevations
for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Mountain snow showers are still
possible. Then for Wednesday night through the end of the week,
upper trough moves over the area again with a chance of rain showers
and mountain snow showers. Best chance for showers over the lower
elevations is Thursday afternoon into Friday morning...though
model differences still exist with the exact placement of
precipitation.

Could have a period of windy conditions in the Livingston area
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning as surface high builds
over southeast Idaho, setting up a strong surface pressure
gradient over our SW CWA.

High temperatures will generally be in the 50s across the lower
elevations and 30s in the mountains Tuesday-Saturday. RMS
&&

.AVIATION...

Overcast and rainy MVFR-LIFR conditions will continue to give way
to some gradual clearing from west to east late today and through
the evening. However, there is a good chance of fog forming due to
all the recent precipitation, mainly in the river valleys and
areas away from the light downslope winds coming off the
mountains tonight. Watch for the possibility of some low stratus
decks and fog at locations such as KMLS, KBHK and even at KBIL
and KSHR after 09Z. BT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/068 045/075 046/055 039/060 041/054 040/052 038/056
    10/B    00/B    46/T    22/W    34/W    43/W    32/W
LVM 031/066 039/068 037/050 034/052 033/049 031/046 029/054
    00/B    01/N    55/T    35/T    44/W    44/W    32/W
HDN 034/069 041/079 044/058 036/064 038/057 037/056 037/059
    10/B    00/B    37/T    22/W    24/W    44/W    32/W
MLS 036/068 043/080 049/060 038/065 039/062 039/060 038/061
    10/B    00/U    35/W    21/B    24/W    43/W    32/W
4BQ 035/069 040/081 047/058 037/066 039/060 038/058 037/061
    10/U    00/U    36/T    41/B    24/W    43/W    32/W
BHK 034/066 040/080 049/061 039/067 040/064 039/060 039/062
    20/U    00/U    24/W    21/N    12/W    43/W    22/W
SHR 030/066 038/078 042/051 031/060 035/053 031/052 033/054
    10/U    00/U    48/T    41/B    34/W    43/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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