Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 150224
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
824 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
FROM WESTERN MONTANA INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL KEEP DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OVERNIGHT AS LEE SIDE TROFING INCREASES...AND
MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE WEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT
INDUCING PRESSURE FALLS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS OUR GAP AREAS AND BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR NOW BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST WINDS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LIVINGSTON- BIG TIMBER- NYE AREA
AS A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION PULLS SOME
STRONGER WINDS DOWN BEHIND IT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY
EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED LOW MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AND CAUSE NW WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY. THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY DOWN INTO
SHERIDAN COUNTY. HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW BOTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
0C UNTIL VERY LATE...ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN HOW FAR AND HOW
FAST THE COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH AND WEST...WHICH MAKES A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST SOLUTION...BY SEVERAL DEGREES AT 850 MB...AND PUSHES THE
COLD AIRMASS INTO THE BEARTOOTH/CRAZY FOOTHILLS SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE LATTER TWO MODELS EVENTUALLY
PUSH THE COLD AIR WESTWARD...SETTING UP AN UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL HAVE TO COMPETE WITH THE EFFECTS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL...I THINK THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW IN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS...I AM JUST
NOT EXACTLY SURE WHEN IT WILL OCCUR SO I OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WEAKEN A BIT AND START TO SHIFT EAST. STC

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENUS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY. ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE ENTIRE REGION. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR DRY WEATHER BUT THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HAS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA BUT HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL FROM RUN TO RUN. WILL LEAN THE
FORECAST TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. WARM AND DRY WEEKEND SETTING UP AS
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WE WILL SEE BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SW WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 40 KTS AT TIMES IN THE
KLVM AREA. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/057 034/040 026/048 031/062 038/064 038/069 041/070
    03/W    66/W    32/W    00/B    20/B    00/U    01/B
LVM 033/054 030/040 026/050 029/058 034/061 035/065 036/065
    06/W    67/W    42/W    02/W    20/B    00/U    02/W
HDN 031/060 033/041 025/050 030/065 036/065 037/070 039/073
    04/W    66/J    32/W    00/B    20/B    00/U    01/B
MLS 031/060 030/040 023/047 028/061 034/062 037/070 041/072
    02/W    55/J    22/W    10/B    20/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 029/060 033/041 023/046 027/064 034/063 036/069 039/071
    01/N    66/W    23/W    10/B    20/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 025/055 027/035 018/042 024/056 031/057 033/067 039/069
    01/B    53/J    22/J    10/B    20/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 026/057 033/040 024/047 026/062 033/062 035/067 037/069
    03/W    65/W    33/W    00/B    20/B    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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