Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 080142
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
642 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO CANCEL THE REMAINING HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN
BAKER AND EKALAKA. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THE WEST WILL SEE THE
OPPOSITE TREND IN WINDS AS LEE SIDE TROFFING DEVELOPS AND 700MB
WARM ADVECTION GETS GAP WINDS GOING OVERNIGHT. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
ANY HIGHLITES WILL BE NEEDED BUT GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH LOOK
PROBABLE FOR LIVINGSTON TO NYE BY SUNRISE. ADJUSTED WINDS FOR THIS
TREND. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR EVENING TRENDS WITH JUST A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT. GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE...AND IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH SLOW WARMING OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA. THERE
STILL REMAINS SOME FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES BUT THESE HAVE BEEN SLACKENING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
HAVE REMAINED BELOW WARNING LEVELS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
ROSEBUD...CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
ROSEBUD...CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE LOWER 50 MPH RANGE ACROSS
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AND THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH
WIND WARNING THROUGH 8 PM. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT WE SHOULD
SEE PERIODS OF SUN AT TIMES. MODELS DON`T SHOW ANY LEE- SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPING SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIND ISSUES BUT IT
STILL MAY BE BREEZY THROUGH THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 40S
EAST TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ELSEWHERE MONDAY WITH 50S WIDESPREAD ON
TUESDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...APPROACHING 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEARING 60...WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND AN ANOMALOUSLY FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF BREEZY DAYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON...AND MOSTLY IN LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS AND
ROUNDUP. STRONGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN
OUR FAVORED GAP AREAS OF LIVINGSTON AND NYE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CRASH INTO IT. THIS SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. STILL
EXPECT WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
HOWEVER. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL CEILING
AROUND FL100. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE
MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO
40KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT INCLUDING THE
KLVM TAF LOCATION. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025/050 034/056 035/061 038/057 036/056 037/058 034/052
    00/N    00/U    00/N    00/N    10/B    11/B    22/W
LVM 028/050 034/055 035/053 034/051 034/051 035/050 033/046
    00/N    00/N    00/N    01/N    11/N    11/N    21/N
HDN 022/050 028/056 029/059 031/055 029/053 029/055 028/051
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 020/044 029/050 028/054 031/050 030/048 030/051 030/049
    00/B    01/B    10/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    21/N
4BQ 021/044 030/053 029/056 030/052 029/051 029/052 030/048
    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/B    11/B    01/U    22/W
BHK 018/040 026/044 024/050 027/045 028/043 026/044 026/045
    00/B    22/W    20/U    01/B    21/B    11/B    21/N
SHR 017/045 028/050 024/057 028/052 028/052 027/053 027/047
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    10/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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