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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 141008
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
408 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

...NEAR TERM INTO THIS AFTERNOON...
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAVE MOVED
OFF INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTAS AND WEAKENED.
CURRENTLY SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A BAND OF SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM GREYBULL WYOMING TO HARDIN TO
HYSHAM. MESOANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL THIS IS
ORGANIZED ALONG A BAND OF PVA BEHIND THE STRONGER PUSH EARLIER IN
THE EVENING. YET ANOTHER PUSH OF PVA IS LOCATED BACK ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO AND IS PRODUCING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING
THE HRRR...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE AND SHIFTING
THEM EASTWARD TOWARD BILLINGS AROUND NOON. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
BE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING GIVEN THE SHALLOW AND
LIMITED CAPE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TODAY WILL ALSO BE A WELL
MIXED...POST-FRONTAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...HOWEVER...WITH THE WELL MIXED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECT WE
WILL OUTPERFORM GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. THUS
INCREASED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

...TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT TO SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
THE LOW EJECTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX GOING INTO TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE MIXED WINDS
DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY LIGHTS WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SATURDAY WILL BRING
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE LACKLUSTER MIXING...EXPECT TO SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THANKS TO 700MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +3 TO +7 C ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND
LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL JUNE NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

RIDGING MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR
DRY CONDITIONS INITIALLY BUT ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOSTERS MIXING WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY. BIG QUESTION IS THE BALANCE BETWEEN DOWNSLOPING AND
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS DEPTH OF RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE TRIED TO
WARM UP WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE. UPPER LEVEL EVOLVES OVER WESTERN
MONTANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES SO INCREASED
CHANCES OF THUNDER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. PATTERN
IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS WAY TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO BEGIN RAISING
AWARENESS. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING TOWARDS EVENING. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 070 045/077 049/079 052/080 055/085 052/084 052/071
    3/T 10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 065 040/077 042/079 045/081 046/084 049/081 048/068
    4/T 10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    22/T
HDN 073 045/078 049/080 051/080 056/088 052/088 053/073
    3/T 00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
MLS 073 049/077 052/079 053/078 055/084 057/085 055/075
    2/T 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 074 046/077 049/080 051/079 055/087 055/087 055/076
    1/B 00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
BHK 070 046/074 048/075 050/075 054/080 058/080 053/074
    2/T 00/U    11/U    11/U    22/T    21/U    12/T
SHR 070 043/076 047/078 049/079 053/086 050/088 050/073
    1/B 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS