Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
FXUS65 KBYZ 200332
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
932 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Shower activity has come to an end as we begin to see height
rises and warming aloft from the west. Fog has indeed formed at
Baker and have added this to the wx grids for Fallon County
tonight. Still looks like some 925-850mb drying with onset of SW-W
winds later tonight, so the fog may not survive through sunrise
tomorrow. We are not seeing lee side pressure falls yet but this
will begin in a few hours as Pacific NW ridge axis shifts slowly
east. There is some energy dropping out of southern Saskatchewan
toward the northern plains in the NW flow aloft, and this may
hold back the onset of gap winds in our west just a bit. With
this in mind have cooled expected low temps a little in spots,
especially in our east. JKL
.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...
Scattered showers (and mountain snow showers) are occurring over
south central Montana and north central Wyoming this afternoon.
These showers can produce briefly heavy rain and small hail.
Shower activity should diminish shortly after sunset, with the
loss of solar heating.
Upper-level ridging builds in tonight, which should help to clear
skies. The clear skies should help low temperatures get to the
lower to middle 30s across the lower elevations. Surface high
pressure builds over E ID/W WY late tonight, increasing the
surface pressure gradient over our southwestern zones. This
strengthened gradient should produce gusty winds in the
Livingston-Nye corridor late tonight into Friday, but it looks
weak enough that wind gusts should stay below advisory criteria
(58 mph). The strongest winds should occur during the day Thursday
into Thursday evening.
The dry theme that begins tonight should continue through much of
Thursday. High temperatures Thursday should rebound to the upper
50s to near 60 across the lower elevations. Some weak disturbances
are then progged to quickly move across southern MT Thursday
night, so am keeping slight chance PoPs for central and northern
areas. These disturbances should be out of the area by Friday
morning, allowing for a dry Friday. High temperatures should be a
bit higher than Thursday`s readings, in the lower to middle 60s
over the lower elevations.
Disturbances then look to bring another small chance of showers
to the northwestern sections of the CWA, i.e. near Harlowton,
Friday night. Have continued slight chance PoPs for these areas.
.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...
The trend for the extended will see above normal temperatures
from Saturday through most of next week as a ridge of high
pressure takes hold over the area. A weak disturbance should cross
northern Montana on Saturday afternoon but precipitation chances
look to stay north of a Baker-Billings-Livingston line. An upper
level low will move into the northeastern Pacific Ocean at the
beginning of the week, which will further reinforce the drier and
warmer conditions for Monday. Expect mostly dry conditions for the
weekend and on Monday with temperatures in the lower 60s.
The weather pattern will begin to change from Monday evening
onwards as weak impulses of energy rotate northeast around the
upper level low centered to our west. Exact timing and placement
of showers is uncertain at this time but I kept a chance for rain
in the forecast from Tuesday through Thursday as most of the
global models indicate unsettled conditions moving into the
region these days. Conditions will cool slightly as well with
temps moving back into the 50s. Dobbs
VFR conditions are expected through the night and into Thursday.
Patchy fog will again be possible over eastern routes...including
KBHK and KMLS.
Southwest wind will increase in the KLVM vicinity after 10Z with
gusts reaching 40-50 KTS at times on Thursday. Breezy conditions
will also extend across the region Thursday...with gusts of 20-30
KTS in most areas...including KMLS and KBIL. AAG
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
BIL 035/059 043/065 042/063 040/062 043/063 042/059 040/055
00/B 20/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 12/W
LVM 032/057 041/064 039/061 037/063 040/062 039/058 038/053
01/N 20/N 21/B 11/B 12/W 11/N 22/W
HDN 031/061 040/067 039/066 039/064 041/065 040/062 037/056
00/B 20/B 11/B 10/B 11/B 11/B 12/W
MLS 034/060 042/064 040/064 039/062 040/062 042/061 038/056
10/U 21/B 11/U 10/U 01/B 11/B 12/W
4BQ 032/060 039/065 038/068 038/065 040/068 041/064 039/058
10/U 11/B 00/U 00/B 01/B 11/B 12/W
BHK 030/057 038/062 037/063 035/058 037/061 039/060 036/056
10/U 11/B 00/U 00/B 01/B 11/B 22/W
SHR 027/059 036/065 036/066 035/065 039/066 039/061 035/055
00/U 10/U 00/U 10/B 01/B 11/B 12/W