Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 122147
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
347 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE 1037MB SURFACE HIGH THAT HELPED BRING THE COLD
TEMPERATURES THE PAST 36 HOURS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF ANOTHER FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM
CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THIS MORNING BUT STILL QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT OF CLEAR SKIES AND SOME SNOW
COVER REMAINING AROUND THE SHERIDAN AREA...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD OF 27 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE...OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE RECORDS. THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. BESIDES THE WIND SHIFT...THE ONLY AFFECT THE FRONT WILL
HAVE IS TO BRING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST SATURDAY THEN
EASTERLY SUNDAY HINDERING ANY RAPID WARM UP. BUT GIVEN PLENTY OF
SEPTEMBER SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S BOTH DAYS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODEL CONSENSUS WAS PRETTY GOOD THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID WEEK. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AND THUS A LITTLE WARMER. WHICHEVER MODEL
YOU PICK THOUGH WOULD STILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY AND THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE THE WARMEST DAY IN A PRE FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SOME
COOLING FRIDAY. HEIGHTS LOWER FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC THROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS
DO BRING THE TROUGH THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME...BUT THE GFS WAS
DEEPER WITH IT...AND HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. KEPT
POPS LOW...BUT THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK. TWH

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY...SO
JUST A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED
LEADING TO VFR FLYING WEATHER. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/060 040/063 042/071 047/079 051/082 053/082 052/076
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B
LVM 030/062 033/066 036/073 043/080 048/082 050/081 048/073
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 036/063 040/065 040/073 047/080 052/083 054/084 053/078
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B
MLS 038/061 040/064 041/071 046/078 051/082 054/083 055/078
    00/U    10/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B
4BQ 036/061 041/063 040/071 046/079 050/083 053/085 053/079
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B
BHK 036/058 036/060 037/067 044/075 047/078 052/080 052/076
    00/U    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/W
SHR 029/059 036/064 039/071 044/079 047/083 051/083 050/078
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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