Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 170245
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
745 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

.UPDATE...

Winds still gusting in the lower 60 mph range at 730pm from
Livingston to Nye. Pressure pattern supports another few hours of
this activity before pressure rises build in from the west.
Extended wind advisory out through midnight to cover this.
Chambers

&&

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Model ensembles show relatively narrow spreads through much of the
extended period, thus indicating average or better agreement.
Above normal temperatures and periods of rain/snow showers (mainly
Sunday night) can be expected with some Pacific short wave energy
moving across our region.

The main impact period still appears to be latter part of
Wednesday through Friday as an upper low tracks through the
central Rockies. The progged track would allow for colder air to
infiltrate our region and combine with plenty of Pacific moisture
to produce a winter storm across southern Montana and northern
Wyoming. Details will likely vary in the coming days, but at this
time the Northeast BigHorns and Sheridan County, as well as the SE
corner of Montana look the most susceptible to a high impact
event as confirmed by CIPS extended analogs. So based on basic
pattern recognition and unusually good similarity this far out between
the ECMWF and GFS, it seems prudent to nudge PoP`s up and perhaps
lower temps a few degrees for this time frame. BT

&&

.AVIATION...


SW winds will remain strong along the western foothills with
gusts of 35-50 kts at KLVM through this evening, but gradually
diminishing to 30-40 kts overnight. A Pacific disturbance will
bring a few showers to lower elevations tonight, but flight
conditions will remain VFR. Mountains may occasionally be
obscured in snow showers tonight. BT/STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/053 031/050 036/056 035/055 037/059 033/045 026/034
    21/N    01/E    11/B    31/B    02/W    22/W    46/S
LVM 034/049 026/050 035/054 031/049 037/052 027/042 022/033
    22/W    02/W    12/W    21/B    23/W    24/W    45/S
HDN 032/052 027/049 029/054 030/053 030/056 028/044 023/036
    21/U    01/E    11/B    41/B    01/B    22/W    46/S
MLS 033/049 028/047 029/051 032/050 031/052 030/045 025/035
    22/W    00/B    00/B    31/B    01/B    20/B    35/S
4BQ 033/053 028/051 032/056 033/053 031/058 032/047 026/034
    12/J    00/B    00/B    21/B    00/B    10/B    56/S
BHK 033/047 026/046 030/052 033/049 031/052 030/045 024/032
    12/W    00/B    00/B    22/W    01/B    10/B    35/S
SHR 030/050 025/051 030/055 029/053 031/059 028/046 022/034
    21/B    11/B    00/B    21/B    00/B    12/W    66/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until midnight MST tonight FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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