Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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881
FXUS65 KBYZ 200329
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
929 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...

Clear to mostly clear skies will prevail across the forecast area
tonight. Overnight lows will be mild with most areas at or
slightly above normal in the 50s and lower 60s west of Billings
with middle 60s across the east. No updates this evening. Hooley

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

A shortwave approaches from the west tomorrow morning. Ahead of
it, a surface front will push through central and eastern Montana
during the afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon
over the eastern Plains. Model soundings indicate strong to severe
winds and hail as the primary threats with elevated bases around
9-10 kft, 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE, and 30 to 40 kts of bulk shear.
These storms linger in the east through the evening before
pushing into the Dakotas. Increased winds Thurs afternoon and Fri
behind the front along with humidity values in teens could cause
some enhanced fire behavior on any existing wild fires.
Temperatures will be at their highest point all week tomorrow
with many locations getting close to the century mark. Behind the
front temperatures back off a few degrees only reaching into the
low 90s Friday. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Saturday, ridging builds back into the area. This will suppress
any activity across the area. This will persist through the day
on Monday. Monday night into Tuesday will see a low pressure
system move through central Alberta and Saskatchewan shifting the
ridge axis to the east some. This will lead to the area being in
southwesterly flow. As a weak cold front moves through overnight
Monday, much of the area will see chance PoPs. Going through the
remainder of the forecast we remain in southwesterly flow with
occasional afternoon convection off the mountains. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail tonight and tomorrow. Some thunderstorms are
possible tomorrow afternoon, mainly from KMLS east. Some of these
storms could be strong with gusty winds. Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/098 064/092 060/089 061/093 064/095 064/091 064/091
    01/U    10/U    00/U    10/U    11/U    21/B    22/T
LVM 054/094 054/089 050/087 051/091 054/092 055/089 054/088
    01/U    10/U    01/U    10/U    01/U    21/U    22/T
HDN 063/101 064/094 058/091 059/095 061/098 063/094 062/094
    02/T    20/U    00/U    10/U    11/U    11/B    22/T
MLS 067/101 068/094 061/091 060/094 066/096 066/093 067/095
    04/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/W
4BQ 066/100 067/093 060/090 059/093 064/095 064/093 064/094
    04/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T
BHK 063/096 065/092 057/088 055/089 059/093 061/091 062/092
    02/T    30/U    01/U    00/U    02/T    11/U    12/W
SHR 060/097 061/091 054/089 054/092 056/094 057/092 056/092
    13/T    20/U    00/U    10/U    11/U    21/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Fire Weather Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
      Thursday evening FOR ZONE 117.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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