Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 171013
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
313 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave lifting thru central MT in
southwest flow aloft, with a somewhat deeper moisture plume
extending from the central Rockies thru eastern MT. Lack of
boundary layer moisture and strong downslope winds are preventing
shower activity over our west despite some ascent. To the east,
weak echoes are suggestive of sprinkles or virga per mid level
ceilings, though Miles City did report light rain a few hours ago.
Have kept mention of sprinkles for our east thru around sunrise,
and isolated snow showers over our western mountains, otherwise a
dry day is in store with gusty westerly morning winds as
subsidence spreads in behind aforementioned shortwave. Temps today
may overachieve a bit per the warm morning and increased post-
frontal mixing, so have raised expected highs a bit, looking for
highs mostly in the lower to mid 50s.

Moistening SW flow aloft associated with next Pacific trof moving
into CA will spread some light precipitation to our SW mountains
beginning late this evening. Chance of lower elevation rain
showers and mountain snow will be confined to our far west
Saturday and Saturday night as the CA trof splits and digs toward
Mexico, resulting in weak forcing for our region, with a moisture
plume extending from the Great Basin to western/central MT. Temps
will remain mild Saturday with highs in mid 40s to mid 50s.

JKL

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Not too many changes needed in the extended period. The long term
begins Sunday with a weak disturbance crossing the region in the
southwest flow aloft. A round of rain showers is possible on
Sunday in the Plains, with most of the activity being centered
over the mountains (where precipitation will be snow), and over
eastern Montana. After a brief break on Monday, another round of
Pacific moisture will push into the region overnight Monday into
Tuesday morning. In addition to the rain chances, expect the winds
to increase across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, though
advisory level winds are not anticipated at this time. Temperatures
will be warm through the beginning of the period with
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

Big feature of interest is Wednesday through Friday of next week.
A large area of low pressure will dig southeast over the Western
US. As this feature pushes southeast, it will begin to strengthen
into a winter storm over southern Wyoming on Thursday. Depending
on the track, much of southern Montana and Wyoming could see
another round of snow. There is fairly good agreement across the
deterministic and ensemble models so confidence is higher than
normal with this feature. Details will be hammered out as we get
closer to next week. For this update kept the increase snow
chances in the forecast. Also lowered temperatures slightly.
Dobbs

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the period with winds lessening
through the day. Some mountain obscurations possible in the
morning, but skies will generally becoming mostly clear by
afternoon. Dobbs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 032/052 037/057 035/054 037/058 032/049 028/036
    0/U 01/E    11/B    31/B    02/W    12/R    66/S
LVM 051 028/052 035/053 030/049 037/052 028/044 022/035
    0/N 12/W    13/W    21/B    24/W    23/O    66/S
HDN 053 026/049 029/054 030/052 031/055 028/047 023/035
    0/U 01/B    11/B    31/B    02/W    11/B    66/S
MLS 051 028/047 029/052 033/052 032/055 031/047 026/036
    0/U 00/B    00/B    31/B    02/W    11/B    45/S
4BQ 053 027/053 031/057 034/053 033/059 031/050 027/036
    1/U 00/B    01/B    31/B    00/B    01/B    67/S
BHK 050 026/046 030/053 035/051 032/057 031/047 025/034
    1/N 00/E    00/B    42/W    02/W    11/B    56/S
SHR 052 026/052 029/055 029/053 031/057 027/049 023/032
    0/U 11/B    00/B    31/U    01/B    11/B    77/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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