Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 162200
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A 100KT H3 JET EXISTS OVER MT TODAY.
SHALLOW AND BANDED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING OUR EAST AND
SHERIDAN/BIG HORN COUNTIES...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHT AS MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS STARTING TO DECREASE A BIT BUT GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER
STILL OCCURRING NEAR BAKER...EKALAKA AND SHERIDAN. WEB CAMS NOT
SHOWING MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH VISIBILITY BUT METARS SHOWING
OCCASIONAL OBSTRUCTIONS...SO WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR
BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR EAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS WINDS DECREASE
INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY MIXED
WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN OUR EAST THRU THE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT CANADIAN
CLIPPER WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS OUR EAST HALF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN OUR WEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH HIGHS BACK TO THE LOW 30S TOMORROW AND PERHAPS NEAR
40F ON TUESDAY WITH PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. COLDEST AIR WILL
REMAIN IN OUR EAST IN PROXIMITY TO STRONG NORTHERLY JET. ONE
INTERESTING THING TO NOTE...SNOW COVER AND COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED IN THE BIGHORN BASIN TODAY WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. WEAKER GRADIENT TOMORROW IS SUGGESTIVE OF
CLARKS FORK DRAINAGE INTO BILLINGS...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE OUR TEMPS LOCALLY HINDERED BY THIS. AREAS SUCH AS COLUMBUS...
ABSAROKEE AND EVEN ROUNDUP SHOULD BE WARMER THAN BILLINGS ON
MONDAY.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

ACTIVE BUT NOT DYNAMIC FLOW PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED AS A
WEAKENING MEAN RIDGE AXIS GETS ERODED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WEDNESDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WHICH WILL BRING A COOL DOWN AND SHUT OFF WESTERLY WINDS FOR 1
DAY.

RETREAT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY ALLOWS
WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH A STRONGER DECAYING
DISTURBANCE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES SO SOME
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR WEST WINDS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A
BIGGER TRANSITION COMING ON SATURDAY MODELS HINTING AT A RETURN OF
A LOBE OF POLAR CIRCULATION REDEVELOPING OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS
BLOCKING PATTERN ALLOWS THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SPLIT IN THE
FLOW PATTERN. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS STRONGER DIFFLUENCE
ALLOWING A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS WITH A FRONT ON SUNDAY BUT THIS
FAR OUT ITS A LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE DECREASING EARLY THIS EVENING BUT WILL
REMAIN NEAR 20KTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL 0300UTC. SNOW SHOWERS
EAST OF KBIL WITH CLOUDS AROUND 4KFT WILL PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DOWNVALLEY WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 010/028 019/039 019/035 018/034 022/043 023/042 025/038
    10/U    01/N    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/B    22/W
LVM 006/031 017/036 016/036 019/038 023/043 022/037 022/032
    00/N    01/N    10/B    11/B    11/B    22/J    32/J
HDN 005/027 010/039 016/034 011/032 016/042 018/041 022/039
    20/B    02/W    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/B    23/J
MLS 002/017 007/035 013/024 001/021 009/036 016/036 018/033
    21/B    02/J    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    22/J
4BQ 003/017 003/037 015/028 007/025 011/039 016/038 019/035
    31/B    02/J    21/B    11/B    01/B    11/B    22/J
BHK 000/012 001/032 012/020 901/016 004/034 016/034 015/029
    21/B    02/J    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    12/J
SHR 006/027 008/039 016/034 011/035 015/043 017/040 020/035
    20/U    02/W    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/B    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 31>33-36>38-58.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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