Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260225
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
825 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA NO CHANGES
PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHERLY WINDS
CURRENTLY GUSTING 20 TO 35 MPH BEHIND THIS LINE. AS THE SUN SETS
WILL SEE WINDS DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S WEST WITH 50S EAST BY
SUNRISE. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET AND WARM WEEKEND IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BRING A FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AS
THE LOW SHIFTS EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
BRINGING MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SKIES WILL BE SUNNY BOTH
DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE ONLY CONCERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE FIRE WEATHER.
YESTERDAY`S HOT TEMPERATURES DID HELP TO DRY OUT SOME FUELS...AND
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TODAY...DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
ARE MUCH LOWER. IN ADDITION...WINDS HAVE MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WINDS MIXING OUT AGAIN DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TREASURE...NORTHERN ROSEBUD AND ALL OF CUSTER COUNTY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AFTER TALKING WITH USERS...WILL NOT
EXPAND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING TO ANY OTHER AREA AT THIS
TIME. HOOLEY


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE WEST OF MONTANA AND WYOMING DURING THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUMMER TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO KEEP MAJOR
HEAT WEST OF THE DIVIDE. THIS WILL PROMOTE A GENERAL LOW LEVEL
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90 FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK.

WHEN CONVECTION RETURNS TO THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS IT LOOKS
TO DEPEND ON ROTATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. TREND
OF SHOWING SOME CONVECTION FOR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
SPREADING IT TO THE PLAINS MIDWEEK SEEMS REASONABLE. MADE NO
CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST.

WHILE THE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL NOT IMPROVE THE FUELS
CONDITIONS THE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE ANY EXTREMES WHICH
COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO OR BELOW
20 PERCENT MOST DAYS BUT WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW 20 MPH.
BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING
WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/083 054/086 059/089 061/089 061/090 060/091 062/090
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 044/083 043/086 051/089 053/089 053/089 054/091 055/090
    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 053/086 054/085 057/091 058/091 059/091 059/093 061/092
    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 056/082 055/085 059/088 060/089 061/090 061/091 064/092
    00/N    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    12/T
4BQ 055/084 054/082 056/088 059/088 059/089 059/090 060/091
    00/N    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/U    11/U    12/T
BHK 055/079 051/081 055/084 055/085 056/086 056/087 059/088
    00/N    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    12/T
SHR 052/082 049/085 053/088 055/087 054/087 055/088 057/088
    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    21/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
      30>32.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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