Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 160905
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
305 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...

Moist, zonal flow continues across the Northern Rockies. A weak
shortwave is traversing the area early this morning, producing
some sprinkles to light rain. Later this afternoon another
stronger shortwave will move across southern Montana. This coupled
with the continued influx mid-level moisture, rain chances will
increase. There will be some elevated instability this afternoon,
leading to some isolated thunderstorms, mainly from Billings west.
Models are continuing to show a band of around a quarter to a
half inches of QPF from Livingston, to Billings, and down to
Broadus.

Saturday some weak shortwave ridging will work into the area,
this will see much of the western zones dry out. Some lingering
energy will keep a slight chance of rain through the day, mainly
around Baker. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

A generally quiet weather pattern for the region through the
extended. Mean ridge axis stays just west of the area keeping
northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area holding
temperatures near seasonal levels Sunday into Monday. Warmer air
from the Great Basin slips over the divide briefly on Tuesday
before a trof knocks heights back down for the second half of the
week. Expect a few showers and thunderstorms with the surface
reflection of this upper trof on Tuesday. Kept precipitation
chances mainly in the mountains Wed-Fri, but GFS hinting at a bit
better chances on Thursday and Friday with stronger cyclonic flow
over the region. Will see if other models catch on to this hint or
if flow stays more zonal and downslopish. Temperatures will trend
from the 70s Sunday to the lower 90s Tuesday and back to the 70s
by Thursday.

Hydrology...with the warmer temperatures early next week will
likely see river levels increase as remaining high elevation
snow pack resumes melting after a week long break. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR Ceilings from 5 to 12kft AGL will prevail today with periods
of light rain. Local MVFR conditions in rain are possible, mainly
in the foothills and mountains. Occasional mountain obscuration
can be expected through the day and into this evening. Winds will
increase out of the west to northwest late morning with gusts of
20 to 35kts into the evening hours. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 051/072 049/079 054/085 058/091 058/084 054/078
    3/W 51/B    00/B    11/U    02/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 067 045/068 041/074 046/083 050/087 051/081 046/074
    6/T 71/B    00/B    10/U    02/T    11/U    11/U
HDN 077 052/073 047/080 053/086 056/093 059/085 054/080
    2/W 51/B    00/B    11/U    02/T    20/U    11/U
MLS 079 056/074 048/080 054/085 057/092 062/086 055/081
    2/W 22/T    11/B    00/U    00/B    20/U    22/T
4BQ 078 054/072 047/078 053/084 056/091 059/085 054/080
    2/W 52/W    01/B    00/B    00/B    20/U    11/U
BHK 076 054/071 044/075 048/082 051/088 057/083 051/078
    2/W 25/T    11/B    00/U    01/B    10/U    22/T
SHR 074 049/069 044/076 049/082 052/088 056/083 051/078
    3/W 72/W    01/B    11/U    01/B    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$

weather.gov/billings



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