Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031007
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
307 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS AND EAST
OF BILLINGS. THIS ENERGY AND ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN ON THE
STEEP SIDE TODAY BUT BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO DRYING
AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM...SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE THE
DIURNAL LIGHT SNOW PELLET SHOWERS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR LEE SIDE SFC TROFFING AND INCREASED
WINDS IN THE GAP AREAS TONIGHT. GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SPLITTING NATURE OF PACIFIC TROF AS IT MOVES INLAND AND
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR SW MAY KEEP GUSTS A BIT UNDER 58
MPH...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL END THE GAP FLOW AS WE TRANSITION TO MIXED WINDS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MESSAGING IN WX STORY FOR INCREASED WINDS AT
LIVINGSTON AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF 50+ MPH GUSTS.

PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN OUR
EAST AWAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE. SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAY PER THE PACIFIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CAME WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS THIS WEEKEND.
THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
UP AROUND THE FOOTHILLS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET
UP A GAP FLOW EVENT FROM LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON. WINDS GUST OVER
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS. SATURDAY NIGHT THIS
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A POST FRONT WIND EVENT WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH ACROSS MOST SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THE DIFFERENCES WERE
SMALL...HAVE LEFT WIND SPEEDS ALONE.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THE PRECIP WILL BE STRONG WEST WINDS CREATING STRONG
DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. THIS INFLUENCE WILL
MAINLY BE IN WESTERN ZONES AND COULD PUSH AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY...SO THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY.

FOLLOWING THE TROUGH...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN. WITH CONTINUE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WILL BE WARM. THERE IS
STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. GIVEN THE VERY LARGE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER THAN FORECASTED. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITION WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS AROUND KLVM TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH LIKELY. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 022/041 028/045 032/048 031/043 029/051 033/055
    1/B 01/N    11/N    01/N    21/N    11/N    11/N
LVM 033 023/037 024/039 029/043 027/039 028/046 032/049
    1/N 13/W    31/N    12/W    31/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 037 014/042 025/045 026/048 027/042 022/048 026/052
    1/B 01/E    11/B    01/B    21/N    11/N    11/B
MLS 036 015/041 025/045 029/050 028/041 025/042 027/046
    1/B 02/W    20/B    01/N    41/N    11/N    11/N
4BQ 034 013/040 025/043 025/048 027/039 023/042 026/048
    2/J 02/W    21/B    01/B    31/N    11/N    11/N
BHK 032 011/037 024/041 026/049 027/037 021/037 024/042
    2/J 01/E    21/B    01/N    31/N    11/N    11/N
SHR 031 007/037 021/041 022/047 024/038 021/045 025/051
    2/J 01/E    11/B    03/W    31/N    12/W    11/N

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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