Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 140243
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
843 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH SITUATED OVER E MT THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME E ACROSS THE
AREA BY 12Z. ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS TO MAKE WINDS MORE EASTERLY BY
SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...JET ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING SKY COVER
GRIDS. SAW ONE REPORT OF FOG FROM MIZPAH IN CUSTER COUNTY FROM
THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND SEVERAL DEGREES
OF TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE BASED ON LATEST READINGS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE.

SUN WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND DUE TO
THE JET ENERGY OVER THE AREA. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY WITH WARMER 700MB TEMPERATURES RESULTED IN
LESS STRATO-CU TYPE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY`S WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A GOOD
10 DEGREES OR SO GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AT THIS
TIME. THERE WERE SOME PRETTY DRAMATIC MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES INVOLVE THE PACIFIC TROUGH
PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY
PERIOD...ALONG WITH THE HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE BAJA. THE GFS WAS DEEPER WITH THE
TROUGH AND FASTER WITH THE TROPICAL ENERGY...PULLING IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE GFS WAS WETTER AND
WETTER EARLIER. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. THE ECMWF THEN KEEPS THE PACIFIC TROUGH
OUT WEST...SPLITS IT...AND DROPS THE STRONGEST ENERGY SOUTH INTO
CALIFORNIA WHILE IT SLIDES THE WEAKER NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE ECMWF HAS MADE A PRETTY BIG
CHANGE WITH THIS AND WILL THUS LEAN TOWARD THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN SHAKEN A BIT ON HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS THE
TROUGH ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE POPS IN PLACE
GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THE NEXT FEW
RUNS PAN OUT. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS POTENTIAL QUITE WARM AS WILL
LIKELY BE A PRE-FRONTAL DAY. BUMPED HIGHS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TWH &&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT KBHK AND KMLS WILL TURN EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AND DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/063 043/074 049/081 052/085 055/082 052/073 047/073
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    31/U
LVM 031/065 035/075 042/080 047/085 052/080 047/070 041/071
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    33/T    31/U
HDN 037/065 040/074 046/081 051/085 053/084 051/074 047/074
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    21/U
MLS 037/064 040/073 047/080 050/085 054/085 054/075 049/075
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    21/U
4BQ 039/063 041/072 046/080 049/086 054/086 054/075 048/073
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    21/U
BHK 033/060 037/069 042/075 046/081 050/083 052/073 047/071
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    21/U
SHR 035/065 037/074 044/080 046/084 051/083 051/073 044/071
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    33/T    31/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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