Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 152047
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
247 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...

Zonal flow will persist across the northern Rockies and upper high
plains the next couple days. A series of weak disturbances will
bring some light showers or sprinkles, especially over our western
mountains tonight into Friday. A stronger shortwave will bring a
much better opportunity for showers Friday afternoon and night.
Models have been consistent in this regard, so no major changes to
the forecast today. Instability is expected to be very modest
with lifted indices near zero or positive, but could see some
lightning especially along the foothills as PV slides through.
700mb temps fall to near zero Friday night, so could see some high
elevation snow before the airmass dries. Otherwise, pcpn will
taper off with the shortwave passage late Friday night.

Flow will veer to the NW on Saturday, with a trailing area of PV,
and at least isolated showers especially during the afternoon...
though admittedly the airmass will have turned drier. NW winds
will be gusty on Saturday and have raised speeds some. Should see
30-40 mph gusts, greatest east of Billings. Shower potential and
wind will diminish Saturday night.

Temps will remain seasonable. Expect highs mostly in the 70s
tomorrow, and upper 60s to mid 70s Saturday, the latter being the
post-frontal day.

JKL

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

The extended remains relatively quiet for the most part. Dry
northwest flow takes over Sunday, with upper level ridging
building into the region through Monday. This will result in dry
conditions and a return to above normal temperatures across the
region. Models get a bit out of phase at this point, but generally
point to shortwaves breaking down the ridge and a return to zonal
flow by Tuesday night. At this point, a succession of shortwaves
will cross the region through the remainder of the period,
moderating temperatures and bringing at least slight chances for
precip through the remainder of the period. That said, the
available moisture is low to start and slow to recover through the
period, so chances for any significant development is pretty
limited at this point. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions to prevail today. Mountain and foothill showers
are beginning to develop, with obscurations expected at mountain
tops. Sprinkles or light showers are expected to spread east
across the region through evening. Breezy conditions will impact
much of the area again today, with gusts around 20 kts around KLVM
and gusts of 25-35 kts over eastern routes (including KMLS, KBHK,
K97M). Winds will taper off after dark. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/076 051/072 048/079 054/086 058/088 058/086 055/079
    23/W    52/T    01/B    11/U    11/U    12/W    22/W
LVM 050/068 044/069 039/077 047/083 049/084 050/081 046/076
    25/T    62/T    01/B    11/U    11/U    12/W    22/W
HDN 055/078 052/073 044/080 054/087 057/090 058/087 056/081
    22/W    62/T    01/B    11/U    11/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 057/080 055/073 048/080 054/084 057/089 059/087 057/083
    12/W    22/T    11/B    11/U    10/B    01/U    12/W
4BQ 054/079 053/071 045/078 053/084 057/088 057/086 056/082
    12/W    52/T    10/B    01/B    10/B    01/U    12/W
BHK 052/078 053/070 043/075 049/080 052/085 055/085 053/079
    12/W    23/T    21/U    00/B    00/B    01/U    12/W
SHR 049/076 049/069 043/077 049/083 053/086 053/084 052/079
    12/T    62/T    01/B    11/U    11/U    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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