Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 160336
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
836 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

.UPDATE...

Only adjustment tonight was to increase cloud cover a bit for high
thin cirrus cresting the upper ridge, and to tweak temperatures
for current trends. Wind Advisory for Upper Yellowstone and
Stillwater river valleys remain in effect tonight and have
continued to see gusts to around 60 mph at times in these areas
this evening. Rest of forecast looks good. Chambers

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

Gap winds continue...and are ramping up from a brief lull early
this afternoon. High Wind Advisories have verified with gusts of
59mph just before noon today. Temps continue to climb this
afternoon. Expect to see western zones stay a little warmer
overnight...with continued windy conditions. Did increase
overnight lows slightly for western zones.

Thursday will be mild again, but 700mb temperatures do cool a
touch. Also looks like we should be getting some increasing cloud
cover through the afternoon, as moist southwest flow streams into
western mountains. Therefore, expect to see highs a few degrees
cooler than today. A weak cold front will push through the area
Thursday night...but energy appears a bit fragmented upon crossing
the mountains into western and central zones. Will have low PoPs
Thursday night for this, but will keep PoPs low with strong
downslope flow. Precip should be mainly rain showers or rain snow
mix across the plains...as 850mb temps remain too warm for snow.

The front continues eastward across eastern zones friday morning.
Shortwave ridging will develop behind the front for Friday,
with slightly cooler highs than on Thursday...mainly in the 40s
and 50s. Dry conditions will prevail following lingering morning
precip in the east. AAG

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Current extended forecast looks to be in good shape so no major
changes were made with this issuance. Extended models are in good
agreement through the weekend in keeping storm systems off the
Pacific Northwest coast, as well as well south of our state across
the southwest U.S. A southwest flow aloft will be over the
forecast area Saturday and Sunday with a few weak disturbances
moving across the area. These will generate a few isolated rain or
snow showers across the plains with higher chances over the
mountains. Models diverge quite a bit by Monday continuing into
Wednesday so forecaster confidence is lower with these time
periods. Models bring a large trough onto the west coast but
differ considerably in its organization and movement as it moves
across the Rocky Mountains. The GFS takes it across the northern
Rockies while the ECMWF takes it across the southern Rockies. For
now, will keep a chance of rain and snow showers Monday into
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite mild and well above normal
for the weekend and into early next week before cooler air,
although at this time not cold, arrives by mid next week. Hooley
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight across the area with some
high clouds passing overhead. Gusty southwest winds of 40 to 60
kts will be possible near KLVM and east along the
Beartooth/Absaroka foothills overnight into Thursday. STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/055 035/053 030/050 035/055 034/052 037/055 032/046
    00/N    21/B    01/B    12/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 040/053 033/049 027/049 035/051 030/050 035/049 027/042
    01/N    22/W    02/W    23/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 032/054 032/053 026/049 029/052 027/050 031/054 028/046
    00/B    21/B    01/B    11/B    22/W    21/B    11/B
MLS 029/050 033/049 028/047 027/050 030/048 030/049 030/043
    00/B    12/J    01/B    01/B    22/W    11/N    11/B
4BQ 029/055 031/052 027/051 031/055 031/051 031/054 030/048
    00/U    02/J    00/B    01/B    12/W    11/B    11/B
BHK 030/050 033/047 026/046 030/050 030/046 030/047 031/044
    00/U    02/J    00/B    00/B    12/W    21/B    11/B
SHR 028/057 032/051 025/050 028/053 029/051 032/055 028/045
    00/U    21/B    01/B    01/B    12/W    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM MST Thursday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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