Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 180233
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
833 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Will cancel the RFW as winds have come down and RH`s were rising
this evening. Isolated convection had moved SE of the forecast
area with the accompanying shortwave and cold front, so removed
PoPs from the forecast. Made slight sky/wind adjustments based on
latest trends and new guidance. Also, lowered mins slightly
tonight given 850 mb temperatures will be lower by 12Z Fri. than
they were this morning, and there will be clear skies with light
winds. Arthur

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms were occurring over central and
eastern areas this afternoon as a weak front continued to move
through the region. West to northwest winds behind the front have
been gusting up to 25 mph. With RH values into the teens in many
places, will continue the Red Flag Warning through 9 pm for
central and eastern zones. Haze/smoke from fires over western MT
and the Pac NW has been affecting the area today with westerly
winds aloft. With a westerly flow pattern, we will likely have
haze/smoke persisting east of the Divide. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon across
southeast Montana before diminishing during the evening.

A mainly dry day can be expected on Friday with shortwave ridging
building back over the region. Highs on Friday are expected to be
in the 80s to low 90s with RH values bottoming out in the teens
for most places. While winds are expected to be a bit gusty across
western areas, conditions look to be below RFW criteria at this
time. Will highlite the low RH and gusty winds in the FWF for
western areas. Another dry front will cross the area Saturday
morning causing winds to shift out of the northwest. Winds look to
be strongest across eastern areas with RH values in the teens and
temperatures in the 80s to low 90s for most places. A few
isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Montana
during the afternoon and evening. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

A fairly quiet extended period up until Wed/Thu when northern
stream energy draws monsoonal moisture up from the desert
southwest for increasing thunderstorm chances. Until then a fairly
zonal flow regime develops over the area with some low amplitude
ridging at times. This will keep temperatures near seasonal
averages and limit precipitation chances to mainly diurnal
Mountain convection. A little ripple on Monday may enhance cloud
cover over Montana and northern Wyoming. Will keep an eye on this
through the weekend for any eclipse viewing impacts. Chambers
&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of smoke have been drawn in from the west behind a front
resulting in occasional visibility reductions. Slant range
visibility will be particularly impacted by this smoke through
tonight. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. DLB/Chambers &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/090 060/088 058/085 057/086 058/089 060/089 060/087
    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    13/T
LVM 049/089 051/089 049/086 049/086 049/089 050/088 051/086
    00/U    00/U    10/U    01/U    00/U    00/U    13/T
HDN 055/092 057/090 057/088 056/088 057/091 058/090 059/090
    00/U    00/U    10/U    01/B    00/U    00/U    02/T
MLS 057/090 060/090 060/088 058/088 059/090 060/090 061/090
    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/B    10/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 054/089 058/092 059/090 058/088 057/090 059/089 059/089
    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    20/U    01/U    03/T
BHK 052/087 057/090 056/085 055/085 056/087 057/086 057/086
    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 053/088 054/089 053/088 053/086 052/087 054/087 054/085
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    21/U    02/T    13/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect from noon Friday to 6 AM MDT
      Saturday FOR ZONE 117.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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