Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 252138
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
338 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

FLOW IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE THIS WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOME VIRGA TO LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE WAS ROUNDING THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THIS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN LOW...SO MOST OF
THE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN AS VIRGA OR AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM.

A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...THAT WILL
THEN TRACK ACROSS WYOMING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TOMORROW.
THIS WILL BRING IN SOME BETTER MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS
THE THOUGH A BIT OF EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES WHICH INCREASES MOISTURE SOME. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CAPE
SOME AND THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA TOO. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
THURSDAY...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AS WE TRANSITION
FROM LONGWAVE RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BRITISH
COLOMBIAN LOW SLOWLY EJECTS EASTWARD. WHILE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STAGNANT AFTER SUNDAY...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUGGESTS A DEMISE OF A STRONG RIDGE AND A RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AFTER SATURDAY.

THE LAST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY AROUND THE
RIDGE EARLY FRIDAY GIVING MOST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN INVOLVES FIRE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A DECAYING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO
WILL INDUCE WARMING OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES TO
EASILY REACH THE MID-UPPER 90S IN EASTERN MONTANA. FOR THIS UPDATE
I UPPED THE WINDS SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO OUR NORMAL BLEND AS WE
SHOULD MIX FAIRLY WELL. CURRENTLY THINK WE COULD SEE 15-25MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
FRONTAL TIMING...AND WINDS...WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS
BEFORE ADDING ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS.

FOR SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
BUT ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATED A RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE HELPED BRING GOOD VIS BACK TO THE AREA
TERMINALS. THROUGH THE PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WINDS
WILL CALM TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR AREA TERMINALS AFTER 02Z
TONIGHT. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066/094 064/088 060/089 061/094 061/084 058/085 053/082
    11/B    23/T    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/U
LVM 060/090 056/087 053/088 055/091 053/082 050/081 047/079
    11/B    23/T    32/T    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/B
HDN 066/097 062/092 058/093 060/097 059/088 057/087 053/086
    11/B    13/T    21/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    11/U
MLS 065/097 064/093 061/094 062/099 064/089 060/087 055/087
    11/B    12/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U
4BQ 063/096 062/088 058/092 059/098 061/088 059/087 055/086
    11/B    23/T    11/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 059/093 061/087 057/092 059/097 061/089 057/087 053/084
    00/B    33/T    11/B    11/U    22/T    21/B    11/U
SHR 061/092 057/087 053/089 054/096 055/088 053/087 050/084
    12/T    43/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    21/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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