Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 071025
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
325 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Fri...

Forecast area will remain under anticyclonic flow on the front
side of a high amplitude ridge through Friday. Radar showed
diminishing echoes across the forecast area early this morning.
While observations did not show any snow, web cams in the
mountains did show light snow. The snow was occurring in weak
frontogenesis along a boundary that was moving E across the area.
Kept a low PoP in for snow showers this morning across southern
and eastern portions of the area. Went dry this afternoon as
moisture will be E of the area. Clouds will decrease from W to E,
allowing temperatures to reach the 40s in most areas.

By 00Z tonight, models showed 50 kt winds at 700 mb E of KBIL,
and for tonight through Friday, there were were 50 to 60 kt winds
in the column in the low to mid levels. Looking at Bufkit
soundings for the GFS/WRF showed there were inversions in the
column through the period which will prevent strong winds from
mixing down to the surface. The ADJMAV and LAV were not overly
strong with winds in the E, so had breezy conditions there.
Meanwhile from KBIL W, expect windy conditions due to mixing and
the tight pressure gradient on the leading edge of the surface
high anchored over the western U.S.. Do not expect any high winds
in these areas, but will need to watch challenging areas like Big
Timber and Harlowton for any changes in later model runs. Friday
will be mostly sunny and warmer with highs in the 40s to mid 50s.
Arthur

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Models continue to show a powerful upper ridge to the west that
will dominate our weather for much of the extended period. This
will generally result in above normal daytime temps and some brisk
wind at times. Look for warmest temps in the west and coldest in
the east.

We do have indications of a clipper system to to race across NE
Montana late Sunday into Monday. Models strongly disagreed over
the track of this system yesterday, and if it would affect our
CWA or be too far east. However, they appear to be slowly
trending toward a solution closest to the ECMWF. We feel this
leaves just a chance of precipitation right over the
Montana/Dakota border region Sunday night and Monday.

Models are still hinting at the POSSIBILITY of the upper ridge
sliding a bit west by the latter half of next week, PERHAPS
opening the door to some colder Canadian air and potential
snowfall for us. Until then, we do not foresee any significant
winter weather affecting our CWA. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail over the area today through tonight. There will
be a few mountain obscurations over the Beartooths, Absarokas and
NE Bighorns this morning. Surface winds will gust into the 30s
from KBIL W. Expect LLWS over KMLS and KSHR for much of today and
tonight. Arthur
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046 033/053 030/051 032/053 031/049 033/053 032/046
    1/N 00/N    00/N    00/N    00/B    00/U    01/B
LVM 042 027/048 026/047 027/048 028/047 029/049 029/044
    1/N 00/N    00/N    00/N    00/U    00/U    01/B
HDN 046 027/052 026/051 027/053 027/048 028/053 028/046
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    10/B    00/U    01/B
MLS 042 027/048 024/049 026/050 028/045 027/049 027/043
    1/N 00/B    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    01/B
4BQ 039 029/045 025/049 027/051 028/045 028/052 028/044
    2/J 00/B    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    01/B
BHK 036 023/041 019/045 023/045 025/041 025/047 024/039
    2/J 00/N    00/U    00/U    32/O    00/B    01/N
SHR 043 027/052 028/053 025/054 026/050 027/056 027/046
    2/J 00/U    00/U    00/U    10/B    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.