Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 030119
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
619 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
300MB TROUGH AXIS AND UNUSUAL INSTABILITY HAS LEAD TO ANOTHER
EVENING OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. UPDATED
POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. BRIEF INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY SLICK ROADS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH IMPACT STORM
THAT EXITS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS THAT
IMPACTED FAR SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THAT STORM HAVE DECREASED. OUR REGION IS
LEFT UNDER RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THESE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED...BUT FOR THOSE IMPACTED BY ONE...SOME
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THIS IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. PATTERN BECOMES MORE
WIND FAVORABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...ENHANCING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE
FAVORABLE GAP WINDS AROUND LIVINGSTON WOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW THAT
60 MPH THRESHOLD...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS TO SEE ANY SIGNS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...
WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. THE INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW
COVER WILL WARM TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED EURO AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT... WHICH CLEARS THE REGION BY FRI
AFTERNOON... LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA DRY UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. RECENT RUNS SUGGEST A DRYING
TREND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE... BUT LEAVING SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE MTNS AND SLIGHT POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER RUNS. GFS STILL HINTS AT QPF FAR OUT INTO THE
PLAINS LATE INTO THE PERIOD WITHIN THE N-NW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND HAVE THUS MADE
EFFORTS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS SCENARIO FOR POPS AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SAT PRODUCING
STRONG GAP FLOW AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE BIG TIMBER/HARLOWTON
AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL ONCE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REORIENTS AND GAP FLOW NEAR LIVINGSTON BEGINS TO DECREASE. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM LATE SAT THROUGH SUN... WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT PASSES.

A GENERAL WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS AND EURO STILL DISAGREE OVER THE PLACEMENT OF COLDER AIR
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. HAVE THUS
GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...AND NORTHERN WYOMING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GILSTAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/035 022/040 027/045 032/048 031/044 027/046 031/052
    21/B    00/N    11/N    01/N    11/N    01/N    21/N
LVM 014/031 021/037 023/039 029/043 027/040 025/044 030/047
    21/N    12/J    31/N    12/W    21/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 017/036 015/042 024/045 026/048 027/043 022/044 025/050
    61/B    00/E    11/B    11/B    12/W    01/N    21/B
MLS 018/036 015/041 026/045 030/050 029/042 023/039 022/044
    21/B    01/E    11/B    11/B    21/N    11/N    11/N
4BQ 017/034 014/040 024/043 025/048 027/041 021/038 022/045
    32/J    01/B    11/B    00/B    11/N    12/J    21/B
BHK 017/032 012/037 024/041 027/049 028/038 019/034 017/040
    32/J    01/B    11/B    01/N    22/J    11/N    11/N
SHR 011/031 008/037 021/041 022/047 024/039 021/041 024/048
    32/J    00/E    21/B    10/B    12/W    12/J    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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