Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 192139
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
339 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

Upper low continues to move away from the area with precipitation
expected to end over eastern zones early this evening. Can`t rule
out a brief shower from Billings southeast into Big Horn and
Sheridan counties through late afternoon with instability behind
the system but these shouldn`t be of any consequence. Otherwise
will see a mostly clear and quiet night across the region. With
clearing skies and the recent rains (up to an inch in some areas)
across SE MT could be some patchy fog overnight there. Dew Points
in the teens upstream hint of a cool night in the 20s and 30s, and
current forecast may be too optimistic to the warm side.

Brief ridging will bring a dry day to the area Thursday with
temperatures in the 60s. Expect increasing clouds through the day
as next system quickly moves into the area.

A wet Friday...Expect precipitation chances to increase quickly
over western areas in the evening hours Thursday as divergence
aloft increases and vorticity center slides south along the spine
of the rockies. Precipitation moves more into central zones
overnight as an enhanced area of QG forcing moves into the area.
This QG forcing will linger over central and western areas through
Friday and into the evening before shifting southeast Friday
night. Precipitation will be maximized west of Rosebud county with
this system, with a quarter to half an inch widespread and more
in the mountains/foothills. 850mb temperatures approach the 0c
range late Thursday night into early Friday for a mix of rain/snow
in the lower elevations and maybe some light accumulations in the
higher hills from west of Billings into the foothills. Mountain
snow could push 8 to 12 inches above 7000 feet with this system,
especially in the Bighorn mountains. If the forecast remains
consistent will need at least an advisory for the Bighorn
mountains from Late Thursday through Friday evening, but still
time to evaluate this further so no highlites with this package.
Chambers

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

The extended forecast still appears to be fairly active after the
weekend with a chance for rain about every other day. Also, there
is better agreement that temperatures could fall below average
next week as cloudy conditions, and better rain chances keep
daytime temperatures in the 50s.

Friday`s rain showers should be clearing the area by Saturday
morning as the disturbance quickly shifts southeast and out of the
region. Behind it conditions will clear up and warm on Saturday
and Sunday with temperatures near 70 on Sunday afternoon as a
ridge of high pressure moves overhead. The next disturbance will
quickly approach the region Sunday night, bringing a cold front
through the region. Bumped rain chances up behind this cold front
as unsettled conditions move in behind the front. A brief break
from the rain is possible on Monday night into Tuesday before
another system moves in Tuesday afternoon. Above normal rain
chances will continue after Tuesday as several disturbances cross
the region. With abundant clouds in place, expect temperatures in
the mid to upper 50s through most of next week. Dobbs
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the TAF
period. Gusty 20 to 30 kt wind gusts will lessen considerably
overnight. With clearing skies, isolated areas of fog are possible
out east in the lower valleys by morning, though confidence is
too low to mention in the TAF. Dobbs
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/063 043/050 039/061 041/067 043/058 039/057 040/058
    21/B    66/R    61/B    01/E    42/W    33/W    32/W
LVM 033/058 038/048 032/060 037/063 037/056 035/056 035/057
    04/T    66/O    41/B    13/W    42/W    34/W    33/W
HDN 036/065 042/055 040/062 039/069 042/059 039/058 039/060
    21/U    46/R    61/B    01/B    33/W    33/W    22/W
MLS 036/063 043/061 042/061 042/068 044/057 038/057 040/059
    20/U    12/R    21/B    00/B    33/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 034/062 041/058 040/061 041/069 044/057 037/056 039/058
    20/U    13/R    31/B    00/B    33/W    23/W    33/W
BHK 033/060 035/060 036/060 036/064 040/054 034/054 035/056
    40/U    01/B    11/B    00/B    33/W    22/W    32/W
SHR 034/061 039/048 037/057 037/065 040/056 037/054 037/055
    22/T    66/R    71/B    01/B    32/W    33/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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