Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 220343
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
943 PM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Pressure rises emerging from north central MT, associated with a
shortwave up in Canada, will bring a shift to northwest winds
across our cwa tonight. This wind shift is a bit later than
previously thought and have tweaked wind grids. Still expecting
some showers to develop in far southeast MT over the next few
hours, in response to a weak mid level shortwave, modest elevated
instability and aforementioned frontal passage. Will sustain low
pops but am skeptical if the instability is sufficient for
thunderstorms. Secondary push of cold advection arrives from the
north on Thursday. Tomorrow looking fairly windy, and dry. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

Slightly cyclonic zonal flow is the basic pattern over our region
today. The air mass is relatively stable and we do not anticipate
much of any precipitation across our CWA in the next 24 hrs. The
one exception to this is a chance of showers over the very SE
corner of Montana as some weak energy in the mid level flow comes
into contact with some favorable ingredients (instability, low
level shear etc). So we have some low PoP`s in the southeast
tonight in this section of our forecast area. The flow aloft
gradually becomes more northwesterly into Friday with some weak
energy tracking through our region out of Canada. This may produce
some sprinkles or light isolated showers over the plains by
Friday afternoon and into the night. Look for notably cooler
conditions Friday under the stronger cyclonic flow. BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Cool weather from Friday should carry into Saturday. Weak
disturbances in northwest flow aloft can produce a few isolated
showers on Saturday. Ridging should build in for Saturday night
through Monday, bringing dry weather to the region. Heights should
lower a bit with disturbances moving through the upper flow from
Monday night through Wednesday. This pattern can produce periods
of scattered showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms from
Monday evening through Wednesday. Timing individual shortwave
troughs and short periods of showers/storms is difficult at this
time due to model disagreement. The models do agree, however, on
a large-scale flow pattern that supports periods of showers and
thunderstorms.

High temperatures across the lower elevations should rise from
near 70 on Saturday to the 70s for Sunday and 80s for Monday-Wednesday.
In the mountains, the weekend should have highs in the 40s and
50s and lows near 30...and then highs should rise to the 60s and
lows to the 40s by the middle of next week. RMS/BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Cold front will
bring increased NW winds on Thursday, with 20-30 kt gusts. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/075 047/071 047/069 046/077 052/086 057/087 056/082
    00/N    01/B    22/W    10/U    00/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 047/072 039/070 039/067 038/076 043/084 049/083 048/078
    00/N    00/U    22/W    10/U    00/U    22/T    22/T
HDN 052/077 045/072 045/071 044/079 050/089 055/089 056/085
    00/N    01/B    22/W    10/U    00/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 053/075 047/071 044/071 046/079 050/088 057/089 058/086
    00/N    02/W    21/B    00/U    00/U    22/T    22/T
4BQ 055/076 046/070 044/069 045/076 048/086 054/088 057/085
    20/N    02/W    22/W    10/U    00/U    22/T    22/T
BHK 051/072 043/068 040/067 041/074 044/084 053/086 054/082
    10/N    02/W    11/B    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T
SHR 051/073 044/068 043/066 041/073 045/083 051/085 052/082
    10/N    00/U    23/W    20/U    00/U    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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