Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240907
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
307 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

CORE OF A 150 KT JET WILL PASS N OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED JET DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO REMAIN N OF THE AREA.
STREAMLINED VORTICITY WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY WITH
SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL REACH THE SW MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN FRINGE OF ZONES THIS
MORNING...THEN PUSH N THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE REWORKED THE POPS A BIT TO HAVE LOW CHANCES
OVER THE W/NW...SHIFTING TO THE NW/N CENTRAL ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON BASED ON THE BEST LOCATIONS OF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/QPF. IN
ADDITION...SOME FRONTOGENESIS WILL LINGER OVER THESE AREAS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WAS FORECAST TO PUSH SE OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. MIXING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

THE MOISTURE WILL PUSH N OUT OF THE FAR NW ZONES TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. KEPT SOME LOW POPS MAINLY
IN THE EVENING OVER THE NW ZONES BASED ON THE DEPICTION OF
MOISTURE IN THE TIME-HEIGHTS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA ON SAT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS.
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SAT
NIGHT AND BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SW MOUNTAINS LATE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAIRLY
FAST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SECOND WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH THE THIRD COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS MOST OF THEM WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE OTHER IMPACT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE IS TO
DRIVE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.

THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THUS INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH COLD
ENOUGH AIR TO WARRANT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE QUICK MOVING
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SOMEWHAT BUT
COULD GET 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE PLAINS WILL PROBABLY COME ON MONDAY AS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE CRUISES THROUGH IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE. DID RAISE POPS FOR
MONDAY AND MAY HAVE TO GET MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS OVER TIME BUT
THE MODELS WERE STILL KEEPING THE PLAINS MAINLY PRECIPITATION
FREE.

THE THIRD SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST COLDEST OF THE THREE
BUT SHOULD GIVE THE MOUNTAINS ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. RAISED POPS FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS TO END THE WEEK AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK UP TOWARD THE LOWER 60S AFTER A WEEK OF
SEASONAL VALUES. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LIVINGSTON WILL DECREASE EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
REPLACE THE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON TO
BILLINGS TO MILES CITY LINE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 041/070 047/061 037/052 030/054 037/058 035/055
    0/B 00/U    03/W    33/W    11/B    13/W    21/B
LVM 063 039/069 041/054 032/046 028/050 034/054 034/054
    2/W 10/N    13/W    33/W    11/B    23/W    22/W
HDN 069 037/073 039/064 035/053 029/055 033/059 033/056
    0/B 00/U    03/W    33/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 068 038/070 041/065 037/051 029/053 033/057 031/053
    0/B 00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
4BQ 068 038/071 043/067 037/051 028/053 032/058 033/054
    0/B 00/U    02/W    42/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
BHK 067 034/065 038/065 036/048 025/047 029/054 029/049
    0/B 00/U    02/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    21/B
SHR 064 037/073 041/066 032/050 025/053 029/059 029/055
    0/B 00/U    02/W    44/W    11/U    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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