Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 281456
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
856 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST...MAINLY TO
ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES BASED ON MORNING TRENDS.
WE ARE HOLDING FORECAST HIGHS A BIT BELOW MOST GUIDANCE BASED ON
THE SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES AND 700-MB TEMPERATURES
THAT DON/T QUITE SUPPORT HIGHS AS WARM AS SOME MODEL OUTPUT WOULD
HAVE US BELIEVE. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

A QUIET SUMMERTIME FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SUPPRESSING THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND BRINGING
SUNNY SKIES. WINDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA AND IN FACT IT MAY BE THE WORSE DAY IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
FOR SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS. SMOKE HAS MANAGED TO CUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
OFF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST WEEK SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES
THAT AMOUNT FROM GUIDANCE TODAY RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOCUS FOR TOMORROW IS ON FIRE WEATHER AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
BRINGING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST PUSHES
A BIT FURTHER INLAND SQUEEZING THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. BUFKIT
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS FROM BILLINGS WEST OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
THIS WIND COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
TO LOWER 100S AND RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS. FURTHER EAST HOT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
BUT THE GUST POTENTIAL IS LOWER SO HAVE LEFT THIS AREA OUT OF THE
WATCH FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT WILL EVALUATE FOR POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR BURNING PLANS ANYWHERE IN THE REGION
SATURDAY SHOULD POSTPONE THOSE PLANS UNTIL MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE WITH THIS ISSUANCE. SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES COOLING
DOWN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS FRONT AS
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH DROP SOUTH OFF
THE B.C. COAST AND HOLD STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NUMEROUS PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL GET EJECTED FROM THE LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS BRING ANOTHER PACIFIC
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL ALSO ADD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH READINGS COOLING
BACK DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

A THICK LAYER OF SMOKE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND THIS MAY
CAUSE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 088 063/097 066/083 054/082 055/086 059/085 054/077
    0/K 00/B    22/T    21/U    11/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 086 057/090 058/080 046/079 047/082 050/082 046/075
    0/K 11/B    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/B    12/T
HDN 089 061/099 066/086 054/085 055/089 057/088 053/080
    0/K 00/U    22/T    21/U    11/B    10/B    11/B
MLS 090 064/100 067/087 057/085 057/090 060/090 057/082
    0/K 00/U    02/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 089 061/099 064/088 057/085 057/089 060/091 056/083
    0/K 00/U    02/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 093 061/097 063/088 056/085 056/088 058/091 056/083
    0/K 00/U    02/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 085 057/095 061/086 051/084 050/087 052/088 051/081
    0/K 00/U    12/T    31/U    11/B    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28-29-34-35-39>42-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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