Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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519
FXUS65 KBYZ 092136
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
236 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY QUIET AS THE WESTERN US RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LEE
SIDE TROUGHING THAT WILL KEEP BRISK WINDS UP AROUND
LIVINGSTON...NYE...AND THE REST OF THE SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS. HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
ELEVATED...BUT SUB ADVISORY.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS WELL. HOWEVER
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND
INTO THE DAKOTAS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS KEEPING THE AREA DRY. HAVE SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN FALLON COUNTY. THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A CHANCE AT SOME SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. REIMER


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...


AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD AS REGION DOMINATED BY A NORTHWEST FLOW.
ONE PERIOD TO WATCH WILL BE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND AGAIN. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE OVERALL PATTERN. GFS IS MORE
AMPLIFIED...WARMER...WINDIER AND DRIER WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FLATTER WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS IN THIS FAST
PATTERN AS WE GET CLOSER...FORECAST LEANED TOWARD THE DRY AND WARM
SIDE.

OVERUNNING ALONG A BACK DOOR FRONT SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN MT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG
IT IN EASTERN MT...SO CONTINUED WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES BUT
NOTHING ORGANIZED. STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE RACES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL OFFER UP THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY INTO EASTERN AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM
DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE A QUICK SHOT WITH WIND
LIKELY THE BIGGER IMPACT BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO SUNDAY FOR
ANOTHER WINDY WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW...40+ GUSTS IN THE FORECAST BUT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. GFS HINTING AT ANOTHER PATTERN OF
STRONG 850 MB WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME PLACES IN SOUTH CENT MT STRUGGLING TO DROP EVEN
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. GUSTY WINDS AROUND KLVM WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-40KTS. FRIEDERS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/065 036/063 035/052 035/055 035/052 036/057 036/056
    00/N    00/B    11/E    12/W    21/N    11/N    11/B
LVM 038/055 036/054 037/052 039/052 033/047 036/051 037/051
    00/N    01/N    21/N    13/W    32/W    21/N    11/B
HDN 032/063 031/062 032/050 030/053 031/051 030/055 031/054
    00/U    00/B    11/E    12/W    31/N    11/N    11/B
MLS 031/053 029/055 030/043 029/048 032/048 033/052 034/053
    00/U    01/B    12/W    22/W    32/W    12/W    11/B
4BQ 032/058 029/058 029/047 027/049 029/048 030/052 030/054
    00/U    01/B    12/W    22/W    32/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 030/049 027/048 027/037 023/041 029/044 029/047 030/049
    00/U    01/E    11/E    22/W    32/W    11/B    11/B
SHR 031/058 029/056 031/050 029/051 028/047 028/052 029/051
    00/U    00/B    11/B    12/W    31/N    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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