Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 140946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
346 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms were occurring over
northwestern areas early this morning, associated with a weak
disturbance and front moving towards the forecast area. As the
front crosses the area today, winds will turn out of the
northwest, and although the front will mainly be dry, cannot rule
out an isolated shower or thunderstorm along it as well. Post
frontal winds could gust in the 20 to 30 mph range for a bit this
morning, but don`t look to correlate with the hottest temps and
lowest RH values of the day. A few thunderstorms are possible over
the mountains this afternoon and evening and across southeast
Montana with the exiting front. Some of the storms in the
southeast could be strong with gusty winds the main threat.

An isolated shower/thunderstorm or two is possible across western
areas again tonight as weak energy rotates around the high in
place over the region. Flow near the surface will be more easterly
on Saturday with a weak disturbance approaching from the west
bringing shower and thunderstorm chances to western areas during
the afternoon and evening. Again, there is potential for gusty
winds if any thunderstorm makes it out onto the lower elevations.
Although a cap looks to be in place across the east, a low level
jet progged to form during the overnight hours may trigger
nocturnal convection as well. The low level jet will likely lead
to gusty ridgetop winds as well as poor RH recoveries across the

High temperatures in the middle 90s to lower 100s can be expected
today, with easterly winds cooling temperatures a few degrees for
Saturday. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Southwesterly upper flow pattern looks to dominate the extended
forecast as ridge is suppressed a bit south of our area.
Disturbances embedded in this flow should help scattered showers
and thunderstorms develop most days Sunday through Thursday. Still
looks like most of the storms should be high-based especially in
the central and western CWA so am expecting little rainfall.
These high-based storms can produce strong gusty winds.

East of Billings, low-level southeasterly flow should develop on
Tuesday and persist through much of the rest of the week. This
flow should pump in additional moisture, allowing for perhaps a
better chance of rainfall from showers and thunderstorms over
southeast Montana.

In terms of temperatures, southeast MT should have one more day
with highs near 100 on Sunday due to some pre-frontal
warming. Otherwise temperatures should be just a bit cooler than
the recent 100 degree readings...with high temperatures generally
expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. RMS



VFR conditions will prevail today. Low level jet over SE MT
with southerly winds of 30 to 40kts 1-2kft AGL should dissipate
after sunrise. Wind shift later this morning to the north but
speeds not significant. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible after 20z over the mountains and foothills including near



    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
BIL 097 067/098 068/095 063/089 063/088 063/089 063/092
    2/T 11/U    13/T    20/U    23/T    22/T    12/T
LVM 095 058/093 060/091 054/088 054/087 053/089 053/089
    1/U 12/T    23/T    21/U    23/T    22/T    12/T
HDN 100 064/100 065/099 061/092 060/092 061/091 061/094
    1/U 11/U    13/T    20/U    23/T    22/T    12/T
MLS 102 068/099 072/101 067/093 065/092 064/088 064/092
    1/G 10/U    13/T    20/U    23/T    32/T    12/T
4BQ 101 065/099 069/101 065/093 063/091 063/089 063/090
    2/T 30/U    12/T    20/U    14/T    32/T    13/T
BHK 102 063/095 065/100 064/092 059/087 059/084 059/088
    2/T 20/U    11/U    31/B    13/T    33/T    12/T
SHR 096 060/096 060/096 059/089 057/090 058/089 057/090
    2/T 31/U    13/T    21/B    22/T    22/T    12/T




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