Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 171544
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT FOR THE MORNING UPDATE PACKAGE WAS TO BUMP
POPS WAY UP IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BAKER
HAS BEEN SNOWING MOST OF THE NIGHT AND IS DOWN TO LESS THAN 2
MILES VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. REPORTS INDICATE ITS VERY LIGHT
WITH ONLY A HALF INCH ACCUMULATION OVER SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SEEMS
TO BE DUE TO SOME ENERGY IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERHAPS AN
UPSLOPE EFFECT INTO THE BAKER AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH HIGHS MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS THEY DEPEND ON
EXTENT OF WESTERLY MIXING WINDS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON MIXING
THROUGH MORNING AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

ANIT-CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING A
LOW CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED MOST
OF THE NIGHT OUT ACROSS THE BAKER AREA. THIS SHOULD END BY
DAYBREAK TODAY AS OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM ARE NOT REPORTING ANY
LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HANG IN
ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. A
WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES
COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE BIG HORN BASIN ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AND SOME OF THIS COLD AIR MAY
DRAIN THROUGH THE CLARKS FORK VALLEY WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE IMMEDIATE BILLINGS AREA A BIT COOLER THAN AREAS FROM LAUREL
WESTWARD. COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EAST
WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS.

LEE-SIDE TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE THIS EVENING AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER
EASTERN IDAHO. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ORIENTATION IS NOT OVERALLFAVORABLE
FOR LIVINGSTON AND THE FOOTHILLS AS IT IS MORE EAST/WEST AS
OPPOSED TO NORTH/SOUTH BUT GIVEN GRADIENT IS SO TIGHT AND GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SEVERAL HOURS OF 30-35KTS WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY. GRADIENT IS ACTUALLY MORE FAVORABLE
FOR BIG TIMBER BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND
LET DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT IT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY WILL
BRING A SLIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCE TO OUR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER DUE
TO A WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ALL LOCATIONS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

GENERAL WARMING TREND REMAINS IN THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY. NO BIG PRECIPITATION EVENTS
SHOWING UP IN THE EXTENDED AND WITH THE WARMING TREND SHOULD SEE
LAST WEEKS SNOW DISAPPEAR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE WEEK.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD BACK THE 40S
FOR A DAY OR TWO AND MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE. SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
SEE THE COLDEST READINGS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MILES CITY AND
BAKER REMAINING IN THE 20S WHILE FURTHER WEST 30S WILL BE COMMON.
A WEST COAST RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE AREA FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH 30S
EAST. A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE FLATTENS THE RIDGE LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO FLOW OVER THE
AREA ON A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND MORE CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS NEXT
WEEKEND. A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING FROM SOUTHERN B.C.
INTO WYOMING WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...THOUGH CONTINUING DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WILL LIMIT
LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL SEE PERIODS OF STRONGER
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
USUAL AREAS FROM NYE TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON SEEING THE
STRONGEST WINDS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST MT TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR KBHK...THOUGH A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
WEST EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
/INCLUDING AT KLVM/ TONIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027 019/039 019/035 020/039 025/044 026/044 028/041
    0/U 01/N    11/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    22/W
LVM 031 017/039 017/036 023/041 026/043 027/040 023/035
    0/N 00/N    00/B    11/N    21/N    12/W    33/J
HDN 025 010/039 016/034 015/036 019/043 022/044 025/042
    0/B 01/N    11/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    22/W
MLS 017 007/036 013/024 007/025 014/039 019/040 024/037
    1/B 01/N    11/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    12/J
4BQ 017 003/037 015/028 010/032 014/041 019/041 024/039
    2/S 02/J    21/B    01/B    11/B    11/B    12/W
BHK 013 001/033 012/020 004/021 009/035 019/038 020/035
    6/S 02/J    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    12/J
SHR 025 010/040 016/034 016/040 017/043 020/042 021/040
    0/U 01/B    11/U    11/B    11/B    11/B    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM MST
      TUESDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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