Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 240004
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
604 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY LITTLE UPDATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DRYING IN OUR EAST
AS WAVE ALOFT SHIFTS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS
WELL AS SHERIDAN COUNTY. NEXT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK INTO SHERIDAN AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. BELIEVE ANY THUNDER WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AS
EARLY CLOUD COVER HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE BETTER THAN WHAT
THE CASE WAS YESTERDAY. COVERAGE IN THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING.

HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE ABOVE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REAMIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL WRAP A
GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO BAKER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS PAINT ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 0.50"
TO JUST OVER AN 1.00" OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WITH CHANCES
LESSENING BY MONDAY.

A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY BUT WITH
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE READINGS WILL MODERATE TO SEASONAL OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON
MONDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEEK AS
WELL AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY WILL BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO A RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST WITH
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE LOW. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL BE AROUND 0.50"-1.0" AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS STILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN A STRONGER AND COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS IN AN EAST TO WEST
FASHION THIS EVENING...TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT AREAS THAT SAW ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAF
LOCATIONS KLVM...KBIL AND KSHR COULD BE IMPACTED BY IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BECOMING PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/062 045/069 049/071 048/070 049/069 047/065 046/069
    54/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 043/060 039/070 045/068 043/065 044/068 042/065 042/067
    43/T    33/T    36/T    64/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 049/072 047/067 045/070
    57/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 047/064 047/068 048/073 049/072 050/070 048/066 044/069
    36/T    54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
4BQ 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 050/069 047/065 043/067
    49/T    65/T    22/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 046/061 045/066 046/070 047/069 048/067 045/063 042/065
    58/T    76/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 045/056 043/064 044/069 045/068 046/068 044/065 042/066
    79/T    64/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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