Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240928
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
328 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GFS AND EC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHILE
THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST IN MOVING THE FRONT
THROUGH BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/EC
SOLUTION OF A LATE AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.

UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. MAIN FORCING WITH THE TROUGH
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AS LOW LEVELS HAVE
MOISTEN UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THE
STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CAPE VALUES OF 3500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +18C FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BREAK THIS
CAP AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING OVER FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES.

GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY
FIRE HIGHLIGHTS TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT FIRE DANGERS OF MODERATE
TO HIGH. RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT HAS ALSO
HELPED. WILL CONTINUE THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC FOR TODAY
AS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

HIGH FALLS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. A DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROG FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURED ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN US.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS SATURDAY...AND APPEARS TO BE COOLEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING RIDGE. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY AS ACTIVITY HAS
ALL PUSHED EAST AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT IS NOT PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA UNTIL SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY INTO MIDWEEK. DID RAISE TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORKWEEK...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. CURRENT PROGGED LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FLOW OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER RUNS...BUT CURRENTLY THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY WAVES SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO FLATTEN
RIDGE OR BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.AAG.

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS
MORNING. LOCALIZED MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM HARLOWTON TO
COLUMBUS TO THE NORTHEAST BIG HORNS AND EAST. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS...WITH LOCALIZED
OBSCURATION OVER THE NORTHEAST BIG HORNS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 097 057/085 057/082 056/084 059/089 061/089 061/090
    2/T 11/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    11/U
LVM 090 047/085 048/082 047/086 050/089 054/089 053/089
    1/N 10/N    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T
HDN 100 055/087 055/083 055/085 057/091 058/091 059/091
    2/T 11/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    11/U
MLS 097 058/085 057/082 057/083 059/088 061/089 061/090
    2/T 21/U    01/N    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 100 057/086 057/082 055/082 057/088 059/088 058/089
    2/T 21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/U
BHK 096 055/084 053/079 052/079 053/084 055/085 056/086
    3/T 21/U    01/N    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 100 053/086 052/081 051/083 053/088 055/087 054/087
    2/T 11/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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