Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 250928
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
328 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

AN UNSETTLED AND COOL PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO. ONE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TODAY AND ANOTHER TAKES
ITS PLACE. THE NEW SYSTEM WILL TAKE A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVER WYOMING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER SOUTHERN
MONTANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE MEAN TROF AXIS AND THUS WILL KEEP
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. BY LATE TONIGHT THE MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH PLAINS MOISTURE INTO EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SHERIDAN TO MILES CITY LINE THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLITE
WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. COOL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND PROVIDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT
TIMES. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

THE SOLUTION IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR THE EXTENDED HAVE BECOME
MORE COMPLICATED. WHILE GENERALLY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SEVERAL TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH...MODELS ARE NOW TRACKING A LOW
BACK OVER MONTANA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. AS A BLOCK
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST PREVENTS THE EARLY WEEK LOW FROM
PROGRESSING EAST...THE ENERGY SPLITS SOME GOING EAST UNDER THE
BLOCKING RIDGE AND THE REST RETROGRADING TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THIS SHIFT IN THE FORECAST SOLUTION AND INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...HAVE GENERALLY LEFT THE
FORECAST AS IS. BLENDED IN THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS...BUT DID NOT DEVIATE FOR THE WHAT WAS INHERITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER..BUT GENERALLY TRENDING UPWARDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. HAVE CONTINUED THE GENERAL CHANCE POPS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE EAST OF KBIL THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE. REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048 036/047 036/048 035/048 035/055 038/057 039/057
    4/O 33/O    45/W    44/W    23/W    33/W    22/W
LVM 053 035/049 032/052 034/048 032/055 034/057 035/057
    6/R 55/O    43/W    34/W    33/W    33/W    33/W
HDN 048 035/047 035/048 033/049 034/055 035/057 036/057
    4/O 34/O    55/W    43/W    23/W    33/W    22/W
MLS 046 034/047 036/046 033/048 033/055 037/057 038/057
    3/O 24/O    56/W    43/W    22/W    23/W    22/W
4BQ 049 035/043 034/045 032/047 032/053 036/055 036/055
    2/O 46/O    56/W    43/W    22/W    33/W    33/W
BHK 043 031/044 033/043 030/045 030/051 033/054 035/055
    4/O 25/O    56/W    43/W    22/W    33/W    32/W
SHR 049 034/043 032/045 031/047 032/053 033/054 034/053
    4/O 66/O    65/W    44/W    33/W    33/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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