Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 121039
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
439 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL MT EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALSO...FOG DEVELOPMENT AS FAR NORTH AS BILLINGS.

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP INTO THIS WEEKEND. SYSTEM FROM
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST WITH MOST
AREAS HAVING CLEARED OUT. STILL SEE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTHERN WY INTO MID MORNING
WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM YESTERDAYS WET SNOW. OTHERWISE...WEAK
RIDGING TODAY BRINGS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW AVERAGE. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY
SATURDAY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONLY THING IT WILL
OFFER IS TO KEEP SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH ANOTHER
DAY OF HIGHS AROUND 60 MOST AREAS. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS
WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY...A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...WHICH WILL BE REINFORED BY A SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY MORNING
COULD BE FAIRLY COOL GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE FORECAST MODELS IS TO DEVELOP
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY MID-WEEK...IN WHICH TROUGHING IS MORE
PRONOUNCED OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS HELPS TO INCREASE THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ADVERTISE
SOME LOW TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE LATEST TREND IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...WOULD EXPECT A FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHER
INTERESTING CONSEQUENCE OF THIS MODEL TREND IS THAT ODILE WOULD
TRACK MORE NORTHWARD...AND COULD END UP REPEATING NORBERT/S TRACK.

CHURCH

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FROM KBIL TO KSHR AND ACROSS FAR SE MONTANA / NE
WYOMING. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FOG FORMATION IS FAIRLY LOW...BUT IF
THE FOG DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CHURCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059 038/060 041/062 041/070 047/080 052/082 054/080
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 062 031/062 033/066 037/074 043/081 046/083 049/079
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B
HDN 061 036/063 040/065 040/073 046/080 051/082 052/083
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 060 037/061 040/063 041/072 046/079 051/082 052/083
    0/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
4BQ 058 036/061 041/063 040/071 046/079 051/082 051/083
    0/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 056 035/059 037/060 038/068 043/075 046/077 048/079
    0/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 052 028/060 036/063 038/072 042/079 046/083 048/082
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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