Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
FXUS65 KBYZ 150228

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
828 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

A cold front has made it through a large part of our forecast
area this evening. This front has allowed winds to drop off quite
a bit at Livingston and Nye as levels were well below wind
advisory criteria. Have cancelled the wind advisory with the
passage of the front. Winds have stayed up a little bit behind the
front over central zones and have raised them a bit for the
update. Winds will subside by late evening as the surface pressure
gradient backs off. Raised PoPs a bit for the weak showers around
behind the front. Models want to keep some semblance of channeled
vorticity going through the night, so adjusted PoPs to keep at
least a slight chance going overnight through central and parts of
the eastern zones. TWH


.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

Cold front moving through west central Montana shifting eastward
and as this pushes the leeside trough off the continental divide
expect to see decreasing winds this evening. High elevation shower
activity continues but temperatures are warm and snowfall is
minimal over the mountains. Downslope is eating away most of the
low level precipitation over the plains but as the cold front
shifts east tonight it will allow a few showers to reach the

Post frontal environment on Saturday will be cooler and still
breezy and there is a window where another round of gap flow winds
will set up around midday but lack of a critical layer at
mountain top and a modest mixing layer should keep winds from
becoming too strong. Break in the moisture stream in the southwest
flow aloft should decrease the number of showers.

Saturday night another wave moves into the area with a cold front
moving through late Saturday night into early Sunday. Shower
activity remains an high elevation issue with downsloping over the
plains. Breezy on Sunday but well mixed so temperatures actually
rebound a few degrees. Bigger concern is Sunday night as a
particularly deep shot of moisture moves towards southwest
Montana. Latest runs indicate this wave may be splitting a bit and
better chance for heavy precipitation over northern Wyoming as
opposed to southern Montana. Borsum

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Not much change to the long term forecast package at this time.
Monday, another impulse approaches from the southwest bringing
a round of showers through the area. Have increased PoP chances
over the foothills toward Billings during the afternoon on Monday
as models have shown better consistency with timing. Precip moves
through with disturbance from southwest to northeast on Monday.
Generally clearer conditions as ridging moves in by mid-week with
temperatures near climo. Walsh



Gusty winds to 40 kts continue this evening...but have begun to
subside at KLVM...and should follow suit in KBIL by
showers push eastward across the area. Reduced flight conditions
are possible with showers...but VFR conditions should prevail. AAG



    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
BIL 046/064 049/066 045/059 040/057 038/053 035/058 041/060
    21/B    21/N    24/W    22/W    22/W    10/U    00/U
LVM 042/060 045/060 041/053 037/053 032/049 035/056 039/058
    42/W    33/W    45/W    22/W    22/W    11/B    01/N
HDN 045/066 046/068 042/062 038/060 036/054 033/060 039/062
    21/B    21/B    13/W    22/W    22/W    11/U    00/U
MLS 046/067 046/068 042/062 040/058 036/053 034/057 039/061
    31/B    11/B    12/W    31/B    12/W    11/U    00/U
4BQ 046/067 047/071 042/064 039/060 036/053 032/060 039/063
    21/B    11/B    12/W    21/B    12/W    11/U    00/U
BHK 044/065 044/068 040/062 038/056 033/051 030/055 036/060
    21/B    11/N    12/W    31/B    11/B    11/U    10/U
SHR 042/065 043/067 039/062 034/059 033/051 030/057 036/062
    21/B    11/B    12/W    12/W    23/W    10/U    00/U




$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.