Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 140328
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
828 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...

Thin high clouds continue to stream over the area out of the
northwest as upper level ridge axis is currently centered over
eastern Washington/Oregon and the Idaho panhandle. Despite
temperatures making it into the 40s and 50s for many places today,
temperatures had already dipped down into the lower 30s across
much of the area this evening. Only update to the forecast this
evening was to lower overnight lows a few degrees across western
areas to match current temperature trends. The rest of the
forecast remains on track and the previous forecast discussion
below. STP

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

High pressure ridging will continue to build across the forecast
area tonight into Wednesday. A somewhat of a blocking pattern will
exist across the northern Rockies as an upper low will be
situated over the Great Lakes and a large trough approaches the
Pacific northwest coast. Heights will be rising, and this combined
with mostly sunny skies Tuesday and Wednesday will result in
continued warming temperatures.

By late Wednesday into Wednesday night, the ridge axis starts to
to shift east in response to the above mentioned trough moving
onto the Pacific Northwest coast. This will allow pressure falls
along the Front Range resulting in lee-side troughing developing
across the forecast area. Strong gusty winds will be possible
Tuesday night and Wednesday but especially Wednesday night into
Thursday through the Upper Yellowstone and Upper Stillwater
Valleys. Wind highlights will most likely be needed by Wednesday
night into Thursday.

Afternoon highs both Tuesday and Wednesday will be about 10 to 15
degrees above normal with readings in the lower to upper 50s with
possibly a 60 degree reading for a few locations Wednesday. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Models are in good agreement for the end of the week into the
early part of the weekend but then diverge quite a bit next Sunday
into Monday. High pressure axis gets shifted east Thursday into
Friday as a Pacific front moves across the forecast area along
with a few weak upper level disturbances. This will bring a chance
for rain and snow showers Thursday night through Friday along
with cooler temperatures by Friday.

Weak flow aloft will be in store Saturday as systems will be well
north and south of the state. Temperatures will drop back
slightly below normal Saturday as an easterly surface flow will
usher in behind Fridays front. Models diverge by Sunday but do
begin to develop a storm somewhere ranging from the four corners
area to the Colorado Front Range. By Monday, differences really
exist with the ECMWF placing an upper low over the western Dakotas
resulting in precip and gusty northwest winds across far eastern
Montana. However, the GFS keeps an open wave across southern
Montana and northern Wyoming. As a result, no changes were made to
this portion of the extended. However, precip chances will return
late Saturday night through Monday. Temperatures will start off
well above normal Thursday with 50s to around 60 degrees for many
locations before cooling back down to normal or slightly below
normal for next weekend into early next week. Hooley

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions through the nighttime period with no aviation
impacts expected. dlb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/053 030/058 036/058 035/050 029/045 033/050 032/047
    00/U    00/N    00/N    22/W    01/B    22/W    22/W
LVM 020/053 032/056 037/054 033/047 026/045 031/049 028/044
    00/U    00/N    00/N    23/W    02/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 019/047 022/054 024/054 030/049 025/044 026/046 027/045
    00/U    00/U    00/U    22/J    01/B    22/W    22/W
MLS 022/046 026/052 028/055 032/047 026/043 028/046 028/042
    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 021/048 025/055 031/058 032/050 027/046 032/052 030/045
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 023/044 024/052 027/055 030/046 027/044 031/048 029/041
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/J    10/B    11/B    23/W
SHR 020/048 022/058 026/058 029/049 023/045 029/050 026/044
    00/U    00/U    00/U    22/W    00/B    11/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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