Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 200236

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
836 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Current forecast on track with milder temperatures than previous
nights. no updates. borsum


.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

A ridge of high pressure will continue to hold firm across the
forecast area for the remainder of today into Tuesday. The ridge
axis remains to our west and this combined with some cold air
aloft has allowed cu to develop across the area. The northwest
flow aloft we have seen the past several days has weakened. This
combined with less mixing has resulted in lighter winds today and
not as gusty, although they still remain gusty across the far
eastern areas from Miles City to Baker. The clouds are expected to
dissipate around sunset leaving a clear to mostly clear night.

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week due to pre-frontal
warming. A strong Pacific front will approach the forecast area
during the afternoon and evening, flattening the ridge and
bringing a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. The
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain
across southwest Montana and move northeast onto the plains late
afternoon/early evening. The best jet dynamics look to be across
the Canadian border but our forecast area will have some decent
shear. Although dewpoints may be near 50 degrees, a westerly wind
may help to downslope the lower levels. This is also shown in
soundings where a decent temperature/dewpoint spread is showing.
However, precip waters are progged to be around an inch. In any
case, the main threat looks to be strong wind gusts and hail.

Gusty northwest winds will usher in behind the front on Wednesday
with dry conditions prevailing. Temperatures will warm into the
upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday but cool back to around normal
readings Wednesday with upper 70s to lower 80s common.

As for hydrology, given the warm temperatures over the next
couple of days, rivers will again see increased flows. Most rivers
should see rises, and possibly some bank erosion, but no flooding
is expected. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

No major changes to the going forecast. After a very warm
Tuesday, we will see temperatures trend lower through the end of
the week as heights aloft drop and a Canadian upper low drops
south into the area by Friday. Temperatures go from the 80s
Wednesday, 70s Thursday to possibly 60s for Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures begin to warm Sunday into Monday as the flow shifts
from northerly to southwesterly aloft. Precipitation chances will
be limited through most of the extended with the best chances
being Friday/Friday night as the upper low drops into the region.



No hazards to aviation interests anticipated this evening with
VFR conditions across the region. BT



    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
BIL 058/092 062/083 052/077 049/068 046/070 047/077 051/083
    01/U    20/U    00/U    13/T    32/W    10/U    00/U
LVM 052/089 054/081 043/074 041/066 038/067 039/074 044/078
    01/U    20/U    00/U    13/T    32/W    20/U    00/U
HDN 056/094 062/085 051/079 049/070 045/071 045/078 049/084
    01/U    30/U    10/U    13/T    32/W    10/U    00/U
MLS 056/094 064/084 052/078 050/069 045/070 046/078 051/085
    01/B    30/U    10/U    12/T    22/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 055/093 062/084 053/078 048/070 045/068 044/076 049/083
    00/U    20/U    10/U    22/T    32/W    20/U    00/U
BHK 050/089 060/082 049/075 046/067 042/067 041/074 047/080
    00/B    30/N    10/U    12/T    22/W    00/U    00/U
SHR 052/090 057/081 049/075 047/068 042/066 041/073 046/080
    01/U    21/B    20/U    13/T    33/W    20/U    00/U




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