Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 160345
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
945 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

.UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH YELLOWSTONE COUNTY AND AREAS
WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN AREAS
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA HIT SUSTAINED OF 40
MPH AND GUSTED TO 56 MPH FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT
HAVE SINCE DECREASED. FURTHER EAST...BIG TIMBER HAS BEEN GUSTING
TO AROUND 45 MPH AND REED POINT ABOUT 40 MPH. WINDS AROUND
COLUMBUS WERE SUSTAINED BRIEFLY AROUND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 47
MPH. BILLINGS AIRPORT GUSTED TO 43 MPH LAST HOUR. WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY DECREASING BUT ARE STILL QUITE GUSTY SO WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY...HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN WELL OVER 25 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS
RESULTING IN THE CANCELLATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING EARLIER THIS
EVENING.

RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
ZONES WITH MOVEMENT NORTH/NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...SOME SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND THESE
ARE HOLDING TOGETHER SOME AS THEY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS. AS A
RESULT...SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WERE ADDED FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
JUST OFF THE FOOTHILLS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH YELLOWSTONE COUNTY AND AREAS WESTWARD
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN AREAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA HIT SUSTAINED OF 40 MPH AND
GUSTED TO 56 MPH FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT HAVE
SINCE DECREASED. FURTHER EAST...BIG TIMBER HAS BEEN GUSTING TO
AROUND 45 MPH AND REED POINT ABOUT 40 MPH. WINDS AROUND COLUMBUS
WERE SUSTAINED BRIEFLY AROUND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 47 MPH.
BILLINGS AIRPORT GUSTED TO 43 MPH LAST HOUR. WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY DECREASING BUT ARE STILL QUITE GUSTY SO WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR WEST AND NORTHERN ZONES
WITH MOVEMENT NORTH/NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...SOME SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND THESE ARE
HOLDING TOGETHER SOME AS THEY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS. AS A
RESULT...SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WERE ADDED FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
JUST OFF THE FOOTHILLS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH ONLY
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON
MANY DAYS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S F IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...PROBABLY AS EARLY AS SAT IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN SUN AND TUE THANKS TO RIDGING ALOFT. A 12
UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS THE DRIVER FOR THE FORECAST...BUT WE
DID LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR HIGHS
MOST DAYS IN RESPECT TO 700-MB TEMPERATURES OF +6 TO +8 C.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATIONS DO HAVE
A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND POSSIBLY A
LEAD SHORTWAVE WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TUE AND
WED. HOWEVER...THE MEAN OF THE ENSEMBLES FROM BOTH MODEL CORES HAS
A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THAT TROUGH...SO WE TOOK A RATHER
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH ANY COOLING AND SHOWER CHANCES FOR NOW.
SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BILLINGS AROUND 03Z TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MILES CITY REA BY 05Z. WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 TO 45
MPH WITH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
FROM BIG TIMBER WITH GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE THROUGH 05Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. RICHMOND


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/064 040/064 044/072 044/071 044/073 047/072 045/065
    10/N    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    21/B
LVM 042/060 038/064 043/071 042/071 043/072 045/070 040/061
    20/N    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B
HDN 042/066 036/066 038/074 041/073 041/075 043/074 042/067
    00/N    00/U    00/E    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/B
MLS 047/064 037/061 037/070 043/071 042/073 044/074 044/066
    10/N    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/B
4BQ 046/063 038/060 038/070 041/073 042/074 043/074 042/065
    00/N    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
BHK 044/059 033/054 030/063 040/069 039/070 041/072 041/062
    10/N    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 036/062 031/063 034/073 037/071 039/075 041/073 039/065
    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONE 34.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR ZONES
      41-65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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