Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 281031
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
331 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Tue...

The advertised winter storm is steadily strengthening over the
eastern Dakotas this morning. Pressure gradients across the
forecast area will strengthen through the next 36 hours, bringing
a strong increase in northwest winds across the region. Snow was
already picking up in intensity over central and western North
Dakota as rich Gulf moisture is brought north and west around
this storm.

As we move through the day, northwest winds will steadily
increase to 20-30 mph. Snow will move into our eastern counties
later this afternoon and evening as ascent moves over these
regions. Once the snow moves in tonight, expect temperatures to
quickly drop into the mid 20s with roads becoming snow covered and
areas of blowing snow developing 0- in the overnight hours. The
surface low reaches its furthest westward extent early Tuesday
morning, and this will be the period of heaviest snow, lowest
visibilities, and strongest winds (30 to 40 mph) across our
eastern zones. The inherited forecast hasn`t changed much, and we
still expect the heaviest impacts from this storm to be east of a
Forsyth-Hardin-Sheridan line. Snow amounts in these areas will
range from 2-6 inches (with higher amounts the closer one goes to
the Dakotas) for the event.

While snow amounts might not seem high for a winter storm, we want
to stress that the combination of snow and winds is what will
make travel conditions very hazardous in these eastern zones. With
quickly cooling temperatures across the region, blowing snow will
be prevalent, causing heavily reduced visibilities, and drifting
snow in some areas, and snow packed roads. With these impacts
still on track, we upgraded the Winter Storm Watch in our eastern
counties into a Winter Storm Warning. We also added Winter
Weather Advisories for the Bighorn Mountains (4-6 inches of
snow), and Rosebud county (2-4 inches of snow) as strong winds
will create some areas of blowing snow and hazardous travel
conditions overnight and early Tuesday morning.

Locations west of this Forsyth-Hardin-Sheridan line (minus the
Bighorn mountains) will likely see up to 1 inch of snow. Would
not be surprised to see locations from Reed Point-Billings-Roundup
to see zero snow with this event. While locations west of this
line will likely miss out on the snow, they should expect 20 to 30
mph winds lasting from Monday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon.

The storm system moves out of the region by Tuesday evening,
bringing a quick end to the snow and winds across the forecast
area. For the rest of the short term, folks can expect a much
quieter day on Wednesday with high pressure moving in overhead.
Dobbs

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

The extended continues to be dominated by cooler and more
unsettled weather. Wednesday the snow associated with the cutoff
low over the central plains will continue to move out of Montana.
Thursday night another quick shortwave will move through western
and central Montana. The track of the shortwave is more to the
west and winds are not becoming northeasterly across the area, so
the chances for snow are more confined more to the
Beartooth/Absaroka mountains. Friday through the weekend will see
flow remain unsettled. Have kept some chance PoPs over the higher
terrain. Early next week another stronger system looks to move in
from the Pacific Northwest bringing a better chance for snow, but
there are some model differences on how this system will evolve.
Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect winds to increase out of the northwest through the day.
Gusts 25 to 35 knots mainly from SHR and BIL east expected by 00Z.
Snow will move into BHK, MLS, and SHR this afternoon and evening
producing MVFR to IFR conditions, with some localized LIFR
possible. Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042 028/038 023/038 025/038 022/036 023/043 028/043
    1/N 32/O    11/U    12/S    21/B    12/O    11/E
LVM 039 027/035 022/037 026/037 021/035 023/042 030/043
    4/O 33/S    11/N    22/S    21/B    22/O    22/O
HDN 043 026/037 021/037 022/036 020/035 019/042 024/042
    2/R 43/S    11/U    12/S    21/B    12/O    12/O
MLS 040 026/033 021/033 015/032 017/032 017/042 022/039
    5/O 87/S    31/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    12/S
4BQ 042 024/031 019/033 013/033 014/031 014/040 021/039
    3/R 98/S    41/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 035 023/028 017/027 010/027 011/028 012/037 018/036
    7/S +9/S    63/S    11/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 039 022/032 017/033 016/033 014/031 012/039 020/039
    2/O 54/S    11/U    12/S    21/B    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6
      AM MST Wednesday FOR ZONES 31-58.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 6
      AM MST Wednesday FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6
      PM MST Tuesday FOR ZONE 98.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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