Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 182053
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TURN WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH...SO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL TO
NON EXISTENT. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH GOES THROUGH BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING GREATER THAN 25 MPH
MOST PLACES. LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL AMPLIFY NORTH ON SUNDAY
AND PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND
PROVIDES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BETTER MIXING. HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ON MONDAY. A
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO DID NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS IDAHO BUT MODELS WEAKEN
IT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES OVER WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AND THEN SPREAD THEM AS FAR EAST AS ROSEBUD COUNTY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK SO
RIGHT NOW ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE
JET STREAM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND TUESDAYS WAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/072 046/075 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/069 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 038/071 039/073 046/071 041/063 040/067 047/065 043/067
    00/U    00/U    02/W    21/B    01/U    11/B    11/U
HDN 042/073 042/076 044/076 043/067 039/072 043/070 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    21/B    00/U    00/U    10/U
MLS 043/071 043/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/069 041/068
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/B    10/U
4BQ 042/072 042/075 045/076 045/064 039/070 042/069 042/070
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 040/068 039/071 042/074 043/063 038/067 041/066 040/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    01/U    10/U
SHR 039/072 039/078 042/078 041/066 036/071 039/070 039/070
    00/U    00/U    00/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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