Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 231552
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
852 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE FOR TODAY...TO LOWER TEMPS IN SHERIDAN. IT APPEARS
THAT SHERIDAN WILL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM MIXING WINDS TODAY...SO
DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS THE REST OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...THE GOING FORECAST APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

MUCH WARMER AIR MASS AND A BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /TUESDAY NIGHT/ WE WILL SEE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW AND OPENING
THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE ON
TUESDAY DUE TO GOOD MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS MAXING OUT AROUND 17C
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAYS. SO HIGHS AROUND 50 LOOK GOOD FOR MANY
AREAS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME CLOUD COVER.

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM IS HOW QUICK PRECIPITATION MAY
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SECONDARY TO THAT
IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO BE BRINGING IN FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT WE SAW FROM THE MODEL
CYCLES 24 HRS AGO. CIPS TIME-LAGGED GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION GETTING WELL INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 12Z WED.
BUFKIT ALSO SHOWS DECENT OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER A
LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THIS INFO I BUMPED UP POPS
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX EARLY
ON BUT TURNING TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP WHERE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LEFT
OFF...IN THE MIDDLE OF A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

MODELS DEPICT A BATCH OF ENERGY DROPPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST...QUICKLY ELIMINATING BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY.
IN EXAMINING VARIOUS MODEL FORECAST TOOLS...MAINLY THE ESRL
REFORECAST PRECIP SUITE...THEY ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE AREAS FROM
BILLINGS WEST FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MOVING THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH IN OUR CWA. SO...KEPT POPS MUCH HIGHER FOR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES.

THE SYSTEM SETS UP NICELY FOR AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT FOR MAINLY
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. THIS WEEKENDS COLDER AIR AND THE
ONSET OF THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP
THE GROUND COLD ENOUGH FOR THE ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL. BEING THE
EVENT IS NOW JUST ABOUT TWO DAYS OUT...WILL SAY STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WHEN
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH
SEVERAL IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. SINGER


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT IN
MANY AREAS TODAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037 026/051 031/037 011/022 007/029 012/028 013/030
    0/N 01/B    77/W    52/J    12/J    22/J    21/B
LVM 034 025/047 030/038 013/028 007/035 010/030 009/031
    0/U 01/N    45/J    52/J    12/J    23/J    22/J
HDN 040 024/052 030/037 010/022 006/029 009/028 012/030
    0/B 01/B    86/W    41/B    11/B    12/J    22/J
MLS 036 024/048 026/029 001/016 004/027 010/027 010/027
    0/B 01/E    34/J    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
4BQ 034 023/050 026/032 003/018 000/027 007/029 009/028
    0/B 01/B    46/J    21/B    11/B    11/E    21/B
BHK 035 021/044 019/022 906/012 903/024 006/025 006/025
    0/N 02/W    44/J    11/U    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 027 022/048 028/033 010/018 002/026 006/025 009/026
    0/U 01/B    37/J    52/J    11/B    22/J    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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