Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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894
FXUS65 KBYZ 050409
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
909 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...

MAKING A LATE UPDATE THIS EVENING...WITH AN INCH OF SNOW REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN MUSSELSHELL COUNTY. THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN WHEATLAND COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN MUSSELSHELL AND CENTRAL
YELLOWSTONE COUNTIES...AND INTO BIG HORN COUNTY. SNOW IS
REPORTEDLY QUITE HEAVY...WITH AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN
APPROXIMATELY 20 MINUTES IN SOME AREAS. RAISED POPS IN THESE
AREAS...AND ADJUSTED QPF AND SNOW FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. GILSTAD

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS TODAY HAVE
SLOWLY DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE LIVINGSTON AREA
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS ALLOWING FOR
LESS STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GAP WIND AREAS. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
HELPING TO DECREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE GIVEN A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A RETURN TO TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS OUR GAP AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THEY WILL BE ORIENTED LESS-FAVORABLY FOR THE VERY
STRONG GAP WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST RISES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MONTANA. HOWEVER...THESE STRONGER RISES SHIFT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT AT
THIS TIME HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY COUNTERACT SOME
OF THE HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. IN ADDITION...NIGHTTIME
PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST ARE NOT CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/WIND COMBINATION
ISSUES OUT TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS SATURDAY NIGHT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A WATCH FOR THAT IN ADDITION TO ANY HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE TAKES
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE WARM WEATHER...NEARING 60 ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR MANY FOLKS...WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL NOT MAKE THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES FEEL AS NICE.

EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AROUND MILES CITY AND BAKER...WHILE
STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WINDY AND COOL...WILL SEE THE WINDS
DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG
THE DIVIDE FROM NYE TO LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON WILL SEE THE WINDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS CROSS-DIVIDE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DEVELOP. THESE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE GAP DRIVEN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE MORE A MIXED WIND WILL SPREAD EAST
TO BILLINGS AND ROUNDUP EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT GAP WIND GUSTS TO
REACH 45 TO 50MPH EACH MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE LOCATIONS
EAST TOWARDS BILLINGS AND ROUNDUP WILL SEE 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
THESE AFTERNOONS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING 60 ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CRASH THE RIDGE. COOL
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THESE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...


MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE AT KMLS AND KLVM WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH 10Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND THE BIG HORNS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS WILL
IMPACT KLVM ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND PICKING UP AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. DOBBS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/045 032/047 028/044 029/049 032/057 035/056 032/049
    30/N    02/W    20/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    11/N
LVM 025/042 034/042 026/040 029/047 034/054 036/051 033/048
    11/N    12/W    21/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    11/N
HDN 025/045 026/048 026/044 023/046 027/054 028/054 027/046
    50/B    02/W    20/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
MLS 023/043 027/048 026/042 023/043 027/051 032/050 027/041
    30/B    02/W    31/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
4BQ 025/043 024/048 026/040 022/042 025/051 030/051 026/043
    31/B    02/W    32/J    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
BHK 022/040 024/046 025/038 021/038 023/047 028/048 023/036
    31/B    02/W    41/N    01/N    11/B    01/U    11/B
SHR 019/040 020/048 024/038 022/045 025/054 027/053 026/047
    30/B    02/W    22/J    00/B    10/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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