Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 221025
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
325 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY PROTECTING OUR REGION FROM ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
ROUND THE RIDGE AND TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL LIMIT THE AFFECTS. SO WE
HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. WIND IMPACTS ARE THE
FORECAST ISSUE WE NEED TO DEAL WITH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.

LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPED LAST EVENING CAUSING WINDS TO
PICK UP AT LIVINGSTON...NYE AND BIG TIMBER. THESE SITES HAVE
GUSTED INTO THE 45-50 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT...BUT A GOOD AND TRUE
GAP FLOW EVENT HAS YET TO OCCUR AS THE ORIENTATION OF MSL PRESSURE
IS TO WESTERLY. THIS WAS ANTICIPATED AND WHY WE DID NOT ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS PATTERN TO THIS POINT. I FEEL WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING WHERE WE MAY GO ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
DUE TO THE LIMITED LENGTH OF TIME WE THINK THIS WILL HAPPEN AND
THE UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS
FOR TODAY. ANOTHER FACTOR IN THIS DECISION IS THAT IT APPEARS WE
WILL SEE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...AND WE WANT TO FOCUS AWARENESS ON THIS PERIOD
RATHER THAN MUDDLE THE LENS WITH OVER COMPLICATED WORDING IN
PRODUCTS. WE WILL START ADVERTISING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WIND
THREAT MORE AGGRESSIVELY WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...RISING TEMPS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN MANY PLACES
OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS PICKED UP. NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE MILD
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWER ELEVATION
SNOW COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DISAPPEAR. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE FORECAST REMAINS QUIET AFTER SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...THUS THE LOW CHANCES AND LOW AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE BIGGER
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS IN THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS.
WINDS WILL BE 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY BE USHERED OUT OF THE AREA AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MILD AND QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS ARE SHOWING EVERY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY LOOK TO
BE NEAR THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
50S APPROACHING 60S. WITH DIMINISHING SNOW COVER AND WINDS HELPING
TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE
SOLUTION. FOR HIGHS HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE MOS CONSENSUS
SOLUTION AND RAISED TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN OUT...BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME MOUNTAIN
PRECIP. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...


THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS AROUND
LIVINGSTON...BIG TIMBER...AND THE REST OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS.
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042 029/044 032/048 037/053 036/057 033/052 033/048
    0/N 10/N    02/W    21/N    10/N    00/B    00/B
LVM 044 031/047 033/049 036/054 036/057 036/053 033/050
    0/N 11/N    12/W    21/N    10/N    00/N    01/B
HDN 041 023/043 025/046 031/052 029/055 027/050 027/046
    0/B 11/B    03/W    21/B    10/U    00/U    00/B
MLS 038 027/041 027/044 033/049 032/050 030/045 030/043
    0/B 10/B    02/W    21/E    11/B    00/U    01/B
4BQ 039 025/042 026/047 034/050 032/053 028/048 026/047
    0/B 10/B    02/W    21/E    10/U    00/U    00/B
BHK 038 025/040 025/044 031/045 031/047 027/044 027/041
    0/B 10/B    02/W    21/N    11/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 041 021/044 020/047 030/051 030/054 029/050 024/045
    0/B 02/J    02/W    21/B    10/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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