Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260350
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
850 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS AND TO CANCEL THE
ADVISORIES FOR THE RED LODGE AND BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS...SOUTHERN
BIG HORN COUNTY AND SHERIDAN COUNTY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWED
THAT SNOW HAD MOVED OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FROM KBIL NW INTO WHEATLAND COUNTY. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
SNOW HAD DIMINISHED...WITH ENHANCED BANDS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON
RADAR...AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STABILIZING TREND. ONLY A
FEW OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTERS WERE REPORTING SNOW AND THESE
REPORTS INDICATED THE SNOW WAS LIGHT.

SREF SHOWED DECREASING QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND NEW WRF DID
NOT HAVE MUCH QPF EITHER. WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
AS WELL DUE TO PRESSURE RISES MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS ALSO
HAVE BECOME E PROVIDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW.

THUS HAVE SPREAD LIKELY POPS INTO THE NW ZONES AND REDUCED
FOOTHILLS TO CHANCE. LEFT INHERITED LOWER POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN A FEW AREAS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW FROM KBIL W AND S LOOKED GOOD THU MORNING. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. SNOW HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PUSH. AS
EXPECTED THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE FOOTHILLS REGIONS. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT WINTER ADVISORIES
IN PLACE...WITH CONVECTIVE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE FOOTHILLS EXCEED 6 INCHES /WARNING
CRITERIA AS OPPOSED TO ADVISORY CRITERIA/ IN SOME UNSTABLE
BANDS...ESPECIALLY PLACES LIKE STORY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE
OTHER OUTLETS AND PRODUCTS TO RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS POSSIBILITY. THE
ONE EXCEPTION TO CONTINUING ADVISORIES WILL BE THE BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY FOR JUDITH GAP...WHICH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED...AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS...BUT WILL BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG MOUNTAINS AND BY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THURSDAY AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT BRISK MORNINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WELL...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO FOR NIGHT TIME LOWS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MAINLY OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST
PARTS ON SATURDAY...WITH A TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHEARED ENERGY SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS AN
INTERESTING TIME PERIOD AS ASCENT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT
WITH A MOIST 850-700MB DENDRITIC LAYER AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS JUST A BIT...BUT KEPT SNOW AMTS
AT AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW PCPN
ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. SATURDAY TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY W/ REINFORCING CANADIAN SFC RIDGE...AND HIGHS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WX WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH NW FLOW SUNDAY BACKING TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AS NEXT TROF DRIVES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE PAC NW...ALL
WHILE A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IS SUSTAINED IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A LITTLE DOWNSLOPE OR PREFRONTAL WARMING...BUT TEMPS SHOULD
STAY BELOW EARLY MARCH NORMALS...EVEN WITHOUT MUCH SNOW COVER
WHICH COULD BE A FACTOR.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING A POTENTIAL TROF NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD POINT OUT THAT TODAY/S MODEL RUNS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER WITH DYNAMICS IN OUR REGION...WITH
STRONG JET FAR TO OUR WEST EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A DEEP LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WILL KEEP POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SEEM TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED PERIODS FOR PCPN AT THIS TIME. MORE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF CANADIAN COLD BEGINNING TUESDAY...THOUGH WE MAY
BEGIN TO MODERATE BY EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. PLENTY OF MODEL
ISSUES TO BE WORKED OUT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FROM KBIL TO KSHR WESTWARD TO KLVM AND K3HT. LOCAL MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...AND MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY OBSCURED. PCPN IS ENDING IN SE MT NEAR KMLS AND
KBHK...AND VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY/COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 006/017 000/025 010/020 005/028 013/037 016/023 003/028
    62/J    01/B    23/J    10/U    01/U    34/S    32/J
LVM 006/021 903/031 008/020 908/031 010/038 015/024 000/028
    62/J    02/J    44/J    21/U    01/B    44/S    32/J
HDN 007/020 901/028 007/023 001/029 008/038 015/026 004/028
    60/B    01/B    12/J    10/U    00/U    33/S    22/J
MLS 902/014 902/026 008/023 007/029 011/037 014/024 004/024
    10/U    01/U    11/B    11/U    00/U    22/S    21/B
4BQ 000/014 904/026 006/023 003/026 008/035 014/025 003/023
    30/U    01/B    12/J    10/U    00/U    23/S    22/J
BHK 907/011 906/025 005/022 005/026 008/035 012/024 001/023
    10/U    00/U    10/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    21/E
SHR 005/014 901/024 004/019 903/025 005/034 012/022 002/023
    62/J    01/U    23/J    20/U    00/U    34/S    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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