Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 151054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
354 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu...

High pressure ridging will build once again across the forecast
area today behind yesterdays cold front and upper level
disturbance that brought the precip to the area. 500mb heights
rise today, and this combined with mostly sunny skies, will allow
temperatures to warm to near normal values today. An upper low and
trough off the Pacific northwest coast will slowly move inland
tonight into the day Thursday. This will bring increasing clouds
to our western areas tonight along with a chance for mountain snow
showers. The ridge axis will shift east Thursday with heights
lowering as the upper low and trough push east across the Northern
Rockies. Precip chances will increase over the Beartooth/Absaroka
Mountains and adjacent foothills with this activity moving east
across Billings to Forsyth during the afternoon. Several pieces of
vorticity move across the forecast area Thursday night resulting
in snow shower chances continuing and expanding across the entire
forecast area. Overall, impacts look minimal with this system.
Temperatures Thursday will warm into the 50s for most areas.

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Upper trof over the area Friday will keep cool, windy, and
showery conditions going for most of the day. Significantly colder
air will be held mainly north and east of the area based on the
past few model runs, so highs in the 35 to 45 degree range look
reasonable, but wind chill values will be below freezing in most
locations. Precipitation clears Friday night with lows in the
teens/20s. Northwest flow will keep a chance of snow going for the
mountains but seasonal temperatures and dry conditions for the
lower elevations.

Sunday and Monday the upper flow becomes zonal to weak ridging
keeping dry conditions for areas east of the divide and warming
temperatures to the mid to upper 40s and maybe low 50s. Pacific
moisture will increase in the mid to upper levels for a chance for
mountain snow on west facing slopes, and bring a good deal of
cirrus cloud cover the the area. Winds will be strong at times
along the front range.

After Monday models get all scrambled up with handling of the next
upper trof to move through the area, and trended forecast to the
ensemble mean. This kept mainly dry conditions and temperatures in
the 40s to lower 50s. A caveat is that there continues to be
significant arctic air building over northern Canada over the next
week and models continue to have some ensemble members dislodging
this air into our area at times, especially in the farther
extended. It looks like the blocking pattern over the central
Pacific may be breaking down early next week so will keep an eye
on the middle of next week for potentially significant forecast
changes heading into Thanksgiving. Chambers



IFR ceilings this morning along and east of a Forsyth to Broadus
line will dissipate by 17z. Outside of this stratus, expect VFR
conditions across the area today into tonight. Winds will increase
in the western foothills with afternoon and evening gusts to
around 40kts at KLVM. Chambers



    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
BIL 041 032/053 031/042 026/040 027/045 032/045 027/042
    0/U 13/W    45/W    10/B    00/B    00/B    11/B
LVM 042 034/050 028/037 021/035 024/041 031/043 026/042
    0/N 26/W    46/W    11/N    10/N    01/N    22/J
HDN 045 029/056 030/043 025/042 025/047 031/046 026/044
    0/U 01/B    45/W    10/B    00/B    00/B    11/B
MLS 042 028/055 030/045 026/042 025/046 030/044 024/040
    0/U 01/B    33/W    10/B    00/B    00/B    11/B
4BQ 047 031/061 031/044 027/041 025/047 029/047 025/042
    0/U 01/B    34/W    10/B    00/B    00/B    11/B
BHK 038 025/055 028/043 023/038 024/046 028/043 022/037
    0/U 01/B    33/W    10/B    00/U    00/B    00/B
SHR 046 029/059 029/041 022/039 024/048 028/048 025/044
    0/U 11/B    45/W    10/U    00/B    00/B    11/B




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