Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 270147
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
747 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. NO UPDATES
NEEDED THIS EVENING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOT AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY. THE
WESTERN US RIDGE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE WELL IN THE 80S. TEMPERATURES AT
700MB CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS
DRIFTS FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE THE MID TO
UPPER 90S TOMORROW AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SOME SLIGHT POPS EXIST
EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE THAT THE LIFT FROM THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD CREATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS ACTIVITY SURVIVING ONCE THEY LEAVE THE
TERRAIN AND SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB
HEIGHTS...COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUN AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER THE PAST DAY OR TWO...BUT WE
STILL THINK THE CENTURY MARK IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY LATER MONDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE AT OR NEAR AN INCH IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EVENING.

AFTER THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WE BEGIN TO COOL OFF AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE FALLING APART...500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY
FRIDAY THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. THIS FRONT IS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING EAST COAST
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH
THIS FEATURE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY BRING DAY TIME TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SAT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON DUE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS AND NE BIGHORNS.
ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/095 064/096 066/100 068/093 066/091 064/088 063/086
    00/U    11/B    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/B
LVM 055/096 057/097 057/100 058/093 054/092 055/089 055/087
    00/U    01/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    12/T
HDN 060/097 062/098 063/101 067/095 065/093 063/091 063/088
    00/U    01/U    11/G    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/B
MLS 060/094 061/095 064/097 067/094 064/089 063/088 062/085
    00/U    00/U    00/U    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 058/091 059/093 062/096 066/092 064/089 063/087 062/085
    00/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 058/090 058/090 061/093 064/088 061/085 059/083 058/082
    00/U    00/U    00/U    22/T    21/B    11/U    11/B
SHR 056/090 058/091 059/093 063/090 059/087 058/085 058/082
    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    21/B    12/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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