Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240004
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
604 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...

MAKING A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO EXPAND COVERAGE FOR THE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THROUGH 03Z. HAVE ADDED SHERIDAN
COUNTY IN WYOMING...AND PORTIONS OF BIGHORN...TREASURE...AND
ROSEBUD COUNTIES IN MONTANA. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO AREAS FURTHER
EAST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS...AND SHOULD CROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...AND
SHOULD PROCEED EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE MID 50S FROM
BILLINGS WEST DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER. AREAS TO THE EAST SAW
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS REACH THE LOW 60S.

WEAK RADAR ECHOES STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE ONSET OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL QG FORCING IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...AIDING IN THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT THE SREF TOOLS FROM
SPC...LI VALUES OF -2 ARE SHOWING UP OVER PORTIONS OF BIG HORN AND
POWDER RIVER COUNTY FOR LATER THIS EVENING...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE GREATER IN THOSE AREAS.

CIPS TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN PLACING UP TO
0.1 INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ABOUT HALF OF
THAT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PLAINS. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TOMORROW WILL SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING
WITH IT COOLER TEMPERATURES. 700 AND 850 TEMPERATURE AND WIND
ANALYSIS HINT AT A TROWAL LIKE FEATURE WHICH WILL AIDE IN
BRINGING SOME MOISTURE BACK TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TREASURE STATE. PLACES IN AND AROUND BAKER COULD SEE SOME SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH MOST LIKELY...THE MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL
BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THERE. SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO END
THE WEEK AND BEGIN THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED ALONG BY
ENERGY STREAMING IN FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA THAT WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE. BOTH MODELS KEEP THE CORE ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND THUS THE
STATE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID TO LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. THIS WAVE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDGING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE ARE CERTAIN TRENDS THAT SEEM TO BECOMING MORE
APPARENT. THE TREND IS FOR TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR TO COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO FOR NEXT WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM
KBIL/KSHR LINE EASTWARD. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A
FEW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/057 030/053 039/051 032/070 046/077 042/061 039/069
    54/W    43/W    32/W    10/B    02/W    22/W    11/B
LVM 031/050 029/050 035/055 035/070 047/072 041/061 041/068
    65/W    53/W    22/W    10/N    02/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 034/060 026/054 034/051 028/070 039/079 038/063 035/072
    53/W    33/W    32/W    10/B    02/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 038/055 026/048 029/048 026/066 039/076 036/060 035/067
    62/W    12/W    22/W    10/B    02/W    21/B    11/B
4BQ 037/058 025/048 027/047 026/064 038/078 037/060 034/070
    63/W    12/W    23/W    10/B    02/W    21/B    11/B
BHK 034/051 023/043 022/041 021/058 035/074 033/055 030/066
    74/W    12/J    22/J    10/B    02/W    21/B    11/B
SHR 034/055 027/047 030/048 026/065 038/078 039/060 035/068
    54/W    44/W    43/W    30/B    02/W    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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