Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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378
FXUS65 KBYZ 090350
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
850 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND WINDS A BIT OVERNIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES ENHANCING
GAP FLOW AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND
WINDS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL. EASTERN AREAS WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT. BASED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY...WARMED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

QUIET NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN MAINLY A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP FALLON
COUNTY DURING THE DAY SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER FOR THE BAKER AREA ON TUESDAY.

A DISORGANIZED LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE FAVORED GAP AREAS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT
ORIENTATION IS MORE PARALLEL THAN PERPENDICULAR TO THE PARADISE
VALLEY SO WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WE CAN`T
RULE OUT A 60 MPH GUST. IN ANY CASE...THIS WILL NOT BE A WIND
EVENT FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA THAN WAS THE CASE LAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST
TUESDAY...WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...


MODELS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RUNS IN THE
EXTENDED...THUS DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. THE BIGGEST WEATHER
MAKER WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT AS AT SOME
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS AND SNOW THE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BEFORE THAT...THE RIDGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY. THURSDAY NIGHT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES. FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE RAISED POPS A LITTLE AS SOME ENERGY
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO THE CENTRAL ZONES.

AS THE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING.
THIS COUPLED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OVER IDAHO WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK ORIENTED WRONG FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS. IT IS A BETTER SETUP OF HARLOWTON
AND BIG TIMBER. IT LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY BREEZY DAY SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...


WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT FOR ALL
TERMINALS BUT KLVM. STRONGER WSW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WITH 35KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KLVM. WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AT KSHR AS WELL WITH NW WINDS AROUND 30
TO 40 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AGL. GUSTY 15 TO 25 KNOT WEST WINDS PICK
UP AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/062 036/062 037/059 036/052 033/051 035/054 035/056
    00/U    00/N    01/B    01/B    11/B    21/N    11/N
LVM 037/058 035/057 036/051 036/051 035/048 033/047 034/050
    00/N    00/N    01/N    11/N    11/N    22/W    12/W
HDN 032/059 028/060 031/056 029/049 028/048 030/052 029/055
    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    12/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 031/055 029/055 029/050 030/043 027/045 033/051 032/052
    01/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    22/W    32/W    11/B
4BQ 032/055 029/059 029/053 029/047 025/045 030/051 030/053
    01/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    22/W    11/B
BHK 026/046 027/051 026/044 026/037 021/038 028/047 028/048
    12/W    10/U    01/B    21/E    12/J    22/W    11/B
SHR 033/056 027/057 028/053 029/048 026/047 028/050 027/052
    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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