Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 262236
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
336 PM MST Sat Nov 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

One more mild day ahead before change to cooler and much more
unsettled weather to start the work week. A flat upper ridge was
gradually sliding east and this will provide southwest flow for
Sunday. A surface trough will slide east through the day and turn
low level winds to the west/northwest. Highs should approach the
lower 50s by early afternoon before cooler weather starts to slide
in. A splitting trough works into the area Sunday and allows weak
energy and increasing moisture to move into the southwest
mountains. Have raised pops to likely Sunday afternoon and night
for the Beartooth/Absarokas. Strongest dynamics stay to the south
and have thus kept accumulations down.

The advancing trough splits with a low cutting off over western
South Dakota Sunday afternoon. Snow will taper off over the
southwest mountains Sunday night before increasing again Monday as
the next system drops in from British Columbia. For the east, the
cut off low will have limited moisture initially, but deeper
moisture from the south Pacific gets wrap into it by Monday
afternoon and night. The ECMWF was deeper with closing the low off
and then does not move the system east quite a fast once the low
is cut off. Models were consistent, however, in wrapping moisture
into the east as early as Monday afternoon as colder air drops in
from the north. Have increased pops over the far east for Monday
afternoon. Northwest winds will increase as a surface low deepens
over the Dakotas. This system will set up a potential snow and
blowing snow event for the east for Monday night through Tuesday
night, more on that in the extended. For the west, the next system
from British Columbia drops into eastern Idaho Monday afternoon
and bring a shot of rain/snow to the west. Billings will be
between systems and will cover with a low PoP for now and see how
this complicated pattern gets resolved.

Confidence is definitely increasing in a cooler and unsettled
pattern for the week ahead, with the distinct possibility of a
snow and blowing snow event over the east early in the week. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

A strong late Fall storm system looks to be taking shape across
the northern high plains Monday night through Tuesday night.
Models have been overall consistent the past couple of days. Both
the GFS and ECMWF place a 700mb low over western Minnesota late
Monday afternoon into the day Tuesday. At the same time, a surface
low will be across the eastern Dakotas. The combination of these
two lows will result in very gusty northwest winds late Monday
into Tuesday evening mainly for areas east of Billings. In
addition, the surface low will wrap moisture around it into the
western Dakotas and across the eastern portions of Montana. I did
not make any significant changes to the previous forecast and
will keep likely pops for Fallon and Carter counties Monday night
and Tuesday with high chances slightly further west of that area.
Snow accumulations are looking likely in the 3 to 6 inch range.
This combined with the gusty northwest winds will result in
blowing and drifting snow and reduced visibilities. We will most
likely need some type of winter weather highlight for this system.

General troughiness will be over the forecast area Wednesday
onward. Some weak disturbances will move across the area bringing
a chance for light snow at times but at this time no strong storm
system looks to move into the area. Temperatures beginning Tuesday
continuing through the remainder of the week will cool down to at
or slightly below normal with readings in the upper 20s to middle
30s. Hooley

&&

.AVIATION...

Clear to partly cloudy skies along with VFR conditions will
prevail this evening and overnight. No aviation hazards are
expected. Hooley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/051 032/043 029/039 024/038 026/037 023/034 019/038
    01/B    12/W    22/O    10/U    22/S    22/S    11/B
LVM 031/048 028/039 026/036 021/036 025/038 021/035 015/038
    13/W    34/W    32/O    11/B    23/S    22/S    12/J
HDN 026/050 030/043 027/038 021/037 021/035 020/033 016/036
    01/B    12/W    33/O    11/U    12/S    22/S    11/B
MLS 025/050 029/041 025/035 019/034 016/033 018/034 014/034
    00/B    13/W    66/S    11/B    12/S    22/S    11/B
4BQ 027/053 029/042 023/033 017/032 013/032 015/031 012/033
    00/B    13/W    66/S    11/B    12/S    11/B    11/B
BHK 024/049 025/036 021/029 016/027 012/028 014/029 011/029
    00/B    25/J    67/S    42/J    12/S    22/S    11/B
SHR 024/048 026/040 021/032 016/033 014/032 013/028 011/031
    02/W    22/W    43/S    11/B    12/S    22/S    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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