Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 151606
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1006 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.UPDATE...

With good moisture advection from the southeast today expect
increased coverage of thunderstorms for areas west of Rosebud
county today. Adjusted forecast for the latest models, but
discounted 06z GFS which over did convection early this morning.
Storms will be wet but can expect significant lightning activity
with them as well as wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph. Southeast winds
look breezy at 10 to 20 mph with a few stronger gusts thrown in.
This will help take the edge off of temperatures in the 90s to
around 100 degrees this afternoon. Overall forecast in good shape
this morning. Chambers

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms were affecting portions of
south central Montana early this morning as some weak energy was
rotating around the ridge in place over the region. Today will be
breezy at times with east to southeast winds over the area as the
next disturbance approaches from the west increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening, highest over
western areas. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce
gusty winds. A low level jet setting up over our area could be
the focus for some nocturnal convection tonight, so have kept some
isolated thunderstorms in overnight. The low level jet will also
cause gusty southerly ridge winds tonight with poor to marginal RH
recoveries.

On Sunday, a pre-frontal trof is progged to move into the area
during the morning with a cold front moving through during the
afternoon and evening hours. The front will cause winds to shift
out of the northwest and be accompanied by strong thunderstorms
with gusty winds. Similar to the squall line the area saw last
Monday. Gusty south to southwest winds are possible across our
southeast ahead of the front. Showers and thunderstorms will
linger into the overnight hours across portions of the area.

Decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for our central and eastern
fire weather zones for Sunday afternoon and evening to account for
the cold front and intense thunderstorms progged to accompany the
front. While wind and RH look marginal ahead of the front, the
fast moving nature of the thunderstorms and dry fuels across
central and eastern areas will bring the potential for new fire
starts.

High temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s can be expected both
today and Sunday. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Upper ridge continues to look suppressed to the south of our area
throughout the upcoming work week. Disturbances should propagate
through the upper flow producing periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Lightning could produce new fire starts.

Low-level easterly flow looks to develop mainly over southeast MT
beginning Monday night and could persist through about Thursday.
This low-level flow can increase moisture content mainly east of
Billings, increasing the chance that some wet thunderstorms can
return mainly over southeast MT. The flow can also contribute to
appreciable bulk shear values that aid thunderstorms in becoming
strong. Too early for details but potential is there for strong
storms at some point during the week...especially over southeast
MT.

High temperatures should generally range from the middle 80s to
middle 90s. These values are near or just above seasonal normals.
RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated thunderstorms will spread W to E across the area this
afternoon. A few storms are possible over the mountains this
morning with localized obscurations. Otherwise MVFR to IFR
conditions are possible with the thunderstorms over the plains.
There will be areas of mountain obscuration. Isolated
thunderstorms with MVFR/IFR conditions will continue over the
region tonight, with localized to areas of mountain obscuration. A
few showers and thunderstorms will affect the KMLS and western
mountain areas Sun. morning. Arthur


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 097 068/095 062/088 061/089 063/091 064/095 064/093
    2/T 23/T    31/U    32/T    12/T    12/T    21/U
LVM 091 060/090 051/087 052/089 053/091 054/092 055/091
    3/T 33/T    21/U    32/T    12/T    12/T    21/U
HDN 098 065/098 060/091 060/092 062/093 062/097 062/096
    2/T 23/T    31/U    32/T    12/T    12/T    21/U
MLS 098 074/101 065/092 064/091 065/091 065/095 068/096
    1/U 22/T    41/U    32/T    22/T    12/T    21/U
4BQ 096 070/101 064/092 063/092 064/093 064/093 065/094
    2/T 21/G    41/U    22/T    22/T    12/T    21/U
BHK 095 067/100 063/091 061/087 060/088 061/091 062/093
    0/U 12/T    41/U    33/T    33/T    23/T    32/T
SHR 094 062/097 057/088 057/091 059/091 058/092 058/092
    2/T 22/T    42/T    32/T    22/T    12/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through
      Sunday evening FOR ZONES 127>133.
WY...Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through
      Sunday evening FOR ZONE 274.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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