Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 212052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
252 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

High pressure was building in over the region today as a shortwave
continued to move off to the east through North Dakota and
southern Canada. Winds were gradually decreasing across the west
as surface pressure gradients continued to relax. High clouds
were streaming over the area with temperatures in the 60s across
most of the lower elevations with heights building aloft.

A disturbance will move into the Northern Rockies tonight,
dragging a Pacific cold front across the area late tonight and
Saturday. Winds will shift out of the northwest and become gusty
with the frontal passage. Most of the energy associated with this
disturbance will stay north of the area. As a result, there is
just a slight chance for some showers across northwestern portions
for the first half of Saturday. The aforementioned disturbance
will help flatten the ridge over the Northern Rockies allowing
temperatures to be near to a few degrees cooler than Friday. Dry
conditions and above normal temperatures will persist through
Sunday as ridging amplifies over the region. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Models were in good agreement through Wednesday, but diverge
beyond that. The difference involves the flattening of the upper
ridge at mid week. The GFS was much more aggressive in sending
energy across southern Canada and flattening the ridge Wednesday
night into Thursday. The ECMWF keeps the ridge in place over the
Rockies into next Saturday. The bold disagreement in model
solution lends to less confidence in the forecast beyond next

From Monday through Wednesday, should be looking at a mild and
dry pattern. Anticyclonic flow will weaken waves as they push up
from the southwest and provide subsidence for little in the way of
a chance for precipitation. Some "monsoonlike" moisture will
spread over the area Sunday and maintain a connection through
Tuesday. These mid level clouds may keep temperatures down a bit,
but downslope mid level flow should allow highs to reach above
climate normals. Will keep precipitation chances confined to the
mountains and the far west and emphasize Tuesday and Tuesday night
for the "best" chance as a weakening wave swings across northern
Montana and pushes a weak boundary through the area. TWH



VFR conditions expected into Saturday morning. A few mid to high
level clouds will float through, but are not expected to provide
precipitation or obscure area mountains. Southwest winds will gust
to 20-25kts at KLVM. TWH



    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
BIL 043/063 039/062 043/068 044/066 045/064 044/061 042/058
    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 039/062 035/064 042/066 043/064 042/062 041/061 040/058
    01/B    00/B    01/B    12/W    22/W    22/W    21/B
HDN 039/064 037/065 039/070 042/068 042/066 040/063 040/059
    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 039/063 037/061 039/065 042/065 043/063 040/059 039/055
    00/N    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 038/069 036/064 040/071 042/068 042/065 040/063 041/059
    00/N    00/U    00/B    01/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 036/064 034/058 037/063 038/064 040/062 038/058 035/054
    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 033/067 034/064 040/070 040/066 039/065 039/064 037/059
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B




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