Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 251921
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
121 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ON TAP AS NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO FALL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE LOW
SUPPORTING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
THIS ALLOWS A SURFACE TROUGH TO LAY ALONG A BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN
AXIS BY MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WARM START TOMORROW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB RAPIDLY IN THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE 80S
TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT A CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW A WIND SHIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

UPSTREAM AN UPPER LOW TRACKING INTO CALIFORNIA LATE ON FRIDAY
STARTS PUMPING SOME MOISTURE UP INTO WESTERN MONTANA WITH RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
WEST OF BIG TIMBER FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH KEEPS
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...BUT
ITS NOT TOO DRAMATIC. SETS STAGE FOR A COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY LESS THAN 70 THOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE
WARMER. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN AREA BUT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW...SO BILLINGS IS LIKELY NOT TO
SEE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES INCREASE
ON SATURDAY EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOISTURE
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN ZONES. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

DESPITE GOOD AGREEMENT YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...RECENT TRENDS IN
THE GFS HAVE PUT GFS SOLUTION AND EC/GEM SOLUTIONS AT ODDS AGAIN
FOR THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. DPROG/DT ON GFS SOLUTION
REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TREND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL
DESPITE THE NEARING TIME WINDOW.

THE CONSISTENT PIECE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION THAT IS GENERATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE SPLIT IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. THE PLACEMENT OF
THIS RAIN EVENT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA ON SATURDAY...WITH
SOME LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL REACH ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME CERTAINTY THAT LOCATIONS
WEST OF BILLINGS...KLVM AND HARLOWTON...WILL SEE A RAINY DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS LIKE KMLS AND KBHK ARE STILL
LOOKING FOR WARMER AND DRIER DAY. AS THAT JET SHIFTS EASTWARD BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF
CENTRAL ZONES TO PICK UP SOME PRECIPITATION.

AFTER THIS POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...WITH THE EC/GEM/NAM
SOLUTIONS PRODUCING A VERY WET PERIOD FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY ROTATES INTO THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF THE
CUT-OFF LOW TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS TRENDED SO
STRONGLY SOUTH AND WEST THAT THIS ENERGY REMAINS TRAPPED SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE CUT-OFF LOW.

THE MAIN TAKE-AWAY FROM THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD BE THAT
SATURDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DISTINCT SHIFT
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND TO START THE WORK WEEK. DAYS WITHOUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD RUN
IN THE 60S...WHILE SUNDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE THE LOW 50S SHOULD
AN ALL DAY PRECIPITATION EVEN ACTUALLY EVOLVE. THIS FORECAST
REMAINS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS POINT...AND WILL BEAR CONTINUAL
WATCHING UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED.

CHURCH

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/084 054/065 048/054 046/063 048/065 044/058 040/057
    00/U    23/T    66/T    63/T    32/T    23/W    22/W
LVM 052/080 046/063 045/057 041/064 042/063 036/056 033/059
    02/T    46/T    76/T    65/T    42/T    33/W    33/W
HDN 055/086 052/072 048/058 044/066 046/066 043/061 039/060
    00/U    12/T    65/T    53/T    32/T    23/W    22/W
MLS 059/089 054/076 051/059 045/064 046/063 044/062 040/059
    00/U    11/B    45/T    54/T    33/T    22/W    22/W
4BQ 059/091 054/079 052/062 047/064 046/061 042/059 039/057
    00/U    01/U    33/T    54/T    32/T    22/W    22/W
BHK 057/089 053/081 051/061 043/062 044/062 042/059 038/056
    00/U    01/U    34/T    44/T    43/T    22/W    21/B
SHR 054/086 050/074 049/059 042/064 043/062 039/057 036/055
    00/U    01/B    55/T    64/T    32/T    33/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.