Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 241451
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
851 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS
MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY MOVE
OUT ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTAIN LITTLE
RAINFALL SO DRY LIGHTING WILL BE A THREAT. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL
BRING DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A HIGH BASED DRY STORM OR TWO
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFTING TO AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS BY EARLY EVENING. RISING HEIGHTS LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES OVER 12C WILL REALLY WORK AGAINST
CONVECTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD BASES
WELL ABOVE 12KFT. WILL PUT IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
ABOUT BIG HORN COUNTY IN THE EVENING BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE JUST AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 90 WITH LOW TO MID 90S
ON TUESDAY. SLUG OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG SMOKE FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES INTO THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING LESS SMOKE...BUT WINDS DON`T LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX IT ALL OUT. MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD THIN SMOKE OUT FURTHER.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL DRY OUT GRASSES ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASE FIRE
DANGERS. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE THIS WEEK. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MADE A FEW POP ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS. MODELS WERE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE PATTERN
FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD WHEN ENSEMBLES STARTED SHOWING INCREASING
SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WED AND THU AND THEN FELL OUT OF SYNC DUE TO
THEIR DIFFERENT HANDLING OF A PACIFIC COAST TROUGH. TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IN THE PACIFIC HAVE RESULTED IN MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN FOR MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS.

JET DIVERGENCE AND A STRONG WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WED INTO
WED NIGHT UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF /0.75/ TO 1 INCH...AND THE SREF SUGGESTED POSSIBLE
1000+ J/KG CAPE OVER THE AREA WITH DECENT SHEAR IN THE SE. THUS
HAVE INCREASED POPS WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT. ALSO HAD POPS
OVER THE E THU MORNING AS THE WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA. KEPT LOW POPS
OVER THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND WEAK ENERGY OVER THE AREA.

SW FLOW INCREASED OVER THE AREA ON FRI ON THE GFS...WHILE THE
ECMWF MAINTAINED AN UPPER RIDGE. ON SAT THE GFS BROUGHT STRONG
ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD WEAK SW FLOW. THEN ON
SUN THE GFS BUILT A RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF MOVED A
STRONG TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. DIFFERENCES CONTINUED THROUGH MON.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN...WENT CLOSE TO CLIMO POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

KEPT HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S THROUGH SAT...THEN WENT WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON...BASED ON MODEL BLENDS.
ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH SMOKE WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WEST OF MILES CITY. FEW DRY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 059/093 062/090 062/088 061/087 060/086 058/081
    0/K 10/K    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 092 052/093 055/088 054/086 054/083 054/082 050/077
    1/T 11/T    14/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 093 055/096 058/094 061/090 060/090 059/089 057/084
    0/K 10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 088 056/095 060/096 064/088 061/091 062/090 060/085
    0/U 00/U    02/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 087 055/097 058/094 061/084 058/088 058/089 058/084
    0/U 00/U    12/T    33/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 082 051/091 054/092 061/083 056/089 058/089 058/084
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 092 051/096 054/091 055/086 053/088 054/088 052/083
    0/K 00/U    13/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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