Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 171540
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
940 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
AREAS OF FOG LINGERING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES. THICK AREA OF STRATUS ALSO PRESENT OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN AND DID
INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN SKY GRIDS FOR THE EAST. BELIEVE THE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE TODAY DUE TO MINIMAL MIXING
AND THIS MAY IMPACT TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY EAST. WAS TEMPTED TO
LOWER HIGHS TODAY DUE TO THE FACT THAT READINGS WERE STARTING OUT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE...AND WITH LIMITED
MIXING...BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO WARM THROUGH THE DAY AND THAT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FORECAST HIGHS TO BE REACHED. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

LOW CIGS PERSIST IN EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA THIS
MORNING...INCLUDING KMLS AND KBHK AREAS...WITH PATCHY FOG IN SOME
LOCATIONS.THESE LOWER CIGS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE
MORNING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT TODAY TO BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH A COOLER START TO THE DAY AND LESS MIXING
POTENTIAL. ONLY LOW 60S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR HIGHS TODAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE FELT ON SATURDAY...WITH LOW 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAINLY MANIFESTS
AS A WIND SHIFT LINE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH DRY FORECAST FOR BOTH OF
THESE DISTURBANCES...IN LARGE PART DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

VERY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY PER WEAK/
SPLITTING PACIFIC ENERGY. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW...LIFTING THE ASCENT NORTH OF US QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
KEEPING SOUTHERN SPLIT TO OUR SOUTH AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL SEE A PUSH OF PACIFIC COLD
ADVECTION AND SOME WIND BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF CHANCE OF ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR OUR CWA. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT POP FOR THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD CONSENSUS FOR UPPER RIDGING AND
LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING BY THEN.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE
WARM PRIOR TO THE TUESDAY NIGHT FROPA. AFTER A VERY MODEST COOL
DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND AGAIN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

ON THE SIDE...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL
STORM ANA IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS STORM WILL PASS NEAR HAWAII
THIS WEEKEND THEN MOVE TO SOMEWHERE NEAR 25N 165W BY NEXT WED/THU.
ECMWF/GFS THEN TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM ANA IN THE SW FLOW WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE PAC NW TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ALL MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE OUR CWA MISSING OUT ON THIS MOISTURE...AND A RIDGE
OVER US IS CERTAINLY FAVORED WITH LOWS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...BUT DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ANA COULD
ALTER THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLIGHTLY BEYOND DAY 7. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH MIDDAY AT KMLS. SOME IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF WITH
THE HEATING FROM THE SUN. OTHERWISE...QUITE WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 044/072 044/070 046/075 048/074 047/066 043/069
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    21/B    11/U
LVM 062 042/071 042/071 044/074 046/072 041/063 041/066
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/U
HDN 063 039/074 042/072 043/076 043/076 044/066 039/070
    0/U 00/E    00/U    00/U    00/U    22/W    11/U
MLS 059 038/070 043/070 044/074 044/075 046/066 041/068
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    11/U
4BQ 059 039/070 042/070 042/075 044/075 046/064 039/068
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    11/U
BHK 054 033/064 040/068 038/070 042/072 044/064 039/066
    0/B 00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    11/U
SHR 060 036/073 039/073 039/077 042/078 042/065 036/070
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    22/W    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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