Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 241548
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
848 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR A COUPLE OF AREAS. WAVE THAT
BROUGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT TO SOUTHEAST MONTANA HAS DIVED SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS IS PUSHING THE BETTER RETURNS INTO WYOMING SO
LOWERED POPS ON THE MONTANA SIDE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS AIDING
SNOWFALL OVER THE BIG HORNS SO INCREASED SNOW CHANCES UP THERE BUT
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES DID NOT ADD MUCH TO ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY WARMER ENOUGH TO PERMIT FULL MIXING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SO RAISED WINDS THIS MORNING
AND TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR WESTERN AREAS AROUND
NOON AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE OF WINDS IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT
INTO THE DAKOTAS. ADDITIONALLY THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. THE AREAS IN BETWEEN WILL LIKELY STAY DRY
AS DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY.

WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASE AT LIVINGSTON AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE STRONGEST AROUND SUNRISE TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE RIDGE START TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AGAIN. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY
IN PLACE. ALSO...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AN INVERSION
EXISTS JUST BELOW THAT. CURRENTLY THINKING MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
NOT MIX TO SURFACE...AND DO NOT HAVE ANY HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR THE
PLAINS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE GUSTY.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN THE WARM UP THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE BRINGS IN
WARMER WEATHER. WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...THE DOWNSLOPING WILL
HELP TO BRING THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES DOWN. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

A BENIGN START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RETURN OF WINTER BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO UTAH AND WYOMING WEAKENING THE
RIDGE AND PUSHING A BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/ENERGY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST IT OPENS THE DOOR
FOR A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO PUSH THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY USHERING IN SOME COOLER AIR AND SOME LOW POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SETS UP
BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM FOR A CONTINUED COOLING TREND THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS VEERS THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH AND
OPENS THE DOOR FOR WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF ARCTIC IMPULSES TO
DROP INTO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRENDED TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE. IF LATEST
GFS IS CORRECT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS RESULTING IN POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF KMLS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
COMMON TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 KTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS OF THE STATE. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY TODAY FROM BIG TIMBER TO KLVM AND ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS WITH SPEEDS OF
30-40KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 55KTS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 037/052 038/054 036/053 037/049 028/042 027/039
    1/N 11/N    00/N    00/U    12/W    21/B    12/O
LVM 052 037/055 038/055 036/053 036/048 028/044 026/041
    1/N 31/N    00/N    00/N    13/W    21/B    12/R
HDN 047 030/049 028/051 029/050 033/047 025/041 024/038
    2/W 21/B    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B    12/O
MLS 046 028/046 031/049 030/049 032/043 024/038 024/034
    2/W 11/B    00/B    00/U    11/B    11/B    13/S
4BQ 048 028/049 033/051 030/050 031/046 024/039 023/038
    3/W 21/B    00/B    00/U    12/W    11/B    13/O
BHK 044 024/043 031/047 028/048 030/041 023/035 020/034
    3/W 11/E    10/B    00/U    01/N    11/B    13/S
SHR 048 029/051 032/056 030/051 027/046 024/040 020/037
    3/W 21/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    31/B    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
      ZONES 41-65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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