Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 250106
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
706 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...

MADE A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO EXPEND POPS OVER WESTERN
ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHWEST...NEAR HARLOWTON. SHOWERS DO APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED...BUT DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH SHOWERS OCCURRING AND
UNREPRESENTATIVE FORECAST POPS. KEPT POPS LOW AS A RESULT OF
RAPID LIFE CYCLE OF SHOWERS...AND LIMITED COVERAGE AT ANY ONE
TIME. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

A WEAK WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FROM THIS WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATES 90 AND 94. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A MORE RIDGY PATTERN DEVELOPS HOWEVER THE MAIN AXIS WILL
BE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE AREA REMAINING IN
A BIT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE MAINLY MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY
NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND BEHIND IT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
READINGS SURGING INTO THE 90S OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS TAKE THE THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE DAKOTAS...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
AIR TO SLIP IN QUICKER. THIS WILL BE A TIMING THING AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND GENERATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT
WILL THEN RIP THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CAUSE SOME
GUSTS TO APPROACH 50 MPH. THESE WINDS...ALONG WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD CREATE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.

THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AS THE LOW WRAPS UP. THE SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND CREATE A STRONG GRADIENT FOR TUESDAY.
850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40KTS. LOOKS TO BE A WINDY DAY.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INHIBIT SOME
OF THESE WINDS FROM SURFACING. THE GRADIENT ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO GET SOME GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ON TUESDAY. RAISED WINDS A BIT MORE
FOR THIS EVENT. ALSO RAISED POPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THIS
SYSTEM. ADDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ON TUESDAY AS WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES.

A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD OF WEATHER TAKES OVER ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND IN A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AMPLIFIES A BIT. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. THESE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/091 061/090 060/080 054/073 055/084 057/090 060/090
    21/B    11/B    24/T    43/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 056/088 053/088 053/073 048/071 049/082 051/087 053/088
    22/T    12/T    35/T    53/T    21/U    11/U    11/B
HDN 065/093 059/093 058/087 053/074 054/086 056/092 059/092
    21/B    11/B    23/T    43/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 065/094 064/094 064/091 057/074 056/085 058/092 060/092
    12/T    11/B    24/T    43/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 063/092 062/094 064/094 055/076 055/085 057/091 059/091
    22/T    11/B    22/T    33/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 060/091 060/092 062/092 056/074 054/082 055/089 057/088
    13/T    12/T    24/T    43/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 058/090 056/093 056/086 051/072 050/082 053/088 055/088
    32/T    11/B    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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