Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 191518
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
918 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.UPDATE...

High pressure ridging will build over the forecast area today.
Although a few clouds will move over the area, conditions will be
dry under mostly sunny skies. Winds will finally be lighter and
less gusty than the past several days. Temperatures will warm to
seasonal values in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Hooley

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Tue...

Today will be dry across the area as an upper level ridge continues
to build over the Northern Rockies. This will let temperatures
today climb in to the 80s across much of the area. The ridge will
begin to break down tomorrow as a shortwave flattens it out. Ahead
of this, temperatures will once again be in the lower 90s for
much of the area.

Tomorrow evening a cold front will cross the area, along with
some thunderstorms. Models are still showing a marginal chance
that some of these storms could be strong to severe. The NAM has a
much more moist solution through the column. As such, it develops
much more CAPE than the GFS. In either solution, the CIN is still
fairly high, along with fairly limited shear. The low-levels will
still be fairly dry, with westerly winds throughout much of the
day. This will result in a potential for some gusty winds to
develop with any of these storms, and will not rule out the
possibility of some hail as well.

Hydrology, given the warm temperatures over the next couple of
days rivers will again see increased flows. Most rivers should see
rises, and possibly some bank erosion, but no flooding. The
Clarks fork will see the greatest rises. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

No major changes to the going forecast. After a very warm Tuesday
will see temperatures trend lower through the end of the week as
heights aloft drop and a Canadian upper low drops south into the
area by Friday. Temperatures go from the 90s Tuesday to the 80s
Wednesday, 70s Thursday and possibly 60s for Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures begin to warm Sunday into Monday as flow shifts from
northerly to southwesterly aloft. Precipitation chances will be
limited through most of the extended with the best chances being
Friday as the upper low drops into the region. Models are hinting
at a stronger closed low system for early to mid next week.
Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

No hazards to aviation interests anticipated today with VFR
conditions across the region. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 082 059/092 062/083 051/077 048/067 044/067 047/079
    0/U 01/U    11/U    21/U    23/T    32/T    21/U
LVM 081 054/088 053/078 043/072 041/065 036/065 039/077
    0/U 01/U    12/T    21/U    23/T    32/T    21/U
HDN 083 056/095 061/084 052/078 049/069 045/068 047/080
    0/U 01/U    21/U    21/U    23/T    32/T    21/U
MLS 082 058/094 064/082 053/076 049/068 045/067 048/078
    0/U 00/U    31/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    21/U
4BQ 080 056/093 062/083 053/076 048/069 044/065 045/076
    0/U 00/U    21/U    21/U    22/T    22/T    21/U
BHK 078 052/090 060/081 051/074 047/066 042/065 044/073
    0/U 00/B    31/N    11/U    22/T    22/T    21/U
SHR 078 054/090 057/081 050/075 046/068 041/064 042/075
    0/U 01/U    21/U    21/U    23/T    32/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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