Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 222038
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
238 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND INTO THE DAKOTAS
TODAY. THE REMAINS OF THAT SYSTEM ARE STILL BEING FELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING WRAP
AROUND RAIN NEAR BAKER WITH WIND GUSTS TO 48 MPH JUST BEFORE 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES HAVE REMAINED MUCH LOWER THAN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. MILES CITY WAS AT 54
AND BAKER AT A MERE 49 DEGREES...WHILE THE SUN IS MANAGING TO
PEAK THROUGH SOME CLOUDS AT BILLINGS...WHERE IT WAS 61 AT 2 PM.

BACK TO THE WINDS...MODELS ARE SHOWING 850 MB WINDS FROM 40 TO 50
KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH VERY GOOD MIXING AT THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ENABLING THE TRANSFER OF THOSE VALUES TO
THE SURFACE. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS FOR THE SREF AND GFS MODELS
ARE SHOWING WIND VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED OUT
THERE TODAY. THE WINDS SHOULD START TO SLACKEN AS MIXING IS
DIMINISHED AROUND 6 PM LOCAL TIME OUT EAST...AND SETTLE IN AT
AROUND 15 MPH SUSTAINED INTO THE NIGHT.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER
MOST OF THE CWA. THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR UP AND ALLOW SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER NIGHT. ADJUSTED MIN
TEMPS...ACCORDINGLY...DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY WILL MARK THE RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE
BEGINNING OF A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOWARDS THE END OF EXTENDED PERIOD AS
THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS CONTINUES TO DISTURB
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...RIDGING AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE HOLD AS LONG WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THIS SOLUTION SO DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM OUR NORMAL BLEND.
THIS WILL YIELD LOW TO MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AS THE EURO
RETROGRADES THE PACIFIC TROUGH WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE TROUGH
AND TRIES TO EJECT IT EASTWARD. FOR THE EURO SOLUTION THIS WOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWING THE GFS SOLUTION THIS WOULD COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY AND GIVE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR
NOW USED OUR NORMAL BLEND OF MODELS UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY CAN SHOW
ITSELF IN THE FORECAST. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS HAVE DEPARTED THE AREA EXCEPT FOR TERMINALS NEAR KMLS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON KMLS WILL RESIDE ON THE BORDER
OF MVFR/VFR WITH 3 KFT CIGS. TERMINALS EAST OF AND INCLUDING KBIL
WILL HAVE STRONG WINDS NEARING 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30 EVEN 40 KNOTS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN CALMING DOWN ON THE WINDS BUT STRONG GUSTS
NEARING 25-30 KNOTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL 06Z TONIGHT. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/078 053/090 059/093 062/093 062/090 061/088 060/091
    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/B
LVM 038/083 048/091 053/089 055/089 055/087 054/085 054/087
    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B    22/T    22/T    21/B
HDN 042/080 049/091 055/095 061/095 061/093 060/089 059/093
    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/B
MLS 042/074 048/088 057/094 061/096 063/093 062/088 061/092
    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/B
4BQ 044/073 051/087 057/093 060/094 061/091 060/086 059/089
    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/B
BHK 039/072 044/083 052/087 058/090 060/088 059/084 057/086
    10/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/B
SHR 039/079 046/091 052/091 056/092 057/088 056/085 054/088
    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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