Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 250941
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
341 AM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

A POSITIVELY TILTED AND VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS PLACED
FROM ARIZONA INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. 592DM HEIGHT OVER
WYOMING AND COLORADO...WHICH IS EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE WAS DRIVING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. THUS...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE. RECORD HIGHS
LOOK TO BE EITHER TIED OR EXCEEDED MOST PLACES AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES COAST IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND GRAZE
WESTERN ZONES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW POP CHANCES WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL ZONES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY LOOKS TO BE
THE REAL QUESTION INITIALLY AS THE AIRMASS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
MOISTEN UP WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS TODAY AND WATER VAPOR WAS
NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A MONSOON TAP AT THE MOMENT. SURFACE WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS. THIS WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
BUT STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AREA WHERE IT BECOMES CLOSED OFF DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR A COOL NORTHEAST AND EAST
UPSLOPE FLOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES OPEN AND
MORE DIFFUSE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
OVERALL...A BROAD TROUGH AND UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL
PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 058/084 054/065 048/057 045/062 046/063 043/059
    0/U 00/U    23/T    66/T    63/T    32/T    22/W
LVM 088 052/080 046/063 045/059 042/060 041/060 036/059
    0/N 02/T    46/T    66/T    65/T    42/T    33/W
HDN 092 055/086 052/072 048/062 045/066 043/066 042/062
    0/U 00/U    12/T    55/T    54/T    32/T    22/W
MLS 093 059/087 054/076 051/064 047/065 045/066 042/062
    0/U 00/U    11/B    44/T    44/T    32/T    22/W
4BQ 094 059/089 054/079 052/068 048/065 045/065 044/061
    0/U 00/U    01/U    23/T    54/T    32/T    22/W
BHK 091 057/087 053/081 051/066 046/064 043/062 041/060
    0/U 00/U    01/U    33/T    44/T    42/T    22/W
SHR 092 054/085 050/074 049/063 042/064 040/062 037/058
    0/U 00/U    01/B    45/T    64/T    32/T    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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