Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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209
FXUS65 KBYZ 180206
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
806 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.UPDATE...

No changes to the going forecast this evening. With deepening
surface trof will see an increased west to southwest wind tonight
that will help hold temperatures up and prevent fog development.
Periods of high cloud cover will cross the area but mostly clear
skies should be the rule outside of the mountains and foothills.
Chambers

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...

Dry weather expected tonight under zonal flow aloft. Low
temperatures should generally be in the 40s. Dry weather continues
on Monday for the bulk of the CWA out ahead of an upper Pacific
trough and surface cold front. Expect highs in the 70s to near 80F
on Monday. Well-mixed SW winds will increase ahead of the front
in our west, and could see gusts near 50 mph across our western
foothills including at Livingston.

The Pacific trough will move eastward on Monday, with showers and
isolated thunderstorms possible first in our western areas late
Monday afternoon. Then the cold front associated with the trof
will bring a good chance of showers along with some frontal wind
across the area Monday night. Expect snow levels to fall to
6500-7000 feet over our western mountains by late Monday night or
early Tuesday, so there will be snow accumulation over the high
terrain. This includes the Beartooth Pass.

Cyclonic flow aloft keeps scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms and mountain snow showers in the forecast for
Tuesday. Then a brief drying trend begins Tuesday night for the
lower elevations. Windy conditions are expected in the Livingston
area again late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as a surface high
builds over northwest WY. Tuesday will be cooler with high
temperatures in the 50s. RMS/BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

Active weather pattern will prevail through the extended forecast
period beginning Wednesday. An upper level trough will remain
persistent over the Northwest with several disturbances passing
through this flow through the week. This will bring above normal
rain chances Wednesday through Friday across Montana. The main
forecast concerns will be strong winds on Wednesday in our western
foothills around Livingston, Big Timber, and Nye. Don`t have
advisory level winds currently, but this is something that will
need to be watched as gusts from cross-winds near 50 to 55 mph. We
are also watching additional chances for high elevation mountain
snowfall and widespread precipitation as another storm system
moves into the region Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures will cool off through the end of the week as rain
chances increase and cooler air moves in from the north.
Temperatures in the 60s on Wednesday will cool off into the 40s by
Friday with increased rain chances. Cool temperatures could
persist into the upcoming weekend as some models want to keep the
trough entrenched in the Northwest through the early part of the
weekend. Dobbs
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The only
aviation hazard expected are increased winds across the
Beartooth/Absaroka foothills after 06z with gusts around 30 kts at
times from KLVM to Nye. These gusty winds will continue through
the day Monday. Dobbs/Hooley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/076 046/057 041/065 042/053 037/047 037/051 036/054
    00/B    65/T    21/B    24/W    76/W    32/W    22/W
LVM 044/067 037/053 037/054 034/047 030/045 028/046 029/051
    02/T    74/T    35/W    54/W    55/W    32/W    22/W
HDN 045/079 046/059 038/068 040/056 037/050 036/053 036/056
    00/B    54/T    21/B    24/W    76/W    32/W    22/W
MLS 045/080 047/060 039/069 042/059 038/054 036/055 037/060
    00/B    34/W    20/B    22/W    55/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 045/079 047/058 036/070 042/058 037/051 037/053 035/057
    00/U    34/T    20/U    23/W    65/W    32/W    22/W
BHK 044/077 047/059 038/069 043/061 039/054 036/055 037/058
    00/U    23/W    20/U    21/B    65/W    32/W    22/W
SHR 044/077 044/054 033/067 037/052 033/047 031/049 031/051
    00/B    45/T    21/B    23/W    75/W    32/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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