Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 230032
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
632 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

WE DROPPED CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTIES FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH AS THE AIR MASS THERE HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
STORMS. WE LEFT THE WATCH UP FOR CARTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES
FOR NOW SINCE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME AGITATED CUMULUS THERE
STILL AS OF 0030 UTC...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE STORMS NEAR
BILLINGS WILL SURVIVE FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WELL. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THREE MAIN
PIECES TO THE CONVECTIVE PUZZLE STILL IN PLAY. THE FIRST PIECE IS
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LIFTING
INTO GLASGOWS FORECAST AREA. THAT FORCING HAS KICKED OFF AN
ISOLATED CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ROSEBUD
COUNTY. THE CUMULUS FIELD IS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD BAKER. GIVEN THAT SOME STORMS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN THE
CAP...CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAT MORE STORMS COULD DEVELOP
TOWARD BAKER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECOND PIECE IS A WEAK WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING...WHICH HAS BEEN PERTURBING THE
CUMULUS FIELD NEAR CODY AND ACROSS THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. THIS IS
THE WAVE THAT COULD FORCE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE THIRD PIECE OF
THE PUZZLE IS THE WEAK WAVE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
CURRENTLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
NEAR VIRGINIA CITY TO BUTTE. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD
TOWARD BILLINGS BY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS.

FOR TOMORROW...THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
AROUND 700 MB WILL MAKE FOR ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS WE HAVE SEEN
THIS YEAR. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP MOST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA WHERE THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO BREAK THE CAP TOMORROW WITH SUCH WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE.

THURSDAY WILL RIVAL WEDNESDAY IN TERMS OF HEAT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL FOSTER DOWNSLOPE AND
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. THIS COULD PUSH MANY LOCATIONS CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES AGAIN. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AT
THIS POINT WE CHOSE TO STICK WITH STRONG WORDING THE HWO AND FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST AND TO FOREGO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. MODEL
CONSENSUS ACTUALLY KEEPS THE TRACK OF THE 500 MB LOW SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS...MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM AND EC.
THIS MORE NORTHERN TRACK DECREASES THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND
FIELD OVER THE BILLINGS CWA AND THUS KEEPING US BELOW CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE IF ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BECOME NECESSARY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
LARGE-SCALE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL AMPLIFY BY THIS
WEEKEND WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE NATION
AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED WESTERN TROUGH. THE RESULT IS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S F FRI THROUGH SUN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MIXING ON FRI MAY
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THAT DAY...BUT THEN THE HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL
RELAX OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE 500-MB RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ONCE MORE. THAT SCENARIO COULD YIELD SOME ISOLATED STORMS
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT OUR CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE IS LOW SO OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WE HAVE A DRY FORE-
CAST IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...700-MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO
THE +12 TO +14 C RANGE AGAIN BY MON AND TUE...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY
RISE ABOVE 90 F AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY UNTIL 06 UTC. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AND STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
COULD OCCUR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT. EXPECT VFR
WEATHER TO RULE AFTER 06 UTC AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/098 066/098 057/084 057/084 058/086 059/089 061/091
    21/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 055/099 056/091 049/082 048/083 049/087 051/089 055/090
    21/U    11/N    10/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 059/100 062/101 057/086 056/086 057/087 057/091 059/092
    21/B    11/G    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 065/098 067/097 059/084 058/084 058/085 059/088 060/090
    32/T    21/U    21/U    11/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 061/098 064/100 058/085 057/085 057/084 058/087 059/089
    32/T    21/U    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 060/091 062/096 057/082 053/082 053/082 054/083 056/085
    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 057/098 059/098 053/084 053/084 053/084 054/087 055/087
    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 36-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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