Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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820
FXUS65 KBYZ 180924
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
324 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Tue...

Overall today should be hot and dry with a few mountain showers.
However, out in the east there will be some significant
instability, on the order of 2000 to 3000 J/kg. There will also
be decent deep layer shear. However with a generally capped
environment not expecting much to develop. With the convection
last evening that is still linger in Fallon county, maybe a
boundary is hanging around that could serve as a focus. However
the high resolution guidance is suggesting that the cap will hold.
If some thing were to form it could have the potential to be
severe given the instability and shear.

Tomorrow will again have a chance for some mountain shower
activity. Otherwise expecting another hot and dry day for
southern Montana. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

The extended continues to look hot and an generally dry. With the
main ridge axis remaining to the east of the area, the western
zones will still be under some what southwesterly flow. This flow
will continue to be able to tap into some more moist monsoonal
flow. This will result in a slight chance of some afternoon
showers or isolated thunderstorm. These will not produce much
rainfall and if there are thunderstorms, it could be a dry
lightning issue. Temperatures will remain above normal through the
week.

The next significant change will be friday as a shortwave moves
across the US/Canadian border which will flatten the ridge out
into zonal flow. This will give much of the area a chance for some
rain. Flow will remain more zonal through the weekend so some
scattered activity is possible. By early next week things should
begin to dry out as the ridge begins to work back in. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail across the area today. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible from KBHK and north early this morning
and should exit into North Dakota by 14z. A few storms will occur
over and near the mountains this afternoon into this evening with
MVFR/IFR conditions. Expect localized areas of mountain
obscuration today. Winds will be gusty near KSHR through about 12z
this morning, and near KLVM for much of the day today. RMS/Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 097 063/099 063/097 062/094 063/090 059/090 060/091
    1/U 11/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    21/B    11/U
LVM 096 053/096 053/095 052/094 051/088 049/089 050/090
    2/T 11/U    21/U    11/U    12/T    21/B    11/U
HDN 099 059/100 061/099 060/095 060/091 057/092 057/092
    1/U 11/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    21/B    11/U
MLS 099 066/101 067/100 065/095 064/091 060/091 062/092
    1/U 10/G    11/U    11/U    12/T    21/B    11/B
4BQ 099 064/100 065/100 063/096 063/093 060/091 061/092
    1/U 21/U    11/U    11/U    11/B    11/B    22/T
BHK 094 063/098 063/097 062/093 061/090 057/087 058/089
    1/U 20/U    11/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 101 059/100 059/101 059/097 058/091 055/090 055/091
    1/G 11/U    11/G    11/U    11/B    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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